NBA 2019 Hot Reads (539 views)

[eric]

projections based on current record and pythagorean win/loss going forward:

1 69 Milwaukee Bucks
2 62 Toronto Raptors
3 57 Charlotte Hornets
4 55 Indiana Pacers
5 53 Boston Celtics
6 44 Philadelphia 76ers
7 40 Miami Heat
8 35 Detroit Pistons
--- ---
9 34 New York Knicks
10 30 Brooklyn Nets
11 22 Chicago Bulls 
12 21 Atlanta Hawks
13 15 Washington Wizards 
14 15 Cleveland Cavaliers 
15 15 Orlando Magic 


1 69 Golden State Warriors
2 65 Denver Nuggets
3 57 Portland Trail Blazers
4 54 Los Angeles Clippers
5 54 Memphis Grizzlies
6 50 San Antonio Spurs
7 49 Sacramento Kings
8 44 Oklahoma City Thunder
--- ---
9 43 Utah Jazz
10 41 Los Angeles Lakers
11 37 New Orleans Pelicans
12 32 Minnesota Timberwolves
13 27 Houston Rockets 
14 26 Dallas Mavericks 
15 12 Phoenix Suns 
We don't have Real Plus Minus yet (oh darn!) but here are the leaders just with Win Shares and Wins Produced.

3.00 Stephen Curry
2.70 Kevin Durant
2.59 Kyle Lowry
2.52 Rudy Gobert
2.44 Nikola Jokic
2.31 Kemba Walker
2.15 DeAndre Jordan
2.14 LeBron James
2.05 Nemanja Bjelica
1.92 Eric Bledsoe
Curry - Lowry - Jokic - Bledsoe - Durant is your ten game MVP ballot!

.

The Great Luka Doncic is as predicted an instant star, putting up a cool .04 WS/48. What on earth were the Suns thinking, drafting a crummy 16 ppg 11 rpg big shooting 63% from the field and 75% from the line? Yeah great he finishes at 89% at the rim, but once teams start game planning and stop him from dunking everything, how's he going to get by with a Dirk-level 46% jump shot? You can't teach the kind of playmaking Doncic has. How many rookies do you think put up 4 turnovers and not even 5 assists per game, huh? The great Ron Harper and Dread Lord James son of Jack may have combined for zero All-NBA appearances, and zero All-Star games, but uh... LOL nice job Phoenix!!!

It's all moot anyway, given how much worse their teams are they have no real shot at stopping Ben Simmons from defending his Rookie of the Year title.

Speaking of, the Sixers starting backcourt is currently averaging 0.4 made threes per game.
The last NBA champion backcourt to make only that many were your 1986 Boston Celtics.
Seems like an issue.

[eric]

updated math stuff
1 65 Milwaukee Bucks
2 61 Toronto Raptors
3 50 Indiana Pacers
4 50 Charlotte Hornets
5 48 Boston Celtics
6 43 Philadelphia 76ers
7 40 Detroit Pistons
8 37 Orlando Magic
--- ---
9 37 Brooklyn Nets
10 36 Miami Heat 
11 26 Washington Wizards 
12 23 New York Knicks 
13 19 Cleveland Cavaliers 
14 17 Chicago Bulls 
15 16 Atlanta Hawks 


1 58 Portland Trail Blazers
2 57 Denver Nuggets
3 56 Golden State Warriors
4 55 Oklahoma City Thunder
5 53 Los Angeles Clippers
6 49 Memphis Grizzlies
7 46 New Orleans Pelicans
8 45 Los Angeles Lakers
--- ---
9 44 Dallas Mavericks 
10 42 San Antonio Spurs
11 41 Houston Rockets
12 39 Utah Jazz 
13 36 Sacramento Kings 
14 31 Minnesota Timberwolves 
15 16 Phoenix Suns 

2.78 Kyle Lowry
2.69 Kevin Durant
2.61 LeBron James
2.58 Nikola Jokic
2.56 Damian Lillard
2.50 Rudy Gobert
2.42 Joel Embiid
2.16 Stephen Curry
2.14 Kyrie Irving
2.11 Nikola Vucevic
Now with RPM! Your MVP ballot: Lowry - Jokic - Lillard - Middleton (not pictured) - Durant

Doncic can still shoot and not pass - although he's gotten just under the 4 turnover per game line with a mere 59 through 15 played.

Simmons can still pass and not shoot - somehow attempting EVEN LESS jumpers this year, with only 11% of his field goal attempts coming beyond ten feet compared to last year's 21%.

Anthony Davis still puts up big numbers and the Pelicans still stink on defense, now 22nd in the league in DRtg

[eric]

Gordon Hayward

first seven years:
37% from three, 64% at the rim, 5% of attempts are dunks, .39 free throw attempts per field goal attempt

this year:
30% from three, 59% at the rim, 3% of attempts are dunks, .23 free throw attempts per field goal attempt

.

last three healthy years:
.17 ws/48, .18 wp/48, +3.3 offensive box plus minus, 20 PER on 27 USG

this year:
.11 ws/48, .16 wp/48, -1.1 offensive box plus minus, 14 PER on 19 USG

.

The overall numbers don't show that severe a decline (although they all do), and the decline in the ancillary numbers could just as easily be fitting into a new offense. The main issue I see is that he was never that great to begin with, so a long-term (permanent?) period of even modest decline following the injury sets him back to an only slightly above league average level.

And you're paying him $34,187,085 two years from now.

[eric]

Luka Doncic

will probably average 15 pts 5 ast 5 reb per game.

This doesn't sound like much, but the only players to do it ten times in their careers were Oscar, Magic, Bird, Drexler, and LeBron. So that's pretty solid company.

The players to do it as rookies are more of a mixed bag. We start with Oscar Robertson, which was a surprise to me since he didn't debut until 1961. He also beat the margins pretty handily, averaging 30 9.7 and 10.1 per.

We have to wait all the way until 1976 for the next rookie, when Alvan Adams managed it in his Rookie of the Year campaign... but that was his only All Star appearance and he never even made an All-NBA Team, let alone the Hall.

Next up we get Magic "Ervin" Johnson and Michael "Air" Jordan in relatively quick succession. Those guys were pretty good.

Nine years after the GOAT we get Anfernee Hardaway, Grant Hill, and Steve Francis. Both Francis and Hill tied for the Rookie of the Year (not with each other), though even with Hill's HOF nod none of these careers are what Maverick diehards are hoping for.

We get back on track in 2004 with LeBron James, giving us three of the five all time greatest players, and Chris Paul's no slouch.

Recent history turns sharply back to the cautionary side, though, as we end the list with Tyreke Evans, Michael Carter-Williams, and Ben Simmons.

Of the twelve players to accomplish 15-5-5 before Doncic ten received at least part of an ROY reward (Magic came in second to Bird, Penny barely finished behind Webber) so it seems likely Luka will add that silverware to his trophy case. And a 33% shot at being an MVP player (plus an 8% chance of getting notoriously robbed, Chris Paul 2008 never forget) is real nice too.

But what struck me most of all is that even with his slump / defenses adjusting / return to true talent level, Doncic's 35% from three point land is the best in sample, narrowly topping Franchise's 34.5% and LeBron's 29%.

Wait, LeBron?!?

Yes, the three point shooting for these rookies is so gross that LeBron "In 2007 Pop Played Me Like Russell Westbrook" James is #3 in it.

The good news is that most players improved on their rookie 3P% numbers. The bad news is that one of three not to (although if Ben Simmons makes literally one three in his whole career he'll "improve") was in fact Steve Francis, so the only player to finish their career with a 35%+ level was Chris Paul. It's interesting to wonder if the skill sets of being a rebounder, shooter, and passer are mutually exclusive, or if the conglomeration of so many skills is simply prohibitively unlikely.

[TimPig]

/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fthe_trevor

[eric]

lol clutch

your move, royce young

[TimPig]

Dec 28, 2018 1:33:02 GMT eric said:

lol clutch

your move, royce young

“Clutch” stats threw me off. Assumed that just meant the basic stats?

[eric]

Read an article today insisting that Simmons having the jumper of Shaquille O'Neal actually wasn't hurting the offense because Joel Embiid shoots better playing with Simmons, per nba dot com. Which is true! Embiid's %s are higher.

But the point of spacing is not strictly that shots from the same spot get easier to make, but that they get easier to take in the first place: a player facing a triple team at the rim is (hopefully) going to pass out instead of attempting the same shot they would against single coverage. With that in mind, let's look at the shot chart.

Embiid takes fewer shots per game in the restricted area when Ben Simmons isn't in the game, but he also plays less minutes so when we correct to shots per 36 minutes we find 6.8 restricted area attempts with Ben Simmons compared to a whopping 9.6 without. This effect persists even when we correct the correction due to Embiid taking more shots overall without Simmons, as he takes 38% of his shots in the restricted area when Simmons is in the game compared to 41% when he isn't (and 57% to 62% for the paint entirely).

This also continues the trend from last year, where the percentages were 33% and 34% respectively, and 50% vs. 57% for the broader paint.

.

These are certainly small margins, but as it turns out they are arithmetically enough to outweigh the higher raw FG% - although Ben Simmons gets Joel Embiid better looks, they aren't better enough to provide a net gain over the looks lost.

[eric]

projections

1 61 Milwaukee Bucks
2 57 Toronto Raptors
3 56 Indiana Pacers
4 54 Boston Celtics
5 51 Philadelphia 76ers
6 41 Miami Heat
7 41 Charlotte Hornets
8 39 Brooklyn Nets
--- ---
9 35 Detroit Pistons
10 32 Orlando Magic 
11 31 Washington Wizards 
12 23 Atlanta Hawks 
13 21 New York Knicks 
14 19 Chicago Bulls 
15 16 Cleveland Cavaliers 


1 55 Denver Nuggets
2 54 Golden State Warriors
3 53 Oklahoma City Thunder
4 49 San Antonio Spurs
5 47 Los Angeles Clippers
6 47 Houston Rockets
7 46 Portland Trail Blazers
8 44 Los Angeles Lakers
--- ---
9 43 Utah Jazz
10 42 New Orleans Pelicans 
11 41 Minnesota Timberwolves
12 39 Dallas Mavericks 
13 39 Sacramento Kings
14 36 Memphis Grizzlies 
15 20 Phoenix Suns 

wanted to touch briefly on the Jimmy Butler effect - for all the angst, the Timberwolves went from 31 wins without him to 47 with him to (probably) 41 without him. even putting aside the 'made the playoffs' bar because it's mostly meaningless, they were substantially improved by adding him and substantially worsened by removing him.

top stats

2.90 Anthony Davis
2.58 Rudy Gobert
2.53 Paul George
2.45 James Harden
2.42 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.30 Kevin Durant
2.20 Nikola Jokic
2.06 Nikola Vucevic
2.04 Damian Lillard
1.93 Kyrie Irving

MVP ballot Giannis - Durant - Jokic - Kawhi? - Davis

'big deal!' you might be saying, 'doesn't AD have the best stats every year?'

no, as it turns out. not really. not even a little bit. not even at all.

this would be only his first year leading Win Shares - after LeBron's five straight from 2009 to 2013 (only surpassed by Jordan's seven straight) it went Durant Harden Curry Harden Harden. his taking over the top spot is also more due to others' declines than his elevation - the 14.6 he's on track for barely even exceeds his own personal record of 14.0 in 2015, and would rank only 138th(!!!) all time.

his 2nd place in Wins Produced would also be his best ever position, but while his 19.6 would far exceed his own PR (2018's 14.8) it would still not be that historically impressive, ranking only 18th over the past ten full seasons.

Real Plus Minus of course can't be compared to itself across seasons since the methodology keeps changing, but his #2 finish there would also be a career best rank.

overall it's a strong year for Davis and a weak year for the league statistically. i wouldn't be that surprised if the Pelicans make the playoffs, but i would be very surprised if they did so as any better than a 7 seed and so would be extraordinarily surprised if Davis got any serious MVP buzz.

.

it is remarkable as always that the Thunder have had under contract three of the top six players in the league: Durant, Harden, George

[eric]

Lonzo Ball is on track for at least 10 ppg and no more than 100 FTA this season. i wondered how common that was for starters, and 23 players have ever done it so 'not very'. not very common.

but it is becoming more common. the first player ever to manage it (since 1950) was Randy 'The Flipper' Wittman in 1988. notably, he is the only player of the 23 to not attempt a three pointer in the season in question.

through the 2012 season only seven more players accomplished the feat, but starting in 2013 the floodgates opened:
n year
2 2013
4 2014
2 2015
1 2016
2 2017
4 2018
These are for the most part spot up shooter types; your Kyle Korvers, your Danny Greens, your Klay Thompsons. The only exception is Thaddeus Young, who is also the only player to manage it twice and has a player profile of a rough and tumble scrounger, so it's really bizarre he doesn't get more free throws. Looks like the Paycers only bribe the refs when it comes to Oladipo.

Nowhere on the list is a point guard. Jose Calderon does appear once but in the year he played de facto shooting guard next to Monta Ellis in Dallas.

Also notably absent on the list are historically poor free throw shooters. Even Thad Young has a career mark of 67%.

Lonzo is shooting 41% from the line, and while the sample is small (that's the premise of this post after all) he also shot 45% last year, and the Gaussian error bar of ±9% while larger than most is still only enough to get him into the 50s.

We talk a lot about how Ben Simmons is a uniquely difficult fit, but Lonzo is blazing some new ground of his own.

[TimPig]

Is Lonzo’s FT% historically bad for a guard?

[eric]

Jan 12, 2019 17:47:26 GMT TimPig said:

Is Lonzo’s FT% historically bad for a guard?

in general guard is kind of vaguely defined, but as it happens there's only 13 players in NBA history to take at least a hundred free throws and make less than 45% (Lonzo's at 117 and 44%) and the rest are all clearly big men so yes. i would say literally the worst ever counts as 'historically bad'

with that said, Jerome Lane was a 6'6" power forward, and Lonzo's 6'6" and putting up seven rebounds per 36, and he wouldn't be the first point player we called a power forward

but for what it's worth, among players b-r considers guards with what b-r considers 100 FTA Lonzo is dead last in FT%. the remarkable thing is that like both players above him he was a much better shooter in college: he dropped from 67% to 44%, Mark "The Shark" Radford dropped from 74%(!) to 46%, and Andre Roberson dropped from 58% to 47%. it's pretty bizarre.

[eric]

Luka Doncic is currently hitting 60% of his shots at the rim, which for a 6'7" scorer is remarkably low - of the 82 players to attempt at least 160 shots at the rim this year he's 60th, ahead of predominantly little guys like Mike Conley and Kemba Walker and non-scorers like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Tristan Thompson. (League average overall is 65%.)

A rookie shooting so poorly isn't necessarily indicative. LeBron and Durant both shot the same 60% as rookies, peaked at 80%, and their career values sit at 73%. Rookie Giannis shot 57% and is up to 78% so far this year.

But there are plenty of other rookies who started that bad and just kept on being that bad, even similarly lauded ones. For example Tyreke Evans started at 59% and currently sits at 58% on his career.

[TimPig]

I get the feeling Luka is next on eric’s naughty list.

[eric]

DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins through four games is currently fouling opponents 7.3 times per 36 minutes. Coming into this season his career 4.3/36 trailed only John Drew and George "The Butcher" Mikan among 20 PPG scorers, so he's always been a high fouler, but even though seven is a lot he wouldn't be even close to the first NBA player to manage it over a full season: 39(!) players have managed it, led by Steve Johnson's three in a row to start his career. Foulest player ever goes to Nate Bowman, who over the course of 2171 NBA minutes played recorded 509 personal fouls, good for a cool 8.4(!!!) per 36...

...and he won a ring in 1970 with the Knicks, recording a preposterous 9.6 fouls per 36 in the playoffs while somehow managing to stay in a Finals game long enough to put up 18 points. #fundamentals

[eric]

projections

1 61 Milwaukee Bucks
2 57 Toronto Raptors
3 54 Indiana Pacers
4 53 Boston Celtics
5 52 Philadelphia 76ers
6 43 Brooklyn Nets
7 41 Miami Heat
8 41 Charlotte Hornets
--- ---
9 35 Detroit Pistons
10 34 Washington Wizards 
11 32 Orlando Magic 
12 26 Atlanta Hawks 
13 18 New York Knicks 
14 18 Chicago Bulls 
15 17 Cleveland Cavaliers 


1 59 Golden State Warriors
2 56 Denver Nuggets
3 53 Oklahoma City Thunder
4 49 Portland Trail Blazers
5 48 Utah Jazz
6 47 San Antonio Spurs
7 46 Houston Rockets
8 44 Los Angeles Clippers
--- ---
9 42 Los Angeles Lakers
10 40 Minnesota Timberwolves 
11 40 New Orleans Pelicans 
12 39 Sacramento Kings 
13 39 Dallas Mavericks 
14 32 Memphis Grizzlies 
15 18 Phoenix Suns 

leaders


2.76 Rudy Gobert
2.69 James Harden
2.58 Anthony Davis
2.56 Paul George
2.43 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.26 Nikola Jokic
2.22 Kevin Durant
2.01 Stephen Curry
2.01 Damian Lillard
1.98 Karl-Anthony Towns
1.98 Kyrie Irving
1.89 Nikola Vucevic

current mvp ballot: Giannis - Jokic - Durant - Kawhi - Gobert

Davis necessarily falls off due to not playing, but with how bad the Pelicans were and still are I still think he wouldn't have gotten any but pity votes. Jokic and Durant remain in a statistical tie and Kawhi remains waaaay back mostly due to his 32nd place showing in Real Plus Minus so far.

In November Ben Simmons was taking jumpers on a preposterously low 11% of his field goal attempts. He has now reduced it to 10%.

Speaking of Rookie of the Year candidates, wanted to revisit DeAndre Ayton real quick - currently averaging 16 points per game on 59% from the field and 77% from the line. If he can nudge that up to 60% he'd be the fifth player (not rookie, player) in NBA history to reach 16 / 60% / 75% joining Cedric Maxwell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Artis Gilmore, and Kevin McHale.

Not bad. Pretty good.

He doesn't take threes but shooting 38% on long twos in addition to the solid FT% suggests he can make that move relatively easily. I haven't watched any Suns game this year (obviously) so I can't speak to his defense, and given that as a team they're horrible he's probably not great, but being a generational offensive talent seems like a decent place to start.

[eric]

don't look now but Andrew Wiggins is showing signs of someday developing into a capable NBA player

after shooting a Westbrookian 31% from three his first two years he's shot a middling 34% since, and is all the way up to 5 attempts per game this year. 76th most threes attempted in the league doesn't sound like much but considering his rookie year placed 248th...

and his overall shot selection has improved, with only 46% of his shots taken beyond the rim and within the arc, down from a career value of 53%. granted the league average is 36%.

after recording more turnovers than assists his first four years (a feat only otherwise accomplished by Carmelo Anthony and Rudy Gay among wing players since the 1900s) he's up to a cool 1.2 assists to the turnover.

.

he'll never be a max player, and if he's one of your top two players you'll be lucky to make the playoffs. all i'm saying is that it's not inconceivable he can give a title team some decent fourth option minutes someday down the line (your Harrison Barnes type, if you will) and that's a lot more than i thought he could manage after year one.

[eric]

trade thoughts

Been over this in shout, just gonna briefly reiterate how much I dislike the Harris trade for the Sixers. Harris is the best player in the deal, but Harris - Scott - Marjanovic is a shooting downgrade from Chandler - Muscala - Shamet on a team that already has spacing issues, plus Harris should get minutes at PF to be fully effective which doesn't mesh with Simmons, plus Shamet is on a rookie deal for three more years where all three new players are expiring, plus it cost them two firsts.

Other than that it was great.

.

The Sixers also brought in Jonathon Simmons and James Ennis. Simmons had a great rookie year in San Antonio, shooting 38% from three and putting up a better than average .12 WS/48. In the two and a half years since those numbers are 30% and .04 respectively, which isn't great. He has gotten slightly better at passing, at least, but it's not a strength. Ennis is a typical 3 and D guy assuming he can play defense, and considering this is Ennis' eighth team in five years it seems like that's unlikely. They're both around 6'6" so Philly should have no problem fitting them in the lineup.


.

The Raptors traded a backup center and two backup wings for Marc Gasol, and also sent Greg Monroe out for nothing. Jonas has a player option for $18m next year, Marc has a player option for $26m, is a better floor spacer (Jonas has a higher career 3P% but has yet to take 100 for his career), has a much better defensive rep, but is 34. Presumably one of Gasol Siakam and Ibaka will be demoted to backup big and assuming whoever does buys into it it's an upgrade overall (for this year at least), the replacement wings look to be Norman Powell and Patrick McCaw which is a shooting downgrade, but with a healthy Kawhi only one and maybe none will get minutes anyway.

I don't know if this move gets the Raptors level with Milwaukee, but they definitely weren't before so it seems reasonable to me.

.

Speaking of the Bucks, they brought in Nikola Mirotic, which is a little odd since they already have Ersan Ilyasova filling the good (but not great) shooting never passing backup big man spot. Mirotic is a better rebounder, and you can never have too much shooting, but assuming Ilyasova is bumped down to take the D.J. Wilson / Thon Maker / John Henson pu pu platter minutes I don't think there's that much improvement here.

[eric]

The Pacers were on track for 56 wins when they lost ahebrewtoo MVP Victor Oladipo for the season. They are currently on track for 53 wins. What gives?

Oladipo isn't that good, for starters.

But a big factor is that Domanatas Sabonis is on track for 9 Win Shares off the bench, which seems like a lot and is. Games started have only been recorded since 1982, and in that span there have been only five previous players to generate that many without starting more than ten games:

1984 Kevin McHale (sixth man of the year)
1991 Detlef Schrempf (sixth man of the year)
1992 Detlef Schrempf (sixth man of the year)
2004 Antawn Jamison (sixth man of the year)
2012 James Harden (sixth man of the year) (and note that this is a raw 9, not prorated for being a lockout year)

Looks like Baby Sabo is a shoe-in for the award, right?

Except Montrezl Harrell is on track for 9.3 Win Shares off the bench for the similarly wildly overachieving Los Angeles Clippers.

[eric]

So I saw a tweet last night comparing Giannis and Ben Simmons as jump shooters - if Giannis can be an MVP with a crap FG% from range then how come Ben can't, hUUhhHhhHHH???

So obviously FG% is a stupid silly metric. Let's look at some recent players' career points per shot taken from 10' and beyond, based on the admittedly controversial stance that 3 ≠ 2.



So yeah, Giannis = Simmons doesn't really hold up. Let's also address the "umMMmmmMMM he's still a rookie!!!" argument. Outside of Shaq and Giannis every player on this graph eventually got better at jump shooting, where in this case we're defining got better as went from below-their-career-average years to above-their-career-average years. For example, through his first six years in the league, LeBron James generated .81 points per 10'+er and every year was below his career average of .87. Since then, he's generated .92 points per 10'+er and every year but one has been above his career average. Graphically:



So here's how everyone shakes out numerically, along with the year in their career they had their awakening:

year before after change name
4 .757 .846 9 westbrook
5 .836 .990 15 kidd
5 .890 1.049 16 durant
6 .777 .923 15 rubio
6 1.125 1.212 9 curry
7 .808 .924 12 lebron
12 .821 .936 11 parker
So it's relatively good news for Giannis, I'd say. He's in year six now and has so far only shown signs of getting slightly worse at 10'+ers since his rookie year, but even if it takes until year eight that wouldn't be that unusual. (Parker is a huge outlier. Typical metric system baloney if you ask me.) What's bad news for him and horrible news for Simmons is that whatever this phenomenon is appears to affect people as a flat adjustment rather than what I would guess intuitively; that the worst shooters have the most room to improve and therefore improve the most.



So bottom line the Simmons-Giannis comp is bunk, I can't find any case recently where a shooter as bad as Simmons was even around as a perimeter star, and even in the cases where shooters were below average but way way way above Simmons the improvement they tended to have was no better than players who were above average shooters in the first place...

...and Simmons went from .62 last year to .41 this year. Half this field decreased from year one to year two so that he's decreasing at all isn't the most alarming thing. The most alarming thing is that his .21 decrease would be bigger than the .20 decrease of literally every other decreasing player combined.

[eric]

I've been banging the "LeBron has been declining since 2013" drum for awhile so a recent stat from ESPN caught my eye:

"Hezonja joined a select group of defenders to block James on a go-ahead field goal attempt in the final five seconds of a game. It has only happened six times to James, with Hezonja being the latest after Tobias Harris in January, Mason Plumlee in April 2014, Jimmy Butler in March 2014, John Salmons in February 2013 and Samuel Dalembert in April 2008."

So I dug a little deeper, and per basketball-reference:

2004-2012: 1 block in 28 attempts (4%)
2013-present: 5 blocks in 23 attempts (22%)

Also, the only playoff block in such a situation happened in 2015 care of Nikola "The Berlin Wall" Mirotic.

.

Speaking of the playoffs, LeBron's efficiency on such super-clutch attempts is astonishing, generating a cool 1.08 points per attempt, only below his overall career mark of 1.08 due to rounding. This is especially remarkable considering in the regular season he puts up an atrocious .333



narrowly under the Tskitishvili line of .338.

[eric]

Russell Westbrook came into the year shooting 31.1% from three for his career. That's pretty bad, but on December 5th he went two for nine from three in a duel down to the wire against the [consults notes] Brooklyn Nets? to fall to 30.827%.

So what?

So that number bested Jerry Stackhouse's previous record low of 30.856% for players to attempt at least 2021 threes, and he hasn't gotten back above water since.

Here's the new list for worst 3P% of players by most attempts:

3P% 3PA Name
.000 31 Zaza Pachulia
.024 42 Anderson Varejao
.043 46 Gene Banks
.047 64 Otis Thorpe
.059 102 Darrell Walker
.132 152 Kelvin Ransey
.145 186 Avery Johnson
.172 464 Dennis Johnson
.217 888 Andre Miller
.252 945 Reggie Theus
.266 2020 Charles Barkley
.307 2921 Russell Westbrook
.309 3202 Jerry Stackhouse
.313 3383 Allen Iverson
.317 3570 Gary Payton
.320 3931 Vernon Maxwell
.320 4159 Baron Davis
.325 4264 Antoine Walker
.329 5546 Kobe Bryant
.347 6330 Jamal Crawford
.395 6486 Reggie Miller
.400 7429 Ray Allen
What makes Pachulia's 0fer so remarkable is he's not a terrible shooter - career 34% on 648 long twos attempted, career 75% from the line. That he's only tried 31 with that kind of skillset in the modern NBA is odd, and per basketball-reference only 15 of them were heaves.

Anyway, Westbrook has shown no signs of getting better (28% this year is his worst since year two) or taking fewer (5.4 per game the second most of his career) so he'll probably take Stackhouse and Iverson off this list next year, with an outside shot at Payton but almost certainly by the end of 2021 along with Vornbread. That'll be year 13 in Westbrook's career which as we've seen time and time again is when serious injuries start mounting so who knows, but one more year gets him Davis and 'Toine for sure, and then there's only #824 left of the gunners. What a time to be alive

[eric]

Spurs are fixing to sign Donatas Motiejunas. Yes! He still exists! I pulled up his basketball-reference page to refresh my memory and noticed that he has career marks right around 30% from three and 60% from the free throw line, which seems like it's hard to do; not that 30% from three is great, but 60% from the line is really bad.

I couldn't help but wonder, were there other players living it up from downtown that couldn't make it for free? For these kind of shooters, what was the real cost?

The three point line came to the NBA in 1980. Since then only five other players have made no more than 60% of their free throws and at least 30% of their threes (while attempting at least 200):

Greatest Wolverine of all time Mike McGee made a cool 35% of his threes and 59.7% of his free throws while leading the Los Angeles Lakers to two championships in 1982 and 1985. You think just anybody could have stumbled off the bench for ten total playoff minutes? Incredibly, Mike made 70% of his free throws in college and is still fifth all time in free throws made for the ol' Blue and Maize.

Ken "The Snake" Norman also went to a middling Midwest "University" and shot a reasonable 74% from the shorter college free throw line, but in the big leagues he cratered to 57% while managing a crisp 31% from three. Playing from 1988 to 1997 he made less money in his career ($21m) than Brook Lopez made last year ($23m).

Bruce "Also A Snake" Bowen is by far the best regarded of this group, combining a penchant for intentionally injuring opponents defense with a knack for the "corner" three. His career mark of 39% from three is by far the best of this group, yet much like the rest he only shot 58% from the line, and much like the rest he was dramatically better in college with a 70% career mark for the California State University Fullerton Fighting Titans. It's his fault Kawhi got Pachuliaed and left, not reading replies.

Finally we have two class of 2018 rookies, a fellow by the name of Lonzo Ball whose jump shot has probably been dissected enough (because it's dead) and a somewhat more intriguing player in OG Anunoby, whose position of "intriguing future Raptor wing" has been intriguingly usurped by Pascal Siakam's emergence. In year one Anunoby shot 37% from three and 63% from the line mostly as a starter. Mostly coming off the bench this year (though he's actually playing slightly more minutes per game) he's only managed 34% and 54%.

That three of the six career players are active is suggestive, but Donatas is at precisely 30.0% and 60.0% and so could easily fall off in either direction, while Anunoby could jump the FT% requirement by literally going 5 for his next 5, so we'll see.

We'll just see.

[eric]

I looked at Gordon Hayward before and his numbers have declined pretty dramatically post-injury.

But then I looked more carefully and his numbers this year actually track pretty well with his numbers pre-2017 (his only All-Star year):

63% at rim, 36% from three, .556 ts%, .115 ws/48 - first six years
69% at rim, 40% from three, .595 ts%, .199 ws/48 - all star year
64% at rim, 33% from three, .558 ts%, .116 ws/48 - this year

His passing/rebounding/defense numbers are consistent all the way through, the only real difference between MAX Gordon Hayward and post-injury Gordon Hayward is the scoring, and on that front post-injury Gordon Hayward and pre-MAX Gordon Hayward are almost identical. He is getting to the free throw line less (.28 now .39 before) but he's getting to the rim the same amount (.222 now .229 then) so one of those is probably a fluke, and given he's still finishing as well at the rim my guess is it's the former.

It's also not like Hayward had been gradually growing his whole career and that process continued to a natural peak in year seven - the year before his All-Star he shot only 62% at the rim and 35% from three. My feeling is that he's more of a Jae Crowder case, a player who came off the bench shooting 32.4% from three for four years, had a 40% year in Boston and convinced everyone he was an elite 3 and D player, then went right back to shooting 32.6% the last two years. (And for good measure his rim finishing went from 68% to 74% to 67% too.) Sometimes guys make the leap, sometimes it's just a fluke.

And sometimes that costs you $34m with a 15% trade kicker.

[eric]

Now that the season's over let's take a look around the league, starting with top stats (based on Win Shares, Wins Produced, and Real Plus Minus Wins):

2.73 James Harden
2.66 Rudy Gobert
2.59 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.42 Paul George
2.18 Nikola Jokic
2.17 Damian Lillard
2.07 Kevin Durant
1.97 Nikola Vucevic
1.94 Stephen Curry
1.88 Karl-Anthony Towns
Thus the MVP ballot goes Giannis - Jokic - Durant - Leonard - Harden. (Note that this analysis is based on raw totals not rate stats, so Leonard being ahead of Siakam at only 60 to 80 games played is pretty remarkable and warrants a closer look: they're even on Win Shares at 9.5 to 9.3, Leonard has a pronounced advantage in Wins Produced at 13 to 7, and the situation is reversed in Real Plus Minus where Leonard trails 7 to 12.)

Harden's stats are the best in the league but they are not historically great; there have been 72 player-seasons of fifteen or more Win Shares since the merger, we're not talking Michael Jordan dropping 21 in 1988 and justifiably getting MVP as a T-third seed.

.

The teams with the two best records are in the Eastern Conference. I don't know what more it will take to make people realize that the West just can't compete anymore and we have to change the playoff seeding and the draft and abolish conferences and won't someone PLEASE think of the children eight seeds?!?

.

If they make the Finals the Warriors will be the first team to make five straight since the Boston Celtics in 1961 (and 1962 and 1963 and 1964 and 1965 and 1966).

.

In Rookie of the Year news we had some not great shooting going on:

Luka Doncic finished at 32.7% from three and 71% from the line (only took 50 long twos)
Trae Young only managed 32.4%, though he did shoot 83% from the line (and also abjured the DeRozan range, taking only 79 all season)
Meanwhile Ben Simmons shot a crisp 21% outside of ten feet and made 0 threes. More like the Bendoza line amirite folks (the Mendoza line refers to a baseball player batting an average of .200). I don't want to be a naysayer but I don't think he's got a shot at Rookie of the Year this year.

"Aha!" you may cry, "but look at all the shots they took off the dribble!"

Remember before that algebraically we can go from

3p% = a3p / (a3pa + u3pa) + u3p / (a3pa + u3pa)
to

u3p%^2 / 3p% + u3p% * (.06 / 3p% - 1) - .06 * (1 - %a) = 0
because players shoot +6% better on assisted shots than unassisted, and then we just solve quadratically for unassisted and add 6% to see how each player stacks up with the pure catch and shoot types, giving us:

48% Joe Harris
46% Stephen Curry
41% Klay Thompson
40% Damian Lillard
38% Kevin Durant
38% LeBron James
36% Luka Doncic
36% Trae Young (remarkably they were both assisted on exactly 42.3% of their threes)
35% Andrew Wiggins
32% Russell Westbrook
00% Ben Simmons
So they're not in terrible shape, but they're not in great shape either, and as the Ws below them indicate it is not safe to assume every player (or even every young star player) will improve their shooting as they go.

.

.

Let's have some playoffs! :D

[eric]

Wilt Chamberlain's first year in the NBA was 1960 and Bill Russell's last year was 1969. From 1960 to 1968 the two men won...

18 of the 18 All-NBA Teams for centers (only two were awarded per year back then)
9 of the 9 championships
9 of the 9 best defenses
9 of the 9 rebounding titles (and 7 of the runner-ups, and both years they didn't go 1-2 they went 1-3)
8 of the 9 MVPs (Oscar 1964)

Messi and Ronaldo eat your hearts out.

[eric]

There has been a little surge in concerned Westbrook takes recently, which is a little hilarious after the gushing Thunder are contenders! Paul George for MVP! stuff we heard during the regular season, but I think what's not being considered enough is Westbrook's future - only the The Ringer article mentions at all that he's already in his eleventh(!) season, and even it refers to his athletic decline in the future tense.

What If Russell Westbrook Is Already In Decline?

Here are some facts that don't involve a dumb metric like field goal percentage in a dumb sample size like three playoff games:

Westbrook's free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) is the lowest of his career.
Westbrook's offensive rebound rate is the lowest of his career.
He's still getting to the rim at about his career average as a % of his attempts (.36 to .35), but
his percentage of field goal attempts that were dunks was the lowest of his career, and
his jump shot (while never a strength) has noticeably declined.
From year four to year ten he generated .86 points per shot outside ten feet.
This year he only managed .78.

And here's his WS/48.





The only thing keeping that curve from being a perfect rise and fall is year six, which was the year he missed half the season with knee surgeries.

The question isn't what happens when Westbrook starts to decline.

He already has.

This is what happens. Even with an All-NBA caliber running mate his team doesn't get 50 wins and does get bounced in the first round.

The question is how much further he will decline, whether he is capable of adapting his game to his reduced ability, and for how long good players will put up with him if he doesn't.

[TimPig]

TRIPLE. DOUBLES.

[eric]

Apr 23, 2019 17:23:43 GMT TimPig said:

TRIPLE. DOUBLES.

if he keeps this up he'll be lucky to hit triple digit thousandths of a win share per forty-eight minutes

[eric]

a couple more Westbrook graphs

here's his WS/48 against salary with projections going out to 2023:



and here's his WS generated per million $ in salary against the league average (which only goes up to present):



so long as the salary cap hits about $667m by 2023 he'll be in great shape