Post by eric on Apr 18, 2018 21:31:54 GMT
Since 1998 there have been 300 playoff rounds played to completion. Of those, one team has had an advantage in regular season wins in 279 and won 218, or 78%, and the more of an advantage they have, the stronger their chances are.
54% of rounds where a team had a regular season advantage of 1-4 wins were won by the apparently better team,
84% of rounds the advantage was 5-12 wins, and
94% when the advantage was 13+.
So I thought, why not look at coaches' records broken into having or not having such an advantage and see how they did? So I added up the playoff performances of the five active coaches with the most playoff games coaches, and here they are:
Stan Van Gundy
70% (7 of 10) with advantage,
29% (2 of 7) without
Like every coach in this sample, Jeff's brother is better than average when it comes to facing a nominally superior team. His is the worst of the five, though, and he's surprisingly below average when it comes to having the advantage, too.
.
Erik Spoelstra
92% (11 of 13) with,
43% (4 of 7) without
Spo gives you the highest %s on both sides of the advantage, although as his sample size is the second smallest we can take that with a grain of salt.
.
Rick Carlisle
64% (7 of 11) with,
30% (3 of 10) without
He sucks.
.
Doc Rivers
77% (10 of 13) with,
30% (3 of 10) without
Doc Rivers: Actually Not That Much of a Choke Job Artist!
.
Gregg Popovich
82% (31 of 38) with,
33% (3 of 9) without
#2 behind hockey enthusiast Spo in both categories, and the only one besides him to be above average in both.
.
.
As this exercise demonstrates, even extremely long tenured coaches don't came anywhere close to generating statistically significant differences in either direction. Pop enjoys an excellent career playoff winning percentage not because he has any special playoff magic to impart, but because his teams are simply better. Granted this egg could be laid by the chicken of especially good coaching in the regular season, but to borrow a 538 phrase we should think of good coaching as "priced in" - a playoff upset (i.e. a result that surprises because one team has less regular season wins) is probably not because one coach is especially good.
54% of rounds where a team had a regular season advantage of 1-4 wins were won by the apparently better team,
84% of rounds the advantage was 5-12 wins, and
94% when the advantage was 13+.
So I thought, why not look at coaches' records broken into having or not having such an advantage and see how they did? So I added up the playoff performances of the five active coaches with the most playoff games coaches, and here they are:
Stan Van Gundy
70% (7 of 10) with advantage,
29% (2 of 7) without
Like every coach in this sample, Jeff's brother is better than average when it comes to facing a nominally superior team. His is the worst of the five, though, and he's surprisingly below average when it comes to having the advantage, too.
.
Erik Spoelstra
92% (11 of 13) with,
43% (4 of 7) without
Spo gives you the highest %s on both sides of the advantage, although as his sample size is the second smallest we can take that with a grain of salt.
.
Rick Carlisle
64% (7 of 11) with,
30% (3 of 10) without
He sucks.
.
Doc Rivers
77% (10 of 13) with,
30% (3 of 10) without
Doc Rivers: Actually Not That Much of a Choke Job Artist!
.
Gregg Popovich
82% (31 of 38) with,
33% (3 of 9) without
#2 behind hockey enthusiast Spo in both categories, and the only one besides him to be above average in both.
.
.
As this exercise demonstrates, even extremely long tenured coaches don't came anywhere close to generating statistically significant differences in either direction. Pop enjoys an excellent career playoff winning percentage not because he has any special playoff magic to impart, but because his teams are simply better. Granted this egg could be laid by the chicken of especially good coaching in the regular season, but to borrow a 538 phrase we should think of good coaching as "priced in" - a playoff upset (i.e. a result that surprises because one team has less regular season wins) is probably not because one coach is especially good.
