Post by TimPig on Sept 4, 2020 19:31:37 GMT
Don't get too hung up on the tiers and the money associated with each. There are a lot of ways to look at them but we basically picked our top five as tier 1, the next five as tier 2, and the five after that as tier 3.
Tier 1: 5 Most Likely to Receive MAX Offers
Delap’s five: There is a lot of top-end talent in our first foray into Rookie FA, but these are the players I see most worthy of a flyer on a MAX. I think almost all of the profile players are worth more than the MIN deals we’ll see cluttering Day 5 bids, but most of them really fall into the next category. These 5 stand out because they have ++ skills in certain areas and don’t have big red flags.
1. Anthony Edwards (current player comp: Mitch Richmond)
2. Zeke Nnaji (current player comp: Theo Ratliff)
3. Obi Toppin (current player comp: Montrezl Harrell)
4. Cole Anthony (current player comp: Dennis Johnson)
5. LaMelo Ball (current player comp: Jamal Murray)
Delap’s breakdown: Edwards looks like an elite scoring guard, especially in an inside system. He may have some slight TO issues, but with what will likely be high starting grades in Inside and Strength, he should have plenty of points to pump into Handling. I would expect him to have B/B scoring grades from the jump, if not a smidge higher. Nnaji, who may or may not be a stand-in for James Wiseman, is a fast, springy defensive-minded center with high upside. Looks to be one of the highest potential players in the class (A). If his FT shooting is north of 70% he will be a real franchise centerpiece. He doesn’t appear to have any real downsides. Toppin should be an instant impact inside scorer who should be more well-developed than the rest of the class at the start. However, his lower end potential and lack of shot-blocking may hard-cap his ceiling. However, like Edwards, if his Inside and Strength are near cap (which I would project, as he’s likely a B+ or A- Inside player), a cool +30 into Shot Blocking could be career-changing for him. Cole Anthony as a lead scoring guard and ++ rebounder seems like a pretty predictable outcome. The only thing that might sabotage him is turnovers… but I would expect his Passing to be very low as well, so poor Handling may not matter. His Handling grade will be low (C?)… but scouting will be needed to see his ratio of Handling/Passing before deciding if that’s a dealbreaker, ladies. Finally, LaMelo Ball… an enigma IRL and a bit here... but I see his profile as a big PG that could easily slide to SG and be a deadly shooter. Playing him at the point may lead to too many TOs, but his skills and size allow him to move up and be a contributor in other ways. Could be a great candidate for the rare 1-3 “Penny Hardaway SuperSub” that hasn’t been seen since the 4.0 Trail Blazers. Like Anthony, I would want to see his Handling/Passing ratio to be sure he isn’t going to be a turnover machine.
Tim’s five: I see some pretty darn near flawless players in this group, or guys with one flaw that can easily be fixed alongside some elite attributes. We probably should’ve approached our limitations in writing this article a tad differently, as more than five players could certainly be getting that $8.9m rookie max.
1. Devin Vassell (current player comp: LeBron James)
2. LaMelo Ball (current player comp: Magic Johnson)
3. Deni Avdija (current player comp: Adrian Dantley)
4. Zeke Nnaji (current player comp: DeAndre Jordan)
5. Killian Hayes (current player comp: Butch Lee)
Tim’s breakdown: I had to give Devin Vassell’s profile a couple of re-reads because I hadn’t heard of him before seeing this rookie class and felt like the next LeBron should’ve been someone I was more familiar with. Then I noticed he went to Florida State and laughed. I’m not sure what Eric and Delap’s rhythm is with getting these profiles written and approved, but I expect this one to raise some red flags. Strong three-point shooter? Check. Good at driving the ball (high inside)? Check. Racks up steals and blocks? Check. Good rebounder? Check. Elite handles? Check. Add in the 6’7 height to allow him to play shooting guard and you’ve got quite the player here. For a guy who averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds in one season as a starter, he sure does have quite the write-up. After him, LaMelo and Avdija look like the next best prospects. LaMelo’s size is tantalizing and he appears to have the scoring chops to average 30 per game without a turnover issue. That enough is worth a top two pick, but you can also throw in some good steal numbers for good measure. Avdija doesn’t have shooting guard eligibility, but can grow to a 6’10 small forward with good scoring chops and “terrific” shot blocking. Finding a player comp was really tough and Dantley isn’t a perfect fit because he doesn’t shoot from outside, but Avdija’s scoring efficiency combined with defense made him the closest current comp IMO. Nnaji is apparently just James Wiseman, but I see a big man with some great defensive and rebounding skills and high potential. DeAndre Jordan has been better offensively than I think we expected, and that’ll be the part of Nnaji’s game where potential will have to take over if he’s going to reach that lofty status. Hayes looks like an efficient scorer albeit with semi-limited volume due to poor athletic attributes without much turnover risk. The rebounding puts his ceiling a bit lower, but we’ve seen terrible rebounders at PG - like Butch - develop that skill to playable over time.
Tier 2 (~$4m - $6m)
Tim’s five: A couple more big names in this group who possess an elite skill or two, but have at least one major flaw that could put their ceiling lower than the guys above them. I could still definitely see two or three of these guys getting the rookie max. I didn’t feel great about any of these current player comps, as most are similar in some ways but very different in others.
1. Anthony Edwards (current player comp: Reggie Theus)
2. Cole Anthony (current player comp: Sergio Rodriguez)
3. Obi Toppin (current player comp: Montrezl Harrell)
4. Isaac Okoro (current player comp: Michael Cooper)
5. Trent Forrest (current player comp: Tyler Ennis)
Tim’s breakdown: Edwards’ lack of outside shooting and high turnovers are going to create some major problems for him, but I definitely expect an overpay because he’s one of the bigger names and I expect a sexy inside grade. I like Theus as his comp because Theus is a solid inside scorer at SG but a below average outside shooter who has had some turnover issues. I like the Sergio Rodriguez comp for Cole Anthony minus Sergio’s steals. High usage, high turnovers with very good rebounding chops. I see Anthony in the same way I see Edwards, that he was a big name in college basketball and will have some appeal because of that. His profile write-up makes me wonder if he’ll eventually settle in as a better shooting guard in TMBSL. Toppin types seem to be a dime a dozen these days, but they’re still valuable as third bigs - solid offensively, average rebounding, below average defensively. The Harrell comparison makes a lot of sense. I thought about Dan Issel as well, though Toppin would need to struggle with turnovers to make that true, and there’s nothing in his profile that indicates he will. Okaro looks like Cooper to me, except for the poor jumper. He’s a small forward whose profile says he may be better suited defending bigs, but his height will allow him to play shooting guard. That defensive versatility ought to be highly coveted. Trent Forrest looks like another Florida Stater who will get a few looks because of his strong defense and what I read as good inside scoring, though it’s possible it could be interpreted differently. There aren’t a ton of great defensive point guards right now IMO, so he could be unique in that way. Rondo is one, but he’s a trainwreck offensively and I expect Forrest to be better than that.
Delap’s five: This group could really depend on the eye of the beholder and the individual GM’s risk tolerance. This seems like a price point for some of the pure Potential players to go. These guys could all blow up and exceed their pre-FA expectations
1. Devin Vassell (current player comp: Alex English)
2. Patrick Williams (current player comp: Steve Johnson)
3. Onyeka Okongwu (current player comp: Pascal Siakam)
4. Deni Avdija (current player comp: Justise Winslow)
5. Precious Achiuwa (current player comp: Mychal Thompson)
Delap’s breakdown: Vassell’s positional versatility and two-way skills should land him near the top of this price point. He is the type of player every team seems to be looking for each year, most likely as a bench contributor at first, but one who could grow into a starter’s role quickly. I could see his grades appearing “average”, but that he would be on the upper-end of average at most everything and ready to jump up several spots during TC. Williams, Okongwu, and Achiuwa should all put up good counting stats on defense, while not necessarily being the most efficient offensive players. However, their upside should make all of them intriguing, especially since they should all be high in Strength and Jumping already. Where their potential lands (A or B) could be very telling about how much they should be offered off the bat. Avdija is locked into the SF position, but looks like a high-level shooter and a rare shot-blocker from the wing.
Tier 3 (~$2m - $3m)
Delap’s five: The price point for most of the remaining profile players, this could be a flyer on potential or a high floor player. The following are my favorites left in this group and those who hold value for the length of their 1st contract.
1. Trent Forrest (current player comp: Derrick Rose)
2. Saddiq Bey (current player comp: Adam Morrison)
3. Kira Lewis (current player comp: John Lucas)
4. Mamadi Diakite (current player comp: Thon Maker)
5. Vernon Carey (current player comp: Dragan Tarlac)
Delap’s breakdown: Forrest won’t have a lot of upside, but he’s strong, low TO, and has a penchant to steal the rock. Could be the ideal “Logan-style” Rondo PG in the future for a team with strong scorers at other positions in an Inside offense. Bey can shoot shoot shoot (I’d expect a B+ or better Outside grade), but won’t take as many as you want him to. He could slide down to SG, which is a big bonus. I’m not sure if those stats will translate to winning, but I see Kira Lewis as a big stats player. He needs +30 to Inside or Strength, but he shouldn’t take much off the table at the point. Diakite and Carey are the opposite sides of an ideal big man, Diakite will bring the defense and will protect the rock… Carey will score in loads but is so slow that he can’t guard anyone. However, they should both but + players on their specific end of the court and should find playing time during their rookie deal.
Noticeably absent from my lists are Haliburton, Hayes, and Hampton… all 3 just scream average to me from the write-up in terms of TMBSL success (strangely I think all 3 will be very good in the NBA).
Tim’s five: These are getting tougher because none of these players look outstanding. They’re the types you might sign as a backup early on or someone with high potential you go after if you miss on your top targets.
1. Theo Maledon (current player comp: Rajon Rondo)
2. Patrick Williams (current player comp: Thon Maker)
3. Kira Lewis (current player comp: Jamal Murray)
4. Onyeka Okongwu (current player comp: Herb Williams)
5. Saddiq Bey (current player comp: Chris Mullin)
Tim’s breakdown: Maledon looks very similar to the current version of Rajon Rondo for me as a good defender with a broken offensive game. One difference that may give him a higher ceiling is that he won’t come into the league with TO issues. He probably won’t be as good of a rebounder either, so it’ll be interesting to see how his upgrades are distributed. Patrick Williams looks like another FSU job and someone whose profile is written in just such a way that he could be very good. He’s a good defender and jump shooter out of the gate, so you won’t have to worry about those. He’ll be a weak inside scorer which +30 can likely fix. Turnovers don’t look like they’ll be an issue, and since he has high potential, his “average at best” rebounding should likely naturally improve. He could definitely be a tier two guy when all is said and done. Kira Lewis reminds me of early stages Jamal Murray, who has always been an efficient scorer but whose potential wasn’t unlocked until he moved to SG to cover his TO problems. Lewis is also a good rebounder for the position, so I think this is a good comp for him. Okongwu looks like a great D/R guy with TO and scoring issues. You can fix one of those things but not both, so he’ll have a ceiling. Definitely an Odin type player. I’m nervous about Bey, who looks like he’ll have low volume, no defensive counting stats, and bad rebounding despite his size. He can play shooting guard which might help offset the rebounding, but I’m not sure he’s the type of guy built for sim success. I liken him to Mullin for the lack of TOs and rebounding, shooting guard eligibility, and efficiency, but I do think Mullin has a higher ceiling as a scorer and defender.
Tier 1: 5 Most Likely to Receive MAX Offers
Delap’s five: There is a lot of top-end talent in our first foray into Rookie FA, but these are the players I see most worthy of a flyer on a MAX. I think almost all of the profile players are worth more than the MIN deals we’ll see cluttering Day 5 bids, but most of them really fall into the next category. These 5 stand out because they have ++ skills in certain areas and don’t have big red flags.
1. Anthony Edwards (current player comp: Mitch Richmond)
2. Zeke Nnaji (current player comp: Theo Ratliff)
3. Obi Toppin (current player comp: Montrezl Harrell)
4. Cole Anthony (current player comp: Dennis Johnson)
5. LaMelo Ball (current player comp: Jamal Murray)
Delap’s breakdown: Edwards looks like an elite scoring guard, especially in an inside system. He may have some slight TO issues, but with what will likely be high starting grades in Inside and Strength, he should have plenty of points to pump into Handling. I would expect him to have B/B scoring grades from the jump, if not a smidge higher. Nnaji, who may or may not be a stand-in for James Wiseman, is a fast, springy defensive-minded center with high upside. Looks to be one of the highest potential players in the class (A). If his FT shooting is north of 70% he will be a real franchise centerpiece. He doesn’t appear to have any real downsides. Toppin should be an instant impact inside scorer who should be more well-developed than the rest of the class at the start. However, his lower end potential and lack of shot-blocking may hard-cap his ceiling. However, like Edwards, if his Inside and Strength are near cap (which I would project, as he’s likely a B+ or A- Inside player), a cool +30 into Shot Blocking could be career-changing for him. Cole Anthony as a lead scoring guard and ++ rebounder seems like a pretty predictable outcome. The only thing that might sabotage him is turnovers… but I would expect his Passing to be very low as well, so poor Handling may not matter. His Handling grade will be low (C?)… but scouting will be needed to see his ratio of Handling/Passing before deciding if that’s a dealbreaker, ladies. Finally, LaMelo Ball… an enigma IRL and a bit here... but I see his profile as a big PG that could easily slide to SG and be a deadly shooter. Playing him at the point may lead to too many TOs, but his skills and size allow him to move up and be a contributor in other ways. Could be a great candidate for the rare 1-3 “Penny Hardaway SuperSub” that hasn’t been seen since the 4.0 Trail Blazers. Like Anthony, I would want to see his Handling/Passing ratio to be sure he isn’t going to be a turnover machine.
Tim’s five: I see some pretty darn near flawless players in this group, or guys with one flaw that can easily be fixed alongside some elite attributes. We probably should’ve approached our limitations in writing this article a tad differently, as more than five players could certainly be getting that $8.9m rookie max.
1. Devin Vassell (current player comp: LeBron James)
2. LaMelo Ball (current player comp: Magic Johnson)
3. Deni Avdija (current player comp: Adrian Dantley)
4. Zeke Nnaji (current player comp: DeAndre Jordan)
5. Killian Hayes (current player comp: Butch Lee)
Tim’s breakdown: I had to give Devin Vassell’s profile a couple of re-reads because I hadn’t heard of him before seeing this rookie class and felt like the next LeBron should’ve been someone I was more familiar with. Then I noticed he went to Florida State and laughed. I’m not sure what Eric and Delap’s rhythm is with getting these profiles written and approved, but I expect this one to raise some red flags. Strong three-point shooter? Check. Good at driving the ball (high inside)? Check. Racks up steals and blocks? Check. Good rebounder? Check. Elite handles? Check. Add in the 6’7 height to allow him to play shooting guard and you’ve got quite the player here. For a guy who averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds in one season as a starter, he sure does have quite the write-up. After him, LaMelo and Avdija look like the next best prospects. LaMelo’s size is tantalizing and he appears to have the scoring chops to average 30 per game without a turnover issue. That enough is worth a top two pick, but you can also throw in some good steal numbers for good measure. Avdija doesn’t have shooting guard eligibility, but can grow to a 6’10 small forward with good scoring chops and “terrific” shot blocking. Finding a player comp was really tough and Dantley isn’t a perfect fit because he doesn’t shoot from outside, but Avdija’s scoring efficiency combined with defense made him the closest current comp IMO. Nnaji is apparently just James Wiseman, but I see a big man with some great defensive and rebounding skills and high potential. DeAndre Jordan has been better offensively than I think we expected, and that’ll be the part of Nnaji’s game where potential will have to take over if he’s going to reach that lofty status. Hayes looks like an efficient scorer albeit with semi-limited volume due to poor athletic attributes without much turnover risk. The rebounding puts his ceiling a bit lower, but we’ve seen terrible rebounders at PG - like Butch - develop that skill to playable over time.
Tier 2 (~$4m - $6m)
Tim’s five: A couple more big names in this group who possess an elite skill or two, but have at least one major flaw that could put their ceiling lower than the guys above them. I could still definitely see two or three of these guys getting the rookie max. I didn’t feel great about any of these current player comps, as most are similar in some ways but very different in others.
1. Anthony Edwards (current player comp: Reggie Theus)
2. Cole Anthony (current player comp: Sergio Rodriguez)
3. Obi Toppin (current player comp: Montrezl Harrell)
4. Isaac Okoro (current player comp: Michael Cooper)
5. Trent Forrest (current player comp: Tyler Ennis)
Tim’s breakdown: Edwards’ lack of outside shooting and high turnovers are going to create some major problems for him, but I definitely expect an overpay because he’s one of the bigger names and I expect a sexy inside grade. I like Theus as his comp because Theus is a solid inside scorer at SG but a below average outside shooter who has had some turnover issues. I like the Sergio Rodriguez comp for Cole Anthony minus Sergio’s steals. High usage, high turnovers with very good rebounding chops. I see Anthony in the same way I see Edwards, that he was a big name in college basketball and will have some appeal because of that. His profile write-up makes me wonder if he’ll eventually settle in as a better shooting guard in TMBSL. Toppin types seem to be a dime a dozen these days, but they’re still valuable as third bigs - solid offensively, average rebounding, below average defensively. The Harrell comparison makes a lot of sense. I thought about Dan Issel as well, though Toppin would need to struggle with turnovers to make that true, and there’s nothing in his profile that indicates he will. Okaro looks like Cooper to me, except for the poor jumper. He’s a small forward whose profile says he may be better suited defending bigs, but his height will allow him to play shooting guard. That defensive versatility ought to be highly coveted. Trent Forrest looks like another Florida Stater who will get a few looks because of his strong defense and what I read as good inside scoring, though it’s possible it could be interpreted differently. There aren’t a ton of great defensive point guards right now IMO, so he could be unique in that way. Rondo is one, but he’s a trainwreck offensively and I expect Forrest to be better than that.
Delap’s five: This group could really depend on the eye of the beholder and the individual GM’s risk tolerance. This seems like a price point for some of the pure Potential players to go. These guys could all blow up and exceed their pre-FA expectations
1. Devin Vassell (current player comp: Alex English)
2. Patrick Williams (current player comp: Steve Johnson)
3. Onyeka Okongwu (current player comp: Pascal Siakam)
4. Deni Avdija (current player comp: Justise Winslow)
5. Precious Achiuwa (current player comp: Mychal Thompson)
Delap’s breakdown: Vassell’s positional versatility and two-way skills should land him near the top of this price point. He is the type of player every team seems to be looking for each year, most likely as a bench contributor at first, but one who could grow into a starter’s role quickly. I could see his grades appearing “average”, but that he would be on the upper-end of average at most everything and ready to jump up several spots during TC. Williams, Okongwu, and Achiuwa should all put up good counting stats on defense, while not necessarily being the most efficient offensive players. However, their upside should make all of them intriguing, especially since they should all be high in Strength and Jumping already. Where their potential lands (A or B) could be very telling about how much they should be offered off the bat. Avdija is locked into the SF position, but looks like a high-level shooter and a rare shot-blocker from the wing.
Tier 3 (~$2m - $3m)
Delap’s five: The price point for most of the remaining profile players, this could be a flyer on potential or a high floor player. The following are my favorites left in this group and those who hold value for the length of their 1st contract.
1. Trent Forrest (current player comp: Derrick Rose)
2. Saddiq Bey (current player comp: Adam Morrison)
3. Kira Lewis (current player comp: John Lucas)
4. Mamadi Diakite (current player comp: Thon Maker)
5. Vernon Carey (current player comp: Dragan Tarlac)
Delap’s breakdown: Forrest won’t have a lot of upside, but he’s strong, low TO, and has a penchant to steal the rock. Could be the ideal “Logan-style” Rondo PG in the future for a team with strong scorers at other positions in an Inside offense. Bey can shoot shoot shoot (I’d expect a B+ or better Outside grade), but won’t take as many as you want him to. He could slide down to SG, which is a big bonus. I’m not sure if those stats will translate to winning, but I see Kira Lewis as a big stats player. He needs +30 to Inside or Strength, but he shouldn’t take much off the table at the point. Diakite and Carey are the opposite sides of an ideal big man, Diakite will bring the defense and will protect the rock… Carey will score in loads but is so slow that he can’t guard anyone. However, they should both but + players on their specific end of the court and should find playing time during their rookie deal.
Noticeably absent from my lists are Haliburton, Hayes, and Hampton… all 3 just scream average to me from the write-up in terms of TMBSL success (strangely I think all 3 will be very good in the NBA).
Tim’s five: These are getting tougher because none of these players look outstanding. They’re the types you might sign as a backup early on or someone with high potential you go after if you miss on your top targets.
1. Theo Maledon (current player comp: Rajon Rondo)
2. Patrick Williams (current player comp: Thon Maker)
3. Kira Lewis (current player comp: Jamal Murray)
4. Onyeka Okongwu (current player comp: Herb Williams)
5. Saddiq Bey (current player comp: Chris Mullin)
Tim’s breakdown: Maledon looks very similar to the current version of Rajon Rondo for me as a good defender with a broken offensive game. One difference that may give him a higher ceiling is that he won’t come into the league with TO issues. He probably won’t be as good of a rebounder either, so it’ll be interesting to see how his upgrades are distributed. Patrick Williams looks like another FSU job and someone whose profile is written in just such a way that he could be very good. He’s a good defender and jump shooter out of the gate, so you won’t have to worry about those. He’ll be a weak inside scorer which +30 can likely fix. Turnovers don’t look like they’ll be an issue, and since he has high potential, his “average at best” rebounding should likely naturally improve. He could definitely be a tier two guy when all is said and done. Kira Lewis reminds me of early stages Jamal Murray, who has always been an efficient scorer but whose potential wasn’t unlocked until he moved to SG to cover his TO problems. Lewis is also a good rebounder for the position, so I think this is a good comp for him. Okongwu looks like a great D/R guy with TO and scoring issues. You can fix one of those things but not both, so he’ll have a ceiling. Definitely an Odin type player. I’m nervous about Bey, who looks like he’ll have low volume, no defensive counting stats, and bad rebounding despite his size. He can play shooting guard which might help offset the rebounding, but I’m not sure he’s the type of guy built for sim success. I liken him to Mullin for the lack of TOs and rebounding, shooting guard eligibility, and efficiency, but I do think Mullin has a higher ceiling as a scorer and defender.
