Post by jhb on May 22, 2020 1:55:38 GMT
I originally did this article back in 2032 because I got tired of seeing people talk about what was above or below average for different players when it was just way off. I thought I was starting to see some changes against what I had in the original article particularly in rebounding and shooting percentages and wanted to go back and compare and see if things truly had changed.
Maybe I was seeing some differences because of eric's player build changes to beef up the ability of wings after (my very well-founded) complaints about imbalance in player value between the wing and the post or because of realignment or the elimination of cupcake squads; maybe we're not seeing any differences at all because I'm full of shit. Let's find out.
Scoring - 2032
Scoring - 2037
So I think it's extremely clear here that scoring has definitely been affected by the reduction in cupcake teams. In 2032, we still had two cupcake teams (one was filled by Druce midseason and filled out with in-season FAs to the tune of 9 whole wins and a -40 scoring margin). I think that can definitely explain the significant reduction in max-level production even though out averages were more consistent. Interestingly enough, point per 36 averages for positions were within about a point of their previous totals for every position but center. PGs and SFs were slightly up, SGs were down a little bit more, PF was consistent, but the average point per 36 total at center was down almost 2 points per 36 minutes. Apparently we've lost some juice at that position across the board or more people are choosing to turn to more defensive-minded bigs that are lacking on the offensive end at the position.
Scoring efficiency tells a little bit different story. Point guards and small forwards were once again the most consistent with their old numbers but the other three positions dropped pretty significantly from the previous mark, almost .02 pts/tsa at each position. I would also attribute this to the lack of cupcake teams to beat up on.
Another interesting note...scoring seemed to be the only basic counting category where the max performances saw a substantial drop across the board that I would attribute to lack of cupcakes. Other categories seemed to stay much more consistent.
Rebounding - 2032
Rebounding - 2037
This is where I expected to see some change. It felt to me like bigs on average were not rebounding as well as they had before, but the averages say we're almost identical five years later. The largest change was at SF and C, with a reduction of .3 rebounds per 36 minutes. Otherwise the positions were within a tenth of a rebound from their 2032 mark. I guess maybe what I'm seeing is more players that have some flaws. There may have been more complete bigs that could score and rebound in 2032 like Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain whereas now the elite rebounders last season were guys like Juwan Howard and Joakim Noah who are primarily defenders and the elite scorers at the position are guys like Terry Cummings or Christain Laettner or Joel Embiid and Rik Smits who are bad to average at rebounding.
Assists and Turnovers - 2032
Assists and Turnovers - 2037
My big take-away here is that bigs don't pass as much as they used to. Maybe it's the loss of Bill Russell and *checks notes* Julius Randle. Turnovers were fairly consistent, which I didn't expect. I thought having more good robots and two less cupcake teams would lead to a slight tick up across the board.
Defense - 2032
Defense - 2037
These numbers, like rebounding, appear to be fairly consistent, with the exception of some big variances from big individual performances on the high end. Also strangely on the high end, it appears that steals are more distributed to the 1-3 positions rather than PF and C. I wonder if that is a widespread change with defensive settings or just random noise from losing a guy like Bill Russell who was our high water mark previously.
Win Shares per 48 - 2032
Win Shares per 48 - 2037
Big things to note here: there are some huge changes in WS/48 totals for post players. Not nearly as easy as it used to be to accumulate win shares at those positions and it appears to be because of a major lack of high end performers there. No bigs were above .250 WS/48 last year, which is historically wild for this sim league. Even more wild is that the drop across the board for bigs wasn't met with a corresponding increase from the rest of the positions. There was a slight uptick for SGs but a corresponding drop for PGs while SFs stayed relatively consistent. The PG number does not surprise me as that appears to be a position now with Magic as an elite player and then not much else once Oscar retires. Conley is pretty solid but he's on his way out as well.
Maybe I was seeing some differences because of eric's player build changes to beef up the ability of wings after (my very well-founded) complaints about imbalance in player value between the wing and the post or because of realignment or the elimination of cupcake squads; maybe we're not seeing any differences at all because I'm full of shit. Let's find out.
Scoring - 2032
Pos P36_MAX P36_AVG P36_MIN
C 34.9 19.0 10.9
PF 34.5 18.1 11.1
PG 28.0 13.6 5.4
SF 33.3 14.0 4.0
SG 24.6 15.1 5.4 Pos P/T_MAX P/T_AVG P/T_MIN
C 1.223 1.079 0.925
PF 1.260 1.084 0.953
PG 1.184 1.047 0.904
SF 1.255 1.055 0.827
SG 1.239 1.086 0.947 Scoring - 2037
Pos P36_MAX P36_AVG P36_MIN
C 28.1 17.2 7.1
PF 26.3 17.9 9.4
PG 22.4 14.5 8.3
SF 29.6 14.7 6.3
SG 28.5 13.8 4.4 Pos P/T_MAX P/T_AVG P/T_MIN
C 1.213 1.061 0.914
PF 1.238 1.062 0.913
PG 1.177 1.045 0.907
SF 1.271 1.059 0.785
SG 1.228 1.061 0.871So I think it's extremely clear here that scoring has definitely been affected by the reduction in cupcake teams. In 2032, we still had two cupcake teams (one was filled by Druce midseason and filled out with in-season FAs to the tune of 9 whole wins and a -40 scoring margin). I think that can definitely explain the significant reduction in max-level production even though out averages were more consistent. Interestingly enough, point per 36 averages for positions were within about a point of their previous totals for every position but center. PGs and SFs were slightly up, SGs were down a little bit more, PF was consistent, but the average point per 36 total at center was down almost 2 points per 36 minutes. Apparently we've lost some juice at that position across the board or more people are choosing to turn to more defensive-minded bigs that are lacking on the offensive end at the position.
Scoring efficiency tells a little bit different story. Point guards and small forwards were once again the most consistent with their old numbers but the other three positions dropped pretty significantly from the previous mark, almost .02 pts/tsa at each position. I would also attribute this to the lack of cupcake teams to beat up on.
Another interesting note...scoring seemed to be the only basic counting category where the max performances saw a substantial drop across the board that I would attribute to lack of cupcakes. Other categories seemed to stay much more consistent.
Rebounding - 2032
Pos R36_MAX R36_AVG R36_MIN
C 14.9 11.3 8.4
PF 13.2 10.3 8.3
PG 6.2 4.0 2.2
SF 11.5 7.1 5.0
SG 7.4 5.6 4.0 Rebounding - 2037
Pos R36_MAX R36_AVG R36_MIN
C 13.6 11.0 8.6
PF 14.0 10.3 7.5
PG 6.2 4.0 2.6
SF 9.7 6.8 4.5
SG 7.4 5.5 3.4This is where I expected to see some change. It felt to me like bigs on average were not rebounding as well as they had before, but the averages say we're almost identical five years later. The largest change was at SF and C, with a reduction of .3 rebounds per 36 minutes. Otherwise the positions were within a tenth of a rebound from their 2032 mark. I guess maybe what I'm seeing is more players that have some flaws. There may have been more complete bigs that could score and rebound in 2032 like Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain whereas now the elite rebounders last season were guys like Juwan Howard and Joakim Noah who are primarily defenders and the elite scorers at the position are guys like Terry Cummings or Christain Laettner or Joel Embiid and Rik Smits who are bad to average at rebounding.
Assists and Turnovers - 2032
Pos A36_MAX A36_AVG A36_MIN
C 4.4 2.5 1.4
PF 5.0 2.5 1.3
PG 11.7 8.6 5.1
SF 5.0 2.1 1.1
SG 6.6 3.0 1.5Pos T36_MAX T36_AVG T36_MIN
C 4.1 1.9 1.1
PF 3.2 2.0 1.2
PG 3.4 2.3 1.1
SF 2.6 1.7 0.8
SG 4.2 1.8 0.6Pos A/T_MAX A/T_AVG A/T_MIN
C 3.50 1.36 0.59
PF 3.33 1.30 0.75
PG 9.33 4.15 2.11
SF 3.80 1.32 0.50
SG 3.83 1.77 1.07Assists and Turnovers - 2037
Pos A36_MAX A36_AVG A36_MIN
C 4.2 2.2 1.3
PF 4.0 2.2 1.1
PG 12.5 8.7 2.1
SF 4.7 2.3 1.0
SG 5.3 2.4 0.8
Pos T36_MAX T36_AVG T36_MIN
C 3.4 1.9 1.2
PF 2.9 1.9 0.8
PG 4.3 2.4 0.7
SF 3.1 1.7 1.0
SG 2.8 1.5 0.7
Pos A/T_MAX A/T_AVG A/T_MIN
C 2.06 1.21 0.64
PF 2.50 1.24 0.59
PG 12.33 4.23 1.09
SF 2.57 1.41 0.38
SG 4.17 1.69 0.83
My big take-away here is that bigs don't pass as much as they used to. Maybe it's the loss of Bill Russell and *checks notes* Julius Randle. Turnovers were fairly consistent, which I didn't expect. I thought having more good robots and two less cupcake teams would lead to a slight tick up across the board.
Defense - 2032
Pos S36_MAX S36_AVG S36_MIN
C 1.7 1.1 0.5
PF 2.0 1.0 0.5
PG 2.0 1.2 0.7
SF 2.2 1.2 0.7
SG 1.8 1.2 0.7Pos B36_MAX B36_AVG B36_MIN
C 3.3 1.4 0.2
PF 3.6 1.1 0.2
PG 0.4 0.2 0.0
SF 1.4 0.4 0.1
SG 1.1 0.3 0.0Defense - 2037
Pos S36_MAX S36_AVG S36_MIN
C 1.5 1.1 0.6
PF 1.4 1.0 0.4
PG 2.3 1.3 0.7
SF 2.5 1.2 0.8
SG 2.3 1.4 0.5
Pos B36_MAX B36_AVG B36_MIN
C 4.4 1.4 0.4
PF 3.4 1.1 0.2
PG 0.4 0.2 -
SF 1.2 0.4 0.1
SG 1.2 0.3 -
These numbers, like rebounding, appear to be fairly consistent, with the exception of some big variances from big individual performances on the high end. Also strangely on the high end, it appears that steals are more distributed to the 1-3 positions rather than PF and C. I wonder if that is a widespread change with defensive settings or just random noise from losing a guy like Bill Russell who was our high water mark previously.
Win Shares per 48 - 2032
Pos W48_MAX W48_AVG W48_MIN
C 0.276 0.138 0.005
PF 0.297 0.122 (0.015)
PG 0.243 0.094 (0.028)
SF 0.350 0.083 (0.061)
SG 0.203 0.073 (0.079)Win Shares per 48 - 2037
Pos W48_MAX W48_AVG W48_MIN
C 0.240 0.115 0.023
PF 0.234 0.109 (0.028)
PG 0.263 0.088 (0.069)
SF 0.301 0.082 (0.005)
SG 0.182 0.078 -
Big things to note here: there are some huge changes in WS/48 totals for post players. Not nearly as easy as it used to be to accumulate win shares at those positions and it appears to be because of a major lack of high end performers there. No bigs were above .250 WS/48 last year, which is historically wild for this sim league. Even more wild is that the drop across the board for bigs wasn't met with a corresponding increase from the rest of the positions. There was a slight uptick for SGs but a corresponding drop for PGs while SFs stayed relatively consistent. The PG number does not surprise me as that appears to be a position now with Magic as an elite player and then not much else once Oscar retires. Conley is pretty solid but he's on his way out as well.
