2001 Preseason Predictions by Win Shares (112 views)

[eric]

As discussed in shout, I decided to try out a preseason predictions model. Here's the result:

Eastern Conference
58 Harlem Globetrotters
53 New York Knicks
49 Orlando Magic
46 Detroit Pistons
44 Washington Wizards
43 Indiana Pacers
42 Atlanta Hawks
38 Cleveland Cavaliers
--- ---
38 Chicago Bulls
35 Boston Celtics
34 Milwaukee Bucks
30 Washington Bullets
28 Miami Heat
27 Charlotte Hornets
26 Toronto Raptors

Western Conference
68 Los Angeles Clippers
59 Houston Rockets
54 Vancouver Grizzlies
53 Minnesota Timberwolves
47 San Antonio Spurs
44 Utah Jazz
42 Seattle SuperSonics
39 Portland Trailblazers
--- ---
38 Sacramento Kings
37 Los Angeles Lakers
36 Denver Nuggets
35 Dallas Mavericks
31 Phoenix Suns
28 Golden State Warriors
And here's how it works.

1. Pull every team's roster. This necessarily only has data as of the commish's last upload, so some players might be in the wrong spots. These are probably not great players so I'm not worried about it.

2. Pull each player's career WS/48 and adjust with an aging factor. The age curves I found from 4.0 look like this...



...where each line is a different subset of players: all, only .05+ career WS/48, only .10+ career WS/48. As you can see it's pretty much the same, so I just did an average. If a player does not have a career WS/48, pull their PER from the most recent preseason and scale that to WS/48 - no aging factor since players don't get older between preseason and regular. If they don't have one of those either, set them at an estimate of replacement value of .05 WS/48.

3. Set up faux DCs for each team: rank all C/PF by projected WS/48 and give the best two 34 mpg and the third 28, rank all SF/SG and give the best two 36 mpg and the third 24, and rank all PG and give the best one 36 mpg and the second best 12.

4. Multiply out their WS/48 by MP and sum across the team, then set the league total to 1189 wins and scale accordingly. I post them as overall ranks within the conference, so if there was a really bad division whose "winner" would get the #2 seed they don't deserve, that's not reflected here.

In the future I'll just post these in the League Discussion forum, because it'll take a lot less work for succeeding years.

If you're a real glutton for punishment here are the predicted DCs:

SPOILER: Click to show

Atlanta Hawks
Scoonie Saperstein / Kobe Maggette
Faye Vincent Reagan / Kobe Maggette
Isaac Bonga / Saleh Winabi
Juan Keaney / Saleh Winabi
Benji Hammon / Omar Little
Boston Celtics
Anfernee McLemore / Bonzie Colson
Scotty Poodles / Bonzie Colson
Krombopulos Michael / Shu Shuvington
Sekou Doumbouya / Shu Shuvington
Sim Boyd / Bob Davies
Charlotte Hornets
Brad Sellers / Kenny Wooten
Shareef O'Neal / Kenny Wooten
Jared Terrell / Zhaire Smith
RJ Barrett / Zhaire Smith
Trevon Duval / Andy Phillip
Chicago Bulls
Brad Daugherty / Mohamed Bamba
Darius Bazley / Mohamed Bamba
Romeo Langford / Juwan Morgan
Jim Halpert / Juwan Morgan
Devon Hall / Austin Luke
Cleveland Cavaliers
Salado Valarado / Arvydas Sabonis
Isidoro Meyers / Arvydas Sabonis
Mikal Bridges / Reuben Lautenschlager
Benji Wilson / Reuben Lautenschlager
Johnny Dawkins / Dwayne Washington
Dallas Mavericks
Bol Bol / Spooky Skeleton
Christ Koumadje / Spooky Skeleton
Cameron Reddish / Terance Mann
Dan Cortezzee / Terance Mann
Markell Johnson / Teodor Ethan
Denver Nuggets
Dwight McGhee / Jaren Jackson Jr
Michael Porter Jr / Jaren Jackson Jr
Buck Johnson / Garrison Brooks
Keenan Evans / Garrison Brooks
Rob Gray / Brian Beard Jr
Detroit Pistons
Black Bush / Ed Mikan
Mark Alarie / Ed Mikan
Jackie Moon / Yirmiyaho Iair
Luke Maye / Yirmiyaho Iair
Shamorie Ponds / Chris Chiozza
Golden State Warriors
Kevin Duckworth / Kenny Gattison
Robert Williams / Kenny Gattison
Khyri Thomas / Jeff Roberson
Gary Clark / Jeff Roberson
Mark Price / Elle Okobo
Harlem Globetrotters
Dolph Schayes / Tryggvi Hlinason
Jock Landale / Tryggvi Hlinason
Elvis Delle Donne / Lavar Ball
Eligin Baylor / Lavar Ball
Jordan McLaughlin / Aljami Durham
Houston Rockets
Harry Gallatin / Guy Beahm
Desean Murray / Guy Beahm
Jesus Shuttlesworth / Egor Koulechov
Jim Pollard / Egor Koulechov
Brain Winter / Devonte Green
Indiana Pacers
Donta Hall / Keita Bates-Diop
Jan Michael Vincent / Keita Bates-Diop
Daniel Taurasi / O'Shae Brissett
Killian Tillie / O'Shae Brissett
John Stockston / #N/A
Los Angeles Clippers
Jon Pierce / Kevin Nash
Paul Young Thomas / Kevin Nash
Jake Shuttlesworth / Rui Hachimura
Clarence Withers / Rui Hachimura
Bobby McDermott / Emmett Naar
Los Angeles Lakers
Laurence Jackson / George Kok
Paul Wight / George Kok
Trendon Watford / Kenny Walker
Len Bias / Kenny Walker
Michael Jackson / Ian Miller
Miami Heat
Zion Williamson / Moritz Wagner
Yante Maten / Moritz Wagner
Damien Mama / Cedric Henderson*
Isaiah Wilkins / Cedric Henderson*
Prince Rogers Nelson / Cassius Winston
Milwaukee Bucks
DeAndre Ayton / William Bedford
Tacko Fall / William Bedford
Ron Harper / Shavon Shields
Jimmy Graham / Shavon Shields
Devin Lonc / Tony Pierce
Minnesota Timberwolves
Leonard Leslie / Mountain Dew Camacho
DJ Rony / Mountain Dew Camacho
Athansios Cathasach / Timo Cruz
Jimmy Chitwood / Timo Cruz
Collin Sexton / Ed Monix
New York Knicks
Firsto Picko / Hoot Gibson
Stan Haynes / Hoot Gibson
Quinndary Weatherspoon / Sandor Clegane
Billy Hoyle / Sandor Clegane
Quincy McCall / Nate Mason
Orlando Magic
Brandon Griner / Nicolo Melli
Cameron Parker / Nicolo Melli
Nick King / Whitey Von Nieda
Gerald Martin Johanssen / Whitey Von Nieda
Matt Farrell / Darrell Floyd
Phoenix Suns
Marvin Bagley III / Christopher Robin
Alex Reese / Christopher Robin
Bones McKinney / Kelan Martin
John Petty / Kelan Martin
Max Zaslofsky / Ayo Dosunmu
Portland Trailblazers
Giuseppe Longfellow / Roy Tarpley
Jake Pelkington / Roy Tarpley
Malcolm Moore / Jason Lyle
Tevin Mack / Jason Lyle
Roy Devyn White / RJ Cole
Sacramento Kings
Peyton Gragg / Sagaba Konate
Theodosios Cathasach / Sagaba Konate
Carl Braun / Michael Snaer
Juwanna Mann / Michael Snaer
Jalen Brunson / Neetnum Nagdorus
San Antonio Spurs
Neon Boudeaux / Clifford Smith
Junior Battle / Clifford Smith
Nick Diaz / Kenny George
Bill Murray / Kenny George
Gam-Zish Tibernes / Red Holzman
Seattle SuperSonics
Chris Silva / Leroy Edwards
Sum Ting Wong / Leroy Edwards
Ricky Roe / Dean Wade
Tank Selvy / Dean Wade
Sean Bird / Scoonie Murray
TEAM
#N/A / #N/A
#N/A / #N/A
#N/A / #N/A
#N/A / #N/A
#N/A / #N/A
Toronto Raptors
Nick Richards / Dennis Rodman
John Egbunu / Dennis Rodman
Miles Bridges / Tony Carr
Tra Holder / Tony Carr
Jon Elmore / Sim Dump
Utah Jazz
Corey Woods / Johnathan Williams
Tai Wynward / Johnathan Williams
Gary Bossert / Dale Earnheart
Chuck Person / Dale Earnheart
Jalek Felton / Devonte Graham
Vancouver Grizzlies
Stephon Templeton / Kevin Knox
George Mikan / Kevin Knox
Tyler Blevins / Kevin Hervey
Malik Newman / Kevin Hervey
Barry Obama / Ulaakees Galmuseeth
Washington Bullets
Simisola Shittu / Bennie Boatwright
Cracker McCallahan / Bennie Boatwright
LiAngelo Ball / Anfernee Simons
Jeff Hornacek* / Anfernee Simons
Trae Young / Joseph Chartouny
Washington Wizards
Chimezie Metu / Joe Fulks
Goga Bitadze / Joe Fulks
Butch McRae / Shannon Swoopes
Kenrich Williams / Shannon Swoopes
Rowdy Eavenson / Darrian Ringo

[eric]

Updated with proper division recognition. Why?

So I could do preseason fractional titles.

Eastern Conference
58 Harlem Globetrotters
46 Detroit Pistons
53 New York Knicks
49 Orlando Magic
44 Washington Wizards
43 Indiana Pacers
42 Atlanta Hawks
38 Cleveland Cavaliers
--- ---
38 Chicago Bulls
35 Boston Celtics
34 Milwaukee Bucks
30 Washington Bullets
28 Miami Heat
27 Charlotte Hornets
26 Toronto Raptors

Western Conference
68 Los Angeles Clippers
59 Houston Rockets
54 Vancouver Grizzlies
53 Minnesota Timberwolves
47 San Antonio Spurs
44 Utah Jazz
42 Seattle SuperSonics
39 Portland Trailblazers
--- ---
38 Sacramento Kings
37 Los Angeles Lakers
36 Denver Nuggets
35 Dallas Mavericks
31 Phoenix Suns
28 Golden State Warriors

.

Title Odds
.1740 Harlem Globetrotters
.0092 Detroit Pistons
.0562 New York Knicks
.0146 Orlando Magic
.0033 Washington Wizards
.0021 Indiana Pacers
.0019 Atlanta Hawks
.0002 Cleveland Cavaliers

.5486 Los Angeles Clippers
.1302 Houston Rockets
.0338 Vancouver Grizzlies
.0211 Minnesota Timberwolves
.0029 San Antonio Spurs
.0012 Utah Jazz
.0004 Seattle SuperSonics
.0001 Portland Trailblazers


For folks who weren't around the last time, here's how this works.

1. I take every playoff seeding as it is predicted.

2. To see how often a given team would beat another in a series, first we have to see how often a given team would beat another in a game, and to see how often that happens we have to see how often a given team will win in general. We're simply using predicted team Win Shares / 82 for a winning percentage, so our Clippers get 68 / 82 = 83%.

3. If two teams have the same winning percentage that's easy, it should be a 50/50 shot. If a team is 70% on average, it should win 70% of the time against an average opponent (i.e. 50%). But what if an 71% team plays a 46% team? What then, smart guy? In our software I have determined the following empirical formula for team A's chances of beating team B:

28.5/58 + team A winning % - (28 + team A winning %) * team B winning % / 29

With a maximum of 1 and a minimum of 0. Note that this doesn't solve to exactly 50% for two teams with equal winning percentages, but it gets very close and lets us know that our 71% team (the Globetrotters) will beat a 46% Cavaliers team 74% of the time.

.

It's important to take a small break here and point out that this formalism does not take into account injuries, DC changes, etc. in the playoffs or regular seasons. There is no way of predicting this anyway with so much information barricaded behind your disgusting human brainpans, but I did want to point it out.

.

4. Back to the math! Every playoff series is a best of seven, which is very convenient. While it is enormously more complicated to determine exactly how long a series would go, we don't have to do that if we just want to know who wins the series. We can employ the binomial distribution to see the chances of a team winning zero, one, two, or three games in a seven game set (that is, losing the series) given the chance of winning any given game which we will call "w"...

w^0 * (1-w)^7 * 7! / (0! * 7!) = 0 games won chance
w^1 * (1-w)^6 * 7! / (1! * 6!) = 1 game won chance
w^2 * (1-w)^5 * 7! / (2! * 5!) = 2 games won chance
w^3 * (1-w)^4 * 7! / (3! * 4!) = 3 games won chance

Summing those and collecting like terms we are left with...

(1 + 4w + 10w^2 + 20w^3) * (1-w)^4

And in our Harlem-Cleveland case, we see the Globetrotters have a 92% chance of winning their first round series.

5. Now that we know how often a team wins any given series, we just need to multiply everything out. I will continue illustrating with the Trotters of the Globe: after beating the Cavs they have a 61% chance of facing the Magic (whom they would beat in a series 73% of the time) and therefore a 39% chance of facing the Wizards (winning 82% of those series). Therefore Harlem's chances of winning a second round series are 92% * (61% * 73% + 39% * 82%) = 71%. We repeat this with four possible opponents in the Conference Finals, and eight possible opponents in the Finals to arrive at an overall chance of winning the title of 17%.

6. Now, because our chance of winning a game formula is empirical it turns out that the percentages don't quite add up to 100% at the end. I have therefore added a correction by simply scaling all championship chances proportional to the missing amount. For reasons that aren't clear to me and that would take far more effort than I care to expend, this turns out to be the same result as if we corrected every round to 100% along the way. To give a sense of scale, this correction changes the Globetrotters from 16.9% to 17.4%. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you.

[TimPig]

Hypothetically if a team sat Romeo Langford for preseason and he was a good (great? elite?) player, then these rankings wouldn’t be an adequate representation of how good they actually are, would they?

Hypothetically.

[eric]

Apr 17, 2018 0:32:21 GMT TimPig said:

Hypothetically if a team sat Romeo Langford for preseason and he was a good (great? elite?) player, then these rankings wouldn’t be an adequate representation of how good they actually are, would they?

Hypothetically.

The predictions aren't based off preseason standings or record. The only time preseason comes into it is if a player has never played in the regular season, in which case I use their PER to guesstimate their WS/48.

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Wow. Numbers hurt, robot. They hurt.

[👨🏼‍⚕️delapandemic🚑]

Knicks 02 on the board.