Post by eric on Apr 12, 2018 19:34:50 GMT
A brief reminder that context is an inextricable part of every individual award:
2017 Damian Lillard: 27 5 6 on 44/37/90 on a 41 win team. not an All-Star, not on any All-NBA Team
2018 Damian Lillard: 27 5 7 on 44/36/92 on a 49 win team. All-Star, getting All-NBA First Team and down ballot MVP buzz
It's not just the team you're on or its other luminaries. There are 5 All-NBA First Teamers and 1 MVP every single year, and they've gotta go to somebody.
Lillard was not a massive snub last year and will not be massively overrated this year.
Last year Harden Westbrook Curry and Isaiah (remember him?) were all much better, and while he could have fairly been named Third Team we could say the same for Paul Lowry Conley DeMar Kyrie and Wall, and with only two spots a lot of deserving guys were going to be left standing when the music ended.
This year Curry Isaiah Paul Kyrie Wall and Conley all missed at least 20 games. Just like that the field of 11 is reduced to 6. Add in Westbrook having to satisfy himself by having the ball in his hands a mere 60% of the time instead of 110%, very marginal improvement by Lillard, and the Raptors duo treading water for the nineteenth season running and he's a shoe-in for the second All-NBA First Team guard.
A shoe-in!
And next year he probably won't make any All-NBA team again.
Context.
.
All-NBA First Team
C Karl-Anthony Towns
F Anthony Davis
F LeBron James
G James Harden
G Damian Lillard
All-NBA Second Team
C Nikola Jokic
F Kevin Durant
F Giannis Antetokounmpo
G Kyle Lowry
G Chris Paul
All-NBA Third Team
C Steven Adams
F Ben Simmons
F Jimmy Butler
G Kyrie Irving
G Steph Curry
Pretty straightforward.
-First team sorts itself with raw Win Shares or any other worthwhile stat.
-Second team does too.
-Third team the only other actual forward worth talking about is Simmons, then I got a little more creative.
-Steph Curry's raw number is lower than Westbrook/DeMar, but his rate production was best in the league after Harden's and the Warriors are still really good, so they should get two guys.
-Kyrie Irving similar though not as strong an argument. It should pretty clearly be one of him and DeMar given how bad everyone else's team is, though.
-Jimmy Butler should get MVP consideration for dragging known loser Andrew Wiggins up and down the floor 48 minutes a night all the way to the playoffs, but pretending he was a forward (for the second year running) will have to do.
-That just leaves center. You have Drummond/Jordan with very good stats and very bad teams, Capela with good stats on a great team who gets spoon fed more than Marcin Gortat, and then Steven Adams with good stats on a middling but nevertheless top 4 seeded team, and who infamously misses out on probably thirteen rebounds a night because he's such a good guy. If you want to go with one of the other three I'm not mad.
-I'm not even mad.
.
.
MVP
1. James Harden
2. LeBron James
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Steph Curry
5. Al Horford
Don't overthink it. LeBron's composite stats are almost indistinguishable from Harden's. You know what's most distinguishable? The Rockets record and the Cavs record. Harden was at worst the second best player this year by an extremely tiny margin, and he's on by far the best team. It's Harden. It's been Harden all year long.
It's Harden.
LeBron and Harden are so far ahead of everyone else statistically that the Cavs being so far behind the other teams didn't bother me putting LeBron #2, and for the same reason it didn't bother me to recognize a Raptor, Warrior, and Celtic. For example Davis has very good stats but not great ones, and his team's even worse than the Cavs.
Why Horford instead of Kyrie, if Kyrie is All-NBA and Horford isn't? Because Horford was more valuable (so MVP), and because center was much more competitive than guard this year (so no All-NBA).
Context.
2017 Damian Lillard: 27 5 6 on 44/37/90 on a 41 win team. not an All-Star, not on any All-NBA Team
2018 Damian Lillard: 27 5 7 on 44/36/92 on a 49 win team. All-Star, getting All-NBA First Team and down ballot MVP buzz
It's not just the team you're on or its other luminaries. There are 5 All-NBA First Teamers and 1 MVP every single year, and they've gotta go to somebody.
Lillard was not a massive snub last year and will not be massively overrated this year.
Last year Harden Westbrook Curry and Isaiah (remember him?) were all much better, and while he could have fairly been named Third Team we could say the same for Paul Lowry Conley DeMar Kyrie and Wall, and with only two spots a lot of deserving guys were going to be left standing when the music ended.
This year Curry Isaiah Paul Kyrie Wall and Conley all missed at least 20 games. Just like that the field of 11 is reduced to 6. Add in Westbrook having to satisfy himself by having the ball in his hands a mere 60% of the time instead of 110%, very marginal improvement by Lillard, and the Raptors duo treading water for the nineteenth season running and he's a shoe-in for the second All-NBA First Team guard.
A shoe-in!
And next year he probably won't make any All-NBA team again.
Context.
.
All-NBA First Team
C Karl-Anthony Towns
F Anthony Davis
F LeBron James
G James Harden
G Damian Lillard
All-NBA Second Team
C Nikola Jokic
F Kevin Durant
F Giannis Antetokounmpo
G Kyle Lowry
G Chris Paul
All-NBA Third Team
C Steven Adams
F Ben Simmons
F Jimmy Butler
G Kyrie Irving
G Steph Curry
Pretty straightforward.
-First team sorts itself with raw Win Shares or any other worthwhile stat.
-Second team does too.
-Third team the only other actual forward worth talking about is Simmons, then I got a little more creative.
-Steph Curry's raw number is lower than Westbrook/DeMar, but his rate production was best in the league after Harden's and the Warriors are still really good, so they should get two guys.
-Kyrie Irving similar though not as strong an argument. It should pretty clearly be one of him and DeMar given how bad everyone else's team is, though.
-Jimmy Butler should get MVP consideration for dragging known loser Andrew Wiggins up and down the floor 48 minutes a night all the way to the playoffs, but pretending he was a forward (for the second year running) will have to do.
-That just leaves center. You have Drummond/Jordan with very good stats and very bad teams, Capela with good stats on a great team who gets spoon fed more than Marcin Gortat, and then Steven Adams with good stats on a middling but nevertheless top 4 seeded team, and who infamously misses out on probably thirteen rebounds a night because he's such a good guy. If you want to go with one of the other three I'm not mad.
-I'm not even mad.
.
.
MVP
1. James Harden
2. LeBron James
3. Kyle Lowry
4. Steph Curry
5. Al Horford
Don't overthink it. LeBron's composite stats are almost indistinguishable from Harden's. You know what's most distinguishable? The Rockets record and the Cavs record. Harden was at worst the second best player this year by an extremely tiny margin, and he's on by far the best team. It's Harden. It's been Harden all year long.
It's Harden.
LeBron and Harden are so far ahead of everyone else statistically that the Cavs being so far behind the other teams didn't bother me putting LeBron #2, and for the same reason it didn't bother me to recognize a Raptor, Warrior, and Celtic. For example Davis has very good stats but not great ones, and his team's even worse than the Cavs.
Why Horford instead of Kyrie, if Kyrie is All-NBA and Horford isn't? Because Horford was more valuable (so MVP), and because center was much more competitive than guard this year (so no All-NBA).
Context.
