NBA 2019 Hot Reads (540 views)

[eric]

Even if they win their first round series, are the Warriors in TrOuBlE?!?

I looked at how the #1 seed in each conference performed in the first round going back to 2004 (when the first round became best of seven) and excluding 2012 (shortened regular season) versus whether they made the Finals.

Two of them lost, and neither the 2011 Spurs nor the 2007 Mavericks made the Finals. Small sample size but I strongly recommend against losing your first round series if you want to win the title.

Of the remaining twenty-six winners, seventeen won in five games or less, of whom seven went on to make the Finals, or 41%.

Of the nine to get pushed to six or seven games, three made the Finals, or 33%.

So it's definitely not a good sign, but it's probably not that bad a sign.

[eric]

back in the day we bandied about an Andrew Wiggins Is A Slightly Worse Rudy Gay comp here and there, and after checking in on the Spurs-'Gets game i was reminded Rudy was still in the league so let's see how their career per game stats currently stack up...

18 pts 6 reb 2 ast 1 stl 1 blk 2 tov, 46% 35% 80%, 17 PER on 25 USG
19 pts 4 reb 2 ast 1 stl 1 blk 2 tov, 44% 33% 74%, 15 PER on 25 USG

...so yeah. almost eerily yeah. of course wiggins is in the "prime" of his "career" so when if he gets to year 13 like rudy the gap will probably increase, but so far he's right on track to have more being-traded-mid-season-for-washed-up-foreign-point-guards (2013 Jose Calderon, 2014 Greivis Vasquez) than being-an-All-Stars (zero).

[skrouse]

Any hot takes on Pascal Siakam? Cuz I think he's been great this post season

[eric]

Apr 28, 2019 14:19:43 GMT skrouse said:

Any hot takes on Pascal Siakam? Cuz I think he's been great this post season

sometimes a player takes a leap, sometimes it's a fluke

when i watch siakam he can absolutely penetrate and he can finish not only at but near the rim, which is an extremely valuable secondary skill
he can pass a little, not nearly enough for a #1 guy but just about enough for a #2 guy. looks like a black hole live but can't argue with 3 per game
he shot 37% from three this year which makes him a legit offensive force, but he also shot 37% ± 7% and if he ends up back at 31% not so much

he has an understanding of space, on offense and defense. i really think this can't be taught and it's so important. i haven't watched him much but a player who has no idea what they're doing on defense you don't have to watch much to see it, so i'd say he's at worst an average defender. defense is really hard to measure, no red flags yet though. obviously the athleticism is unquestionable.

#mildtakes

[eric]

players with at least 1000 MP and .210 ws/48 in the playoffs

.255 michael jordan (7474 MP)
.254 george mikan (1500)
.244 lebron james (10049)
.221 kawhi leonard (3158)
their regular season numbers

.250 michael jordan (41011)
.249 george mikan (8350)
.235 lebron james (46235)
.219 kawhi leonard (14404)
greatness

[eric]

Why Are the Celtics a Failure?

"UmmMMMmmmMMmm they went to the Conference Finals 2 yrs n a row!!!!!1"

Let's review that track record, shall we?

2017 the Celtics have 53 wins but margin of victory suggests their true talent level is actually 48, a suggestion borne out by Boston struggling to get past a woeful Wizards squad (is there any other kind?) in seven games in the second round. Indeed, over the entire series they only outscore Washington by seven total points. (Not per game.) Then they get waxed by LeBron.

2018 the Celtics improve to 55 wins but Pythagoras is still bearish and puts them at 51. Again they ssssstruggle to get past a Bucks squad still starting scrubs from Tyler Zeller to John Henson to Eric Bledsoe, and the margin of victory is even tighter at four total points over the seven games. Then they handle the Sixers and get ONE GAME FROM THE FINALS OMG against a Cavs team running on the fumes of fumes of fumes - LeBron leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, threes, contests, huddles, rotations, tweets, likes, subscribes. Non-LeBrons shoot 30% from three and register a crisp 63 assists against 52 turnovers. Kevin Love shoots 38% from the field and 27% from three. Jeff Green starts. The Celtics score 79 points in game seven.

2019 the Celtics COLLAPSE!!!!!!! to 49 wins but actually their MOV is the highest of this three year span at 52 expected wins. Luck isn't a skill. Brad Stevens isn't a warlock. And more importantly, the Bucks are by far the best team the Celtics have come up against in this span.

And they lost.

How can getting better be a failure?

It can't.

The Celtics didn't fail us.

We failed them, by having unreasonable expectations.

.

(...I mean, I say "we", but some of us were bearish on them before the season, and when you mess with the bear you can barely bear it.)

[eric]

Players to score 35 or more points per game in the Conference Finals since 1971 (before which it was called the Division Finals):

1995 Hakeem Olajuwon 35 pts on 56 FG% 50 3P% 81 FT% = 1.18 pts/tsa, 13 reb 5 ast 4 blk (5 pf!), busted David Robinson down to junior midshipman fourth class

2005 Amar'e Stoudemire 37 pts on 55 FG% 84 FT% = 1.22 pts/tsa, 10 reb 1 ast, at the tender age of 22 put up 42 and 16 in the deciding game five... a loss to the great Tim Duncan's Spurs... microfracture surgery a few months later... RIP

2009 LeBron James 39 pts 49 FG% 30 3P% 74 FT% = 1.18 pts/tsa, 8 reb 8 ast... lost in six to the great Dwight Howard's Magic

We Should Be Talking More About Steph Curry

2019 37 pts 47 FG% 43 3P% 94 FT% = 1.33(!) pts/tsa, 8 reb(!!!) 7 ast

No player in NBA history has had a more efficient and more voluminous scoring Conference Finals. The most efficient of any 30 ppg scorer is... Steph Curry who in 2017 shot 56% from the field, 47% from three, and 89% from the line while posting 32 a game. The closest to matching him on both fronts is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar leading the Milwaukee Bucks on a Western(!?) Conference Finals rout of the Chicago Bulls(!?), recording 35 points per game on 66 FG% and 75 FT% and throwing in a cool 20 rebounds per game for good measure. (Hilariously he only took 12 free throws all series compared to 39 for Chet Walker.)

Yes we're all very impressed by Draymond and Klay, strength in numbers yadda yadda. The Warriors walked away with this series because Steph Curry had an historically great series. Here is a list of the players to make twenty five or more threes in a four game Conference Finals:

Steph Curry

Here is a list of the players to make twenty five or more threes in a Conference Finals going at most five games:

Steph Curry 2015
Steph Curry 2019

Here is a list of all players to make twenty five or more threes in a Conference Finals:

Steph Curry (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019)
everyone else in NBA history (1995, 1995, 2001, 2016, 2018)

We Should Be Talking More About Steph Curry

[eric]

the above stats c/o basketball-reference and python h/t @bk

[eric]

Players to shoot at least 90% on at least 40 FTAs in a given Finals:

1957 Bill Sharman Soft (96% of 49)
1961 Cliff Hagan (90% of 41)
1968 John Havlicek (90% of 51)
1991 Magic Johnson (95% of 41)
2000 Reggie Miller (98% of 46)
2004 Chauncey Billups (93% of 42)
2005 Chauncey Billups (91% of 44)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki (98% of 46)
2017 Kevin Durant (93% of 41)
2019 Kawhi Leonard (94% of 48)
2019 Steph Curry (93% of 45)

There's something to be said for the rough and tumble Wild West days of pro basketball, but I for one am enjoying the privilege of watching the ascension of good fundamentals and players playing the play the right way in the modern game.

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Jun 10, 2019 14:47:59 GMT eric said:

Players to shoot at least 90% on at least 40 FTAs in a given Finals:

1957 Bill Sharman Soft (96% of 49)
1961 Cliff Hagan (90% of 41)
1968 John Havlicek (90% of 51)
1991 Magic Johnson (95% of 41)
2000 Reggie Miller (98% of 46)
2004 Chauncey Billups (93% of 42)
2005 Chauncey Billups (91% of 44)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki (98% of 46)
2017 Kevin Durant (93% of 41)
2019 Kawhi Leonard (94% of 48)
2019 Steph Curry (93% of 45)

There's something to be said for the rough and tumble Wild West days of pro basketball, but I for one am enjoying the privilege of watching the ascension of good fundamentals and players playing the play the right way in the modern game.

Dirk

[eric]

The Toronto Raptors are the 19th NBA franchise to win a championship, and take the title of youngest franchise to do so (est. 1996) from the Miami Heat (est. 1989).

All of the oldest twelve franchises have at least one title: the Original Eight of the Celtics Lakers Warriors Pistons 76ers Knicks Kings and Hawks, and the first four expansions of Wizards Bulls Thunder and Rockets. Those teams account for 81% of the titles and all but the Kings have at least four Finals appearances.

The Raptors are the only champion of the youngest six franchises (Hornets, Pelicans, Raptors, Grizzlies, Magic, Timberwolves). Besides the Magic the other four of those youngest plus the Nuggets (1977) and Clippers (1971) are the only to never even make a Finals.

The Clippers haven't even made a Conference Finals