2045 Rookie Ladder (399 views)

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

PreSeason - Initial Ladder

This class looked great on paper and did not disappoint at all in the PreSeason.  There are 11 (at least) ladder-worthy players... so I'm gonna mix it up just this once and include all 11 on the initial ranking.  It'll drop back to 8 for the subsequent updates... so you gotta fight, for your right, to party.  There is also not a big gap between any spots at all (with the biggest gap currently between 6/7), so expect a ton of movement going forward.

1. Swen Nater - Harlem Globetrotters

Uh... where did this come from?  Swen outplayed his former teammate and #2 pick Bill Walton by a considerable margin.  He outplayed everyone.  1st in scoring, rebounding, and PER... decent efficiency, low TOs.  This could be a small sample flash in the pan, and he needs to improve his FT%, but Swen announced himself with a bang.

2. Bill Walton - Vancouver Grizzlies

1st in blocks and stocks, great rebounding numbers, solid scoring numbers.

3. George Gervin - Dallas Mavericks

Averaging a block/36 along with 1.5 steals/36 ... Gervin's defensive numbers from the wing land him just ahead of the next 3 players.  3rd in P/TSA and 4th in scoring volume as well. TOs aren't great, but not awful either.

4. Truck Robinson - Chicago Bulls

Like Nater, I'm skeptical he can maintain this production... but he was fabulous in the PreSeason.  3rd in scoring volume and rebounding, very low TOs. Really needs points in defensive stats and FT%... so his ceiling may be limited without some shrewd GMing + TC luck.

5. Doug Collins - Chicago Stags

2nd in P/TSA, strong volume and 1st in steals, Collins announced himself as the next great Chicago wing.  Watch out, old man James. 

6. Bobby Jones - Dallas Mavericks

2nd in stocks, just .1 behind Walton and easily the best TO numbers (.7 per 36) of the class.  Doesn't shoot a lot, but that's just fine, he's efficient when he does.  As his rebounding improves he will look better and better.

7. David Thompson - Chicago Bulls

Not quite the volume you would like to see, but efficient with low TOs.

8. World B. Free - San Antonio Spurs

Great scoring, low TOs... would really like to see a bit more defense from him, though.  Rebounding will likely always be his Achilles heel.

9. Kermit Washington - Portland Trail Blazers

1st (tied with Nater) in rebounding, solid scoring/efficiency.  Needs to be a bit better defensively, but he's not completely a loss there.  FT% is indicative that that won't be a huge issue for him going forward, so points can be allocated elsewhere.

10. Darryl Dawkins - Vancouver Grizzlies

Very efficient and good volume... but rebounding and defense both need help.  Luckily he's very young and those grow well for bigs.  He's one that I expect to fare better on the Sophomore Ladder™ than this Ladder.

11. Dan Roundfield - Anaheim Amigos

Defensive maven like Jones, but not as careful with the ball, a little worse on the boards, and much less efficient.  But! Those stocks/bleals are a beautiful thing.

Honorable Mentions:

Points:

George Karl - Chicago Zephyrs

Gus Williams - Dallas Mavericks

Wings:

Phil Hankinson - Chicago Bulls

Joe Bryant - Charlotte Hornets

Campy Russell - Tri-Cities Blackhawks

Bigs:

None

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Day 40 Update

Cut-down to 8 was slightly easier this time, with only real deliberation between 9 players for the top spots. At the time I am writing this introductory sentence, I still haven't completely decided on which of those 9 isn't gonna make the list... so I'm just as excited as you are to see it. OK fine, it's Roundfield who gets left off because his sample size is sooooo much smaller than everyone else's.

1. Doug Collins - Charlotte Bobcats (previous: 5)
Elite P/TSA (1.23, 1st in the class), good volume, elite swiping of the ball (2.0/36, 2nd in the class). Collins was a major trade piece in the early season and currently lands on the top spot because of the aforementioned reasons coupled with very low TOs.



2. Bill Walton - Vancouver Grizzlies (previous: 2)
Good at everything, great at defense. All-around good ginger. Rebounding should improve naturally, to be elite elite he needs to up his scoring volume.



3. Swen Nater - Harlem Globetrotters (previous: 1)
Not quite the same stats we saw in PS, but still very very very good. Defensive numbers and scoring and P/TSA have all decreased, but rebounding looks even better (1st in the class).



4a. David Thompson - Chicago Zephyrs (previous: 7)
Slightly worse at everything compared to 4b except for TOs and by a narrow margin, P/TSA. The lower TO number lands him just ahead of Gervin for the moment.



4b. George Gervin - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 3)
TOs spiked heavily in Sims 1/2, but are coming down. If he can get down to around 2.0/36 he'll move back up, given how strong he is in other areas.



6. Bobby Jones - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 6)
Elite defender with miniscule TOs. FT% is doo-doo, which makes his P/TSA even more impressive.



7. World B. Free - San Antonio Spurs (previous: 8)
Fantastic P/TSA (2nd in the class, currently), but scoring is all he can do. His lack of defense and rebounding will keep him below the 3 star SGs ahead of him in this class.



8. Truck Robinson - Chicago Zephyrs (previous: 4)
1st in scoring volume and 2nd in rebounding, but no defense and a surprisingly low P/TSA. Given his PS production I'm holding out belief that he's a little more efficient than this and is worthy of a ladder spot.



Honorable Mentions:

Points:
Gus Williams - Pittsburgh Condors
Ricky Sobers - Washington Bullets
Wilbur Holland - Chicago Bulls
George Karl - Chicago Zephyrs

Wings:
Brian Winters - Denver Nuggets
Jamaal Wilkes - Chicago Bulls

Bigs:
Alvan Adams - Washington Bullets
Dan Roundfield - Anaheim Amigos
Kermit Washington - Portland Trail Blazers
George McGinnis - Anaheim Amigos
Jim Brewer - Maine RedClaws
Marvin Barnes - Virginia Squires

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Day 80 Update
Sooooooo much talent. If your guy isn't on the ladder, it is just because there aren't enough rungs. 14 players were seriously considered for spots. Deference is absolutely given to those who have more minutes, so the Amigos duo, who look great, are relegated to the HM category. They are clearly the two players most likely to make this ladder look wrong in the future if those numbers hold up over a bigger sample. The same holds true for Kermit Washington, who is just not quite playing enough... and he can't shoot a FT at all. Others just missing the cut are Maurice Lucas (lack of defensive production), World B. Free (lack of defensive production, low boards), and Truck Robinson (finally falling off, because of low P/TSA, despite great potential in volume for scoring/rebounding.) Collins continues to hang onto the top spot, largely because of his defensive acumen. Too bad he couldn't keep the Soviets from scoring to win the gold. There is basically no difference between the Top 4 at this point.

1. Doug Collins - Charlotte Bobcats (previous: 1)
2nd in P/TSA, 2nd in scoring, 1st in steals (though this has dropped since the last update), and 3rd lowest in TOs.



2. George Gervin - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 4)
1st in P/TSA, TOs continue dropping sim over sim. Still a stronger rebounder than the other elite SGs.



3. Bill Walton - Vancouver Grizzlies (previous: 2)
Defensive numbers are slipping a tad, and his FT% is still suspect enough to drop him a spot on this update. He's still an elite defender, though it's not clear if he, Jones, or Roundfield will be the best of this class when all is said and done.



4. David Thompson - Chicago Bulls (previous: 4)
3rd in P/TSA, 2nd lowest in TOs in the class (could this be a benefit of playing with LBJ and CP3? I honestly don't know how teammates usage might impact overall TO rate).



5. Swen Nater - Harlem Globetrotters (previous: 3)
Still a slight decline from the previous update, but still a very efficient scorer and 2nd in rebounding. Defensive stats aren't great, but they have ticked up touch from the last update.



6. Bobby Jones - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 6)
Same old song with him, elite stocks and very efficient, ultra-elite at lowest TOs in the class by a full .5 per 36.



7. Jamaal Wilkes - Chicago Zephyrs (previous: HM)
One Zephyr floats away and another floats in. Wilkes' scoring is looking very very nice (4th in P/TSA, high volume)... the rest is OK, but not elite. He takes care of the ball, which is a big bonus.



8. Marvin Barnes - Virginia Squires (previous: HM)
Narrowly edging out Kermit Washington and Truck Robinson, Marvin's strong defensive numbers and decent FT% get him the last spot.



Honorable Mentions:

Points:
Gus Williams - Pittsburgh Condors
Frank Oleynick - Grand Rapids Drive

Wings:
World B. Free - San Antonio Spurs
Brian Winters - Denver Nuggets
Phil Smith - Miami Heat

Bigs:
Truck Robinson - Chicago Zephyrs
Alvan Adams - Washington Bullets
Dan Roundfield - Anaheim Amigos
Kermit Washington - Portland Trail Blazers
George McGinnis - Anaheim Amigos
Maurice Lucas - San Antonio Spurs
Jim Brewer - Maine RedClaws

[killybing]

👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑

maybe it would be interesting to include potential when you decide where to rank them. assuming youre not just ranking "BEST ROOKIE YEARS" and trying to project future stars. Now that eric release ACTUAL potential for every player during the draft, I feel like when you have a hard decision to make, going with the player with higher potential makes sense

[eric]

while i do set the shown to actual potential and this cuts the most dramatic potential uncertainty away, i would say there is still dramatic potential uncertainty involved (due to there being a TC in between what i post and what we see now) plus there is always dramatic uncertainty of what TC does with a given potential, so i don't think it would be that productive

with that said, i DO think taking into account which attributes are likely to grow in general is productive, but i feel like delap does that already

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Day 120 - Final Update

As should be clear, this is easily the most competitive ladder we've had so far. There is a balance between production and potential in the rankings, per usual. Over the year the most efficient scorers all slipped a bit, but there are still an astonishing number of a players with 1.10 p/tsa or higher... and about twice as many with 1.0 or better. Like with the last update, close decisions in the ladder are brokered by playing time (larger sample is more accurate) and perceived growth in the future. Congrats to Druce for the winning player... wee2dee please move 1000 units from my account to his.

1. Bill Walton - Vancouver Grizzlies (previous: 3)
Elite defender (should be in contention with Roundfield/Jones for future DPOTY honors from this class), 3rd in boards, low TOs, and his efficiency improved each and every update over the course of the year.



2. Doug Collins - Charlotte Bobcats (previous: 1)
2nd in scoring, 2nd in p/tsa, 2nd in steals... low TOs. Lots to love here. Not great on the boards, but not awful either.



3. George Gervin - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 2)
1st in p/tsa, decent volume, good rebounder for a guard. Needs to continue getting better handling the rock.



4. David Thompson - Chicago Bulls (previous: 4)
Almost lost a spot or 3 here, but barely hanging on because of his high p/tsa (5th) and low low TOs (2nd best) and positional scarcity. Would love to see him do a bit more scoring or stealing.



5. Swen Nater - Harlem Globetrotters (previous: 5)
Elite rebounder, solid scorer... but really disappointing on defense. Is his fate to improve defensively or is he the next Dragan Tarlac?



6. Bobby Jones - Dallas Mavericks (previous: 6)
Elite defender and lowest TOs in the class. Very efficient, but scoring is not his game. Rebounding should grow naturally so that should take care of his biggest flaw.



7. Jamaal Wilkes - Chicago Bulls (previous: 7)
Elite wing scorer, even in the shadow of LBJ and CP3. TOs are low, but nothing else is elite. Will need to rely on his one elite skill (scoring) to make his way through the league. Rebounding is great, assuming a lot of his minutes came at SG. Not bad from SF though.



8. Truck Robinson - Chicago Zephyrs (previous: HM)
Back on the list because of his elite elite scoring, Truck needs to be a much better defender in the future. However, he has been the most electric of scorers in the class and could be a mid 30s scorer very soon.



Honorable Mentions (in order within positional grouping):

Points:
Gus Williams - Pittsburgh Condors
George Karl - Chicago Zephyrs

Wings:
World B. Free - San Antonio Spurs
Brian Winters - Denver Nuggets
Phil Smith - Miami Heat

Bigs:
Dan Roundfield - Anaheim Amigos
Alvan Adams - Washington Bullets
Kermit Washington - Portland Trail Blazers
Marvin Barnes - Virginia Squires
George McGinnis - Anaheim Amigos
Maurice Lucas - San Antonio Spurs

[Muzunga]

How is Wilkes not higher ?

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Oct 8, 2020 0:24:41 GMT Muzunga said:

How is Wilkes not higher ?

Make the case for who he should be over.

[skrouse]

37,584 bucks

Enjoyed it as always

[troybarnes]

Oct 8, 2020 2:22:25 GMT skrouse said:

37,584 bucks

Enjoyed it as always

[Druce]

Oct 8, 2020 2:22:25 GMT skrouse said:

37,584 bucks

Enjoyed it as always