Post by jhb on Jun 6, 2018 14:20:15 GMT
1. Resignings/Stealbacks
a. What did you think of our first year with the steal-back system? Would you change anything about the way the system works moving forward?
Ian Boyd
There hasn't been too many stealbacks to form a solid opinion yet, but the obvious kink in the way it is currently setup is how it deals with MLE/LLEs. Odin says there are workarounds so that "Team B" in the stealback scenario won't lose their offseason MLE/LLEs but that's just more busy work.
Druce
Like anything new I think it'll have it's tweaks moving forward. Had Knox signed for less than the max I'd have considered using it. I think it's a nice tool to have moving forward, but for most guys that people are afraid of losing I think they'll just accept the re-sign.
Mike
I believe is alright, haven't put my mind on it but there's always a way to improve a good system.
Fason
I don’t really have too much of an opinion yet on the steal back system. It seemed to work out okay this past offseason outside of the confusion with Borat. Like Tim said in that thread, we were fortunate to have it happen with a player like Borat and not somebody with much more value.
Majic
Overall it doesn't seem like there was much worth discussing. I dont think overall it had a lasting affect and it seems we have a bit of work to do on ironing out the rules. The MLE/LLE issue and timeline of things, seems we can work to get that sorted out. Early on it doesn't look like this will have a big affect, but as we go along who knows what could happen. Seems like this might be alot of work without alot of payoff.
Eric
It was a little rocky, but now that we've got rules (kind of) settled I think it'll be fun going forwards. Luckily it didn't impact anyone who really mattered this offseason anyway.
JHB
The dispute between what the rules truly spelled out was a lot of fun #EmbraceDebate. I think there should be a tiered system for how we analyze what constitutes a "larger" deal. First qualifier should be first year money. Second qualifier should be AAV. Third qualifier should be years on the deal. I think that progression spells out a clear winner in every scenario.
b. Did Delap make the right move to steal Kostas away from Ank and then trade him to Ian for peanuts?
Ian Boyd
Yes, good trade, good GM.
Druce
I think this is an obvious yes, his return went from 0 to $3k pennies. Any time you can essentially get something for nothing you'd be dumb not to do it.
Mike
I'd keep Kostas in order to have good depth but dunno what Delap is planning to do. Certainly don't like peanuts.
Fason
To steal back a player just to sell them off for 3k dump bucks is pretty pointless, but I think part of the reason he stole back Kostas was because he was talking with Ank about a potential deal.
Majic
I have no real comment on this. Kostas isnt really that good, so getting some dump bucks for basically doing nothing is never a bad move.
Eric
Kostas is bad, so anything Delap could get for him is free money.
JHB
Play the guy in preseason and then look for offers (or look to see if he could fill your hole at the 4). MAXIMIZE YOUR RETURN, FOLKS. It really frustrates me when guys get unloaded before they can be showcased or before a GM posts a block or checks for alternatives. Kostas is a wing with a high block rate...so he's a 5.0 unicorn.
c. Did you have any unreported resignings you didn't accept? How do you feel about not being able to see all the resign offers in the league?
Ian Boyd
Mountain Dew offered a 6 year resign that started at 11.4 mil which I didn't accept, luckily I was able to get him back on day 4. I think being able to see resign offers would make the stealback system run smoother, but that's just like, my opinion man.
Druce
How do you feel about not being able to see all the resign offers in the league? Knox offered to re-sign for the max. I don't mind not being able to see all the resign offers, I think it makes FA more fun.
Mike
Think everything is alright as it is, wouldn't mind seeing all the ones who wanted to resign don't matter for how much.
Fason
At first, I was unsure of not being able to see the offered resignings, because I fear change. But now I really like it because it doesn’t give people free info on how a player may be valued in the software.
Majic
Yes, I personally had 2 resign offers, both being way too much. Both players ended up signing for smaller amounts. Not seeing the resigns will be a small change, but I am not sure it matters overall. I always felt like most resign offers during 4.0 were either huge overpays or sweet heart deals so it was hard to gather too much info from them.
Eric
I did not, but as a championship caliber team it was unlikely I would. It was a big change not seeing all the resigns for sure, but I like it so far.
JHB
Juan Keaney offered an absurd 5 year, 65+ million resign. The lack of info is frightening when attempting to make your bids considering the stealback system.
2. Draft
a. In your opinion, who had the best and worst draft picks of the lottery?
Ian Boyd
Didn't really pay much attention to the draft since I had no picks, but I never got what the fuss or hype is all about with Dirk, but the worst pick would probably be the Kandi pick. Best? idk I guess Paul Pierce.
Druce
Based on profiles I thought Larry Hughes was the worst pick. I liked Tim's pick of Jamison, and VC to fecta, but thats because I loved that 97 Carolina team.
Mike
Blazers, Dirk is the sure thing and Cavs, Mike Bobby is the last thing they needed.
Fason
I liked the picks made at 1.5 through 1.7 more than the first three picks of the draft.
Rashard Lewis could have gone as high as 1.2 because of his grades and age, Kn was really fortunate to have him fall to 1.5.
I think barring TC disaster, Al Harrington is going to be the best player from this class. He’s only 18 so he has a chance for two teenage dream TCs.
I was a big fan of Tim getting Antawn Jamison at 7, even if Jamison doesn’t shoot threes or block many shots like in 4.0, he can still have a lot of value as 25 and 9 forward in 5.0.
to Rafer Alston at 1.11 and Sarunas Jasikevicius at 1.13 who I think will be the two best PGs in the draft.Mike Bibby, who could still be good, had a rough TC. And my three favorite lotto picks went right after him.
I did not like the Michael Olowokandi pick at 1.10 just because I think there were still better players available with Alston and LaFrentz.
Majic
Honestly, with the way the draft picks are created, and how early rookies have performed its hard to make any over-arching statements on who won or lost. There were about 8 or so prospects that have the look of becoming potentially all-star level players. Big winners to me were the people that made moves in the lottery: Blazers, Bucks, Bullets and Mavs. Losers being the ones that fell: Nuggets, Heat Sonics. I will throw in the Kings as they willingly skipped their pick, which makes no sense to me.
Eric
Nobody knows anything about the draft until we play ball.
JHB
I'm going to thumb my nose at the pre-preseason results and stick with my hot takes from the Rookie TC that Pierce was a great pick and Dirk was a bad one.
b. In your opinion, who had the best and worst draft picks post-lottery?
Ian Boyd
Almost everyone's delta in the TC was like + / - 1 or 2 at best so I have no idea who is suppose to be good.
Druce
I liked being able to get Tractor Traylor so late, I think he could be a sleeper. Cory Carr at 19 I didn't like due to the C- defense and rebounding.
Mike
Well, Keon Clark looks like complete shit if you ask me but Brad Miller seems okay at that pick so Lakers both.
Fason
Cuttino Mobley at 1.16 looks like a great pick after his stellar TC.
No players chosen post lotto really stand out to me as bad picks so I’ll just say Keon Clark because the Lakers had just taken Michael Olowokandi seven picks earlier.
Majic
With the hindsight of having seen rookie TC, the Bibby pick is just brutal. Alot of good looking players picked after him, adn then to see him have that bad of a TC has to be a tough pill to swallow. EDITOR'S NOTE: The question says post-lottery, not post-TC. Good work, Majic.
Eric
Anyone who didn't make a pick is the worst. Make a pick you humps.
JHB
Best pick was clearly Cuttino Mobley. Worst pick was a tie between everything SPL did and everything BK didn't do because he was having a temper tantrum.
c. If you could take one player from this class for an expansion team with the intention of building around them, who would you take?
Ian Boyd
Vince, his scoring should take off now that he's broken the C+ outside threshold, as long as he doesn't have shit handles and maybe his defense develops a bit, he could be the best player in the draft.
Druce
This is hard to say without at least pre-season to go on, but I would probably take one of Dirk/Pierce/Shard.
Mike
Dirk.
Fason
I would take Harrington due to his age, grades, Odin’s fondness for the Family Guy joke and because I think he will eventually become one of the best forwards in the league.
Majic
Vince or Dirk, depending on the style of team you want to build. Vince has that really nice outside grade but the handles are concerning. Dirk has the high scoring grade but lower rebounding/defense. Both are going to need some attention in The Lab but both could be monster scorers.
Eric
Dirk. Lot of people really high on a lot of wings with C Outside Grade. Castles made of sand slips in the sea eventually.
JHB
The answer is Al Harrington but I'm going to be stubborn and continue to say Paul Pierce in the hopes of some TC love and a well-timed off-season camp option some time during his rookie deal that could help me pump the scoring volume.
d. Name one winner and one loser (GM's) coming out of the 2003 draft.
Ian Boyd
Majic jumped from 15 to 1, as long as Dirk is at least somewhat useful, he's the biggest winner. Biggest loser prolly spl?
Druce
The biggest loser seems to be whoever takes over the Cavs. For winner I'd say Tim with Sarunas' nice TC and Antawn
Mike
If Odin's hint is right, Delap's gonna be the winner of this. Cavs fucked up with Bibby, poor Shaun I hate Bibby so much.
Fason
Winner was a tie. Tim had two of my favorite picks in the draft and looks to have gotten two players to build around at 1.7 and 1.13.
Delap got what may be the best prospect in the draft at 1.6 to add to Reddish, Tillie and Neon. For a loser, I will say Fecta because he gave himself an A+ for his Vince Carter pick and then traded away his first-round pick in the 2004 draft. I think his expectations for Vince and his team are too high.
Majic
Winner I will say myself, if only for the luck of jumping up to #1. Having the ability to pick whoever I wanted to fit in with my core already makes things a very nice luxury. Loser I would have to say the Cavs. Biby looks bad and the fact he was taken at 4 is even worse.
Eric
Buster lost RIP in peace. Druce won because taking timeliness rewards into account he got six cracks at the Aaron Harrison lottery for a cool 2000 dump bucks.
JHB
Delap and Breaux tie IMO for the Harrington and Mobley picks. SPL's draft was brutally bad.
3. Free Agency
a. Who was the most surprising max player in your opinion?
Ian Boyd
Romeo, there has been better wings signed for 1 year mins during each of the last 3 seasons than Romeo (Bonga, Ball, Bones etc)
Druce
Langford or Knox, I didn't expect him to get a max.
Mike
Kevin Knox, didn't knew shit about him.
Fason
My first thought was Kevin Knox but then I looked at the list and saw Romeo Langford. I was expecting him to get a borderline MLE level deal. I feel like Duc could have still gotten him for 3 years – 6 mil per.
Majic
Romeo or Knox were the most surprising to me. I understand both as they are young players with solid grades and some room for growth. My problem with it is I just dont think there was a major market for either of them. I think you could have gotten both on a shorter term deal at the very least.
Eric
We all have some fun with Romeo Langford but Romeo Langford, woof. Comparing him to Benji they're both good efficiency guys, then Romeo has C shown Defense compared to Benji's B+, 0 points left compared to 10 and an offseason camp, only put up 23 pts/36 against Benji's 28 on similarly barren rosters, career figures are +1 rebound -1 turnover for Benji, and he's the only guy on the Supersonics whereas the Heat have Zion and Bones. It's not a killer for the Sonics or anything, Romeo could be the fourth best guy on a championship team, but I would have kept my powder dry or gone after sub max assets. Kevin Knox is in the same boat too.
JHB
Kevin Knox. I had no intention of maxing him. On Day 1, I think offered a 6 year, 4.925 mil, 10% deal (similar to Malik Newman but with an additional 2 years). My goal on Day 1 was just to retain Benji and try to add another controllable young wing and then I took a lotto shot on a max deal with Chiozza hoping he would sign before Benji and I could get the PG of the future and present. After Day 1 panned out, I removed all my bids except Chiozza and put all my eggs in that basket. Right before the FA bids deadline, I got a little anxious and thought that Dump might outbid me on his guy Chiozza, so I hit up Odin and added in the Knox max as a fall-back and because I thought he could be good enough with some growth to make the deal worth it. So that's the story of how Knox ended up a max guy in Atlanta.
b. Who got the best under-the-radar steal?
Ian Boyd
Heat landing Bones McKinney was a pretty good deal in day 4, his per 36 numbers indicate pretty elite bleals and his efficiency is also not too shabby. Nuggets signing Chiozza for less than a max was a good deal too but Chiozza was a bit more high profile.
Druce
I think the Nuggets getting Chiozza and Allen is nice. Not sure if thats under the radar or not, but they used their space well.
Mike
Benji Wilson, Heat.
Fason
I think most of the league now knows that Chris Chiozza is really good, so based off contracts, I’ll say Bones McKinney. I think he could have gotten more than a 4 year – 24.5 mil which he got from Yawn.
Majic
Troy Brown was a hot topic of discussion yesterday. Really good numbers as a backup so should be interesting to see if he continues that, or if he even gets starters minutes. I also really like what the Nuggets did this offseason. He used hs cap space and made some later day signings on guys that with a little help, could be really good. Luka has good volume and if he uses the +25 still free to help his efficiency, that could end up a great signing.
Eric
Already touched on him but Bones McKinney is a real good player, and for $6m a year he's a super steal for the yawntles. Doesn't do anything spectacular but he's good across the board, and SG eligible so worst case he's the best wing supersub in the league, AND he's got all +25 left. Honorable mentions to Wolves Bulbs Ehlers and Nuggets Paul Wight.
JHB
Troy Brown was my under-the-radar guy coming into FA. I didn't realize he was PG eligible or I may have maxed him in the same vein as my Chiozza strategy. Hats off to Breaux for the signing and to Ank for exploiting a noob.
c. Worst contract in FA?
Ian Boyd
The aforementioned Romeo Langford max.
Druce
I think Langford will end up being this.
Mike
Think Grayson is taking plenty of my money but w/e
Fason
Romeo Langford’s max looks rough. And on a lesser note the Anfernee Simons 3 year – 21.5 mil looks pretty bad after his TC.
Majic
Sexton - he will be trash by year 3 of that max (kidding).. but probably the Romeo max. Just dont see that turning out well and tying up that much cap for the next 6 years is not great.
Eric
Jarred Vanderbilt is a serviceable d/r big who got MLE money for 7 years. That would have been a wild overpay in 4.0, in 5.0 it's super gross.
JHB
I really don't like Romeo.
d. Name one winner and one loser from FA.
Ian Boyd
Winner: Nuggets. Loser: Sonics
Druce
Mike is the winner, the future Cavs gm is the loser.
Mike
There was no big moves tbh but I'd say I'm a winner, of course Dump lost. (WAAAAR)
Fason
Winners - The Hawks kept Benji Hammon and then possibly add their SG and SF of the future with Malik Newman and Kevin Knox. I forgot to mention Malik Newman’s 4 year – 22.8 mil deal in the under the radar signings, that’s a really nice deal.
The Heat had a great free agency, keeping Zion then stealing Benji Wilson and Bones McKinney.
The Nuggets stole Chris Chiozza for only a 4 year - 53.8 mil contract when most teams were offering a max or near max deals. Then I also liked the signings of Allen and Doncic, with some properly used upgrades those two could become good assets for Mike.
Losers - Pistons losing Chiozza was a tough loss, especially when Dump offered much more than what Chiozza signed for.
The Timberwolves FA could have been much worse but it also could have been much better with all the cap room Ian had. Ian missed out on the opportunity to add some younger talent around Sexton.
Majic
Winner - Nuggets
Loser - Sonic
Eric
Heat are the clear big winners imo. Zion is the tentpole, last year the best supporter was John Stockton apparently shooting with his eyes closed. Adding two solid wings would easily get them to 50 wins in the Worstern, unfortunately they have to play in the Beastlantic so I wouldn't even bank on getting to .500. Regardless they have a good core set and with a little finesse they could still have max room next year. Hon mention to Grizz for bringing back the best two way big in the league. EDITOR'S NOTE: CALL SOMEONE A LOSER, ERIC
JHB
Winner: Yawn for getting FVR (1.10 pts/tsa from the center position) on an MLE because my 1 year, 10 mil bid didn't get accepted (OR ENTERED, CONSPIRACY ALERT)
Loser: Dump, for not getting Chiozza back, and Pete, for not paying attention while vacationing
4. Trades
a. Name the most one-sided trade of the off-season and who got the best of who?
Ian Boyd
"Don't do it breaux, ank cannot be trusted"
Druce
If that Raptors-Jazz trade goes through I think breauxcaine got taken.
Mike
Think they're all win-win, they get what they look for.
Fason
The Hornets trading Austin Wiley, 1.24 and their 2004 first to the Bulls for Brad Daugherty. I’m not the biggest Brad Daugherty fan and expect Fecta’s first to be in the lottery this season.
Majic
Hot take: I dont really think we have had any lopsided trades quite yet. This was a topic the other day in shout but the number of trades is down in 5.0, and outside of the Neon trade theres been nothing major.
Eric
Blazers turning 10 bucks into 1000 timeliness reward bucks and a second round flyer. Gotta love the hustle. Some of the Bulls-Hornets trades are wonky but the spirit of the question seems to be trades where two parties are involved so I skipped them.
JHB
Brad Daugherty sucks and Hornets 2004 is a clear lotto pick. WUT R U DOIN, FECTA!?
b. What is one trade that should have happened that didn't?
Ian Boyd
Nothing comes to mind at all, Mike managed his 40 mil in cap space and unspent buyout perfectly.
Druce
I have no idea.
Mike
EDITOR'S NOTE: Mike repeated the question here instead of giving the answer. Good work, Mike.
Fason
I thought Trofie should have traded for Okobo from Taco. Trofie is looking for a PG to round out his team and Okobo looks like the best available PG on the trade market. I know yesterday Trofie was saying in shout that 3 firsts was too much, but it doesn’t seem too bad to me.
Majic
I really cant think of anything. Again, the lack of movement on the trade market means there is just less out there. I will say that I am surprised that more people are not utilizing 2nd round picks and looking to trade for them. Odin has continued to state he will have some 2nd round steals, so why more people arent trying to find them is surprising to me.
Eric
Every offer I made for a marquee big.
JHB
One of the many people with a young PG I have expressed interest in should trade him to me.
c. How do you feel about people trading for cap pre-FA with picks and is it worth it?
Ian Boyd
Its happened only in 1 instance and the Hawks landed one of the better young SF eligible forwards that's only 23 years old. It all depends on the situation imo. If its day 1 and you're gambling on landing a Reddish/Sexton/Gragg by throwing a max offer in with 15 other teams with cap space its probably not going to work out. On day 3 when almost no other teams have cap space and you're still eyeing a max guy? It's worth giving a shot.
Druce
I think jhb played it well with his trade after day 1 having a specific target in mind. His pick will probably be a late first so I think it's definitely worth it.
Mike
Everyone's got their plan, I like people taking risks.
Fason
I am fine with anything that adds more trades. It can be worth it if executed correctly, example being how JHB got Kevin Knox (could/should have gotten Chiozza). Wouldn’t be worth it if you’re only trying to clear cap to throw a max offer at a player with bird rights that everyone will be offering.
Majic
Its risky and not really worth it in my opinion. Picks carry so much more value because you never know when an injury or two, or a down year can lead to a lottery pick, potentially the #1 pick. I understand why people are doing it as early on its good to have space to throw money around. But missing out on a guy and not having a good team could lead to losing alot.
Eric
They're both lotto moves. I'm on record trusting FA a lot more than draft because while in both cases you don't know what player you're getting, in FA at least you have a good idea what the player is gonna do if you do.
JHB
I have done this twice now. Don't do this to take a lotto shot on Day 1. It's dumb and giving away assets without a guaranteed return. If you can do it later and have a pretty good shot at getting who you want...worth it. Essentially trading a 1st (or whatever comp you give to get the space) for a player you want.
5. Overall
a. Give me your top three "winners" of this offseason and why.
Ian Boyd
Winners: Blazers, Nuggets, Suns Reasons: jumped in lotto, landed a good FA, raped a noob
Druce
Yawn, Mike both had nice signings. Tim had nice picks.
Mike
I believe Boston did the homework and has just turned the boat into the right direction. No major changes.
Fason
Same winners I had with free agency (Hawks, Heat and Nuggets)
Majic
Nuggets - as I said earlier I like what Mike did. He used his cap space on some solid looking players, one of them having full upgrades left. They are moslty on 4 year deals so its not tying up his cap long term either.
Blazers - I liked my roster before, and getting the #1 pick only made things better. I got a top talent for a position of need and didnt have to sacrifice anything to get there.
Heat - underrated offseason for them. Brought back Zion and then snagged Benji from the Cavs. Also signed Bones who has solid numbers as a backup, could be a nice pickup if those hold on starter minutes.
Eric
The league won because Odin's computer didn't quite die. The Heat won because they improved the most for now and the future and still have flexibility. The Lakers won because they didn't go to the CompuGM graveyard.
JHB
Hawks retained Benji and picked up two potential starters on the wing. Yawn made some great moves for the Heatles with FVR, Bones, Zion, and Benji. He's a point guard away from contending. I like that Mike and Jeezy both made some moves to contend. Even if they don't end up panning out as hoped, this is a good learning experience and a sign we've got two good GM's for these franchises.
b. Give me your top three "losers" of this offseason and why.
Ian Boyd
Losers: Lakers, Sonics, Rockets: Lost a GM, signed a shit max, inactivity from vacationing owner.
Druce
Future Cavs gm, Bibby is a bust it appears, losing Benji. Ian if Sexton keeps regressing. Dump losing his pg
Mike
Dump, I got Chiozza yo. Cavs, Mike Bobby and just for personal taste...I wouldn't have traded Lemon if I was in Washington.
Fason
Cavs - CompuGM is getting loose in the pen.
Pistons – Chiozza is a big loss.
Sonics – Because of the Romeo contract and they dropped in the lotto
Majic
Cavs - tough when you get the #4 pick and they have an awful TC. Even worse when you lose a player of like Benji. Sonics - just dont like the Romeo contract, Hughes had a good TC but will he be able to score? Pistons - for losing Chiozza when he offered him more money. Detroit loses again
Eric
EDITOR'S NOTE: The league loses because once again Eric is too nice to call anyone else a loser.
JHB
SPL had a bad draft. Dump lost his point guard. Majic drafted a big with C+/C/C inside/def/reb grades.
