Post by jhb on May 21, 2020 14:50:15 GMT
This roundtable is a deep dive into the minds behind the most successful franchises (save for Ward, who didn’t want to spill his trade secrets) over the last quarter century of sim seasons. We’ll discuss what these GMs look for in the draft, how the evaluate players, their trade strategies, their “brand” of team they prefer, and all other manner of different meta discussion.
T: Timpig
S: Skrouse
M: Majic
D: Delap
J: JHB
Draft
1. What are your top 3 attributes you look for in a prospect?
T: This can vary quite a bit depending on where I’m picking and if I’m looking at profile or non-profile guys. For both, I’m staying far, far away from anyone who might have high turnovers. If I see a non-profile guy with passing as a strength then I’m out or a profile guy who “defers to his teammates” or something along those lines then I’m out. Other than that, I think what I prioritize most are a salvageable inside grade and an outside grade that’s at least a C-. I’m fine if someone doesn’t shoot 3s, but if they can’t make free throws then they’re probably not someone I want to get too close to. All of this can get thrown to the wind a bit if it’s the late first or early second round and I see a non-profile guy with potential as his strength. Those guys can always be worth taking the chance.
S: I have not scouted much so I usually don't have the actual attributes. But if we're just talking in general, it's potential, scoring and low turnovers. Those 3 are all weighted pretty high for me.
M: Scoring, defense and efficiency. Finding a prospect that has all 3 is extremely hard and rare. The key is find a player that can offer 2 of the 3. This where gauging the players weaknesses and how effective upgrades will be to improve. Most players need a little help, so finding someone that has a good base level in these 3 is key.
D: *disclaimer* Clearly I don’t always follow my rules, but this is my initial thinking, usually. Also, I’m good enough at this to always have a good team… but rarely a great one. Take everything I say with a heaping of salt. Clearly it’s positional, but generally I want to see the following in a major player: A high inside grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by strength, a high outside grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by 3pt, and a high handling grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by passing. If you are searching for low-shooting Bigs or Point Guards you would still want some of that, but you would also pay more attention to rebounding/defense… but that is for a specific role player. If you are looking for an all-around contributor, you want them to shoot efficiently and not turn the ball over, so the 3 attributes I listed are my go-tos.
J: 1. An elite skill. Do they have something that makes them unique? Whether it be blocks or rebounding or scoring, do they have a skill that will put them at the top 5% of the league in some metric. With Embiid and Shaq their scoring stats when they came out were both elite and their stats scouts showed shotblocking had some potential (even if that never truly developed for Shaq).
2. Outside of their elite skills, are they at least close to average at everything else? While having an elite skill is nice, do they do enough elsewhere to cover up for their shortcomings? For example, Jerry Lucas was an elite effiency and volume scorer but his defense was atrocious. I was okay with that for a time because he was also a solid rebounder and before he became the main focus of the offense his turnovers weren’t that bad. But at some point that hole puts a ceiling on your team and you have to trade him for a LaPhonso Ellis to win a title. A guy like Bradley Beal is an elite defender and while his offense has truly never been consistently spectacular, it isn’t a hole and makes him a well-rounded player outside of his elite skill (which is defense). The one hole that I will abide in an otherwise good player is having scoring in the 0.95-1.1 pts/tsa range for a C-SF (so long as their jumpshot isn’t broken) because that +25 inside upgrade could turn them into a star.
3. Potential
2. What's your strategy when picking in the top 3-5 versus later in the draft? Does your strategy change?
T: I wouldn’t say the strategy changes a great deal. I’m still looking for the same strengths and avoiding the same weaknesses. Of course, I’m much more willing to scout a guy if I’m picking in the top 3-5 than a second rounder so I can learn a lot more about their builds that way.
S: Top 3-5 pick is definitely a "don't fuck this up" strategy whereas later in the draft it's more hit or miss, so I tend to be less cautious. Much more willing to take a shot on a bust after pick 7 or 8, if there a chance he could blow up
M: For me I pay attention to the name and draft class recognition. Having a pick in the 3-5 range is great when its a deep, well known class. It gets alot harder when its a perceived "weaker" class and only has 1-2 stars. This where it becomes increasingly important to utilize scouting and get all the information you can. You can never spend too much to know you are drafting a top tier player, or know exactly what needs to be improved on a player. Get every piece of information you can.
D: If I’m picking in the Top 5 I want to be as sure as possible that I’m drafting a contributor and potential star. Scout at least stats, but maybe more, to make sure the player isn’t going to bust or have some unknown major flaw. Those picks only come around every so often so you can’t afford to be overly risky. Once I get later in the 1st Round I’m much more willing (and likely) to shoot for potential on boom/bust type guys. In the 2nd Round my strategy has been to shot-gun and just grab picks… a strategy that seems to have been adopted more frequently by others in recent years. Our Minor League teams are really underutilized by some franchises.
J: Top 3-5 I’m looking for attributes that will give me a player that can contribute immediately and potential is a bit secondary to that choice. Obviously if two players are close I’m going with upside and how their current attributes work within the framework of how we are able to upgrade players to be able to optimize what I’m working with. Outside the top 5 I’m potential hunting and hoping for lottery tickets. Once those players are gone I’ve traditionally looked for shot-blockers or high handling PGs. Shot blocking is a good skill to have and it usually comes with bigs who you can really do a lot with a +25 inside upgrade with and the PGs with high handling usually at worst could turn into a solid backup PG so long as they don’t have another major hole in their game.
3. Break down a pick you made from the most recent draft you participated in and tell us what was going through your mind as you made it.
T: I kind of picked Ajinca last draft but he’s now in Atlanta so I guess I’ll talk about Patrick Ewing Jr. He’s a 6’7 small forward, which means he’s shooting guard eligible and has no inside cap for upgrades. He started with B inside and inside as a strength, so if he can still receive +25 his scoring volume should be alright. The C rebounding isn’t super appealing if I were expecting him to play small forward, but it’d be pretty solid for a shooting guard. If his turnovers and jumper aren’t awful, he could be a solid backup SF and SG. Joe Alexander fit the same criteria but I honestly completely missed that he was still available.
S: 1.4 - DeAndre Jordan - But to get the whole story we have to start at the top of the draft.
Before grades came out Rose felt like the consensus #1, Beasley's scoring grades changed that. I was excited when I first saw his grades because I thought for sure he was an option, no way JHB would pass on Rose. So I started planning to try and move back up the draft from 1.9 to get Beasley a running mate, possibly Russ.
When JHB took Beasley, my whole strategy changed. Rose fell in my lap, pretty easy decision once I saw his full build. But I had also had a stats scout on Love which looked really good. So my mind immediately went to pairing Rose and Love. After I was unable to get Druce to move 1.3, I took Rose and began rereading the profiles and looking at the rest of the grades to see who I might want to try and trade back up for. I really liked Jordan's profile. Potential to be good at everything a big needs to be, but raw. His age really made a difference, being 19 and full of potential, he could take time to grow and still be young. And there really wasn't a wing worth trading back into the top 8 to get, but 19 yr Eric Gordon might just make it to 9.
So Druce takes Love and puts 1.4 on the block. I decide to text Druce to shift our convo about 1.3 to 1.4, however this time I was no longer willing to part with 1.9, I had to keep that to get Gordon. So we work out a deal he not only trades me for the rights to 1.4, but Druce also trades me the full build scout for Russ Westbrook. I had no intention of even considering Westbrook when I made the trade, but Druce said the scouts came with the pick so I asked for them, more info is always better right? Well, after seeing his full build I hesitated.
Rose and Westbrook weren't that far apart in key attributes, I actually kinda preferred Russ's build, but there was 1 key difference, Rose's potential. Which isn't necessarily a knock on Westbrook. So now I'm stuck, Russ looks really good, should I just take both PGs and ensure I get the best one? That move felt overly cautious and a waste of 1 of my 2 top 4 picks. I decided the right move was to scout Jordan and go from there. But I was low on bucks, and didn't want to hold up the draft to cash in my bank or trade for bucks. So I thought about playing either Russ or Rose at 2, but their builds weren't really right for that. And there was another 2 guard that I had my eye on.
I went with my gut in the end and pulled the trigger on the 19 yr old big man and fortunately Eric Gordon fell to me at 9. Now I just need a few solid TCs and the Magic are on their way back to the promise land.
M: Malik Beasley is someone I targeted in the draft and wanted once I was up at 7. I did a workout and he did well which only pushed me more to draft him. I took a page out of JHB's book and really got interested in him based on his potential as a strength. He was a 19 year old with high potential which means he gets a teen TC and hopefully continues to grow. The extra bonus was the fact I could add an inch and get him to 6'6.
D: I only had my 2nd round (and 3rd round) picks available in the most recent draft. I drafted George Hill in the late 2nd. My offense has been inside-focused for a bit and I expect it will still be with Bird/Issel entering their primes soon… I need a solid low-TO guard to grow with them. Hill’s grade-set looks like he won’t really shoot and that his handling is based on handles, not passing, so he’ll likely be a low TO guy. Given who was on the board at the time I think I made a decent pick… but who knows?
J: In the most recent draft, it was pretty simple. Grades came out and Beasley looked like the clear BPA. I full scouted him and also Rose so I would have additional intel to share that I could begin exchanging for the extra scouting info that other GMs had to see if there might be someone I wanted to trade back into the draft for. I did this the year before with Buddy Hield and it was highly successful. I immediately had my eye on DeAndre Jordan after my pick because of the upside designation in his profile and a decent set of starting grades. So I reached out to druce about a trade for 1.4 but clearly didn’t have the juice to get that done so I started trying to find an alternative to Jordan among the profile players. Hibbert also had some upside and shot-blocking and strength comments in his profile but an uglier starting gradeset with C rebounding so I figured I’d give that a shot if I could make a deal work. I had been after Kujo’s 1.1 because I think Garnett could be a Magic/LeBron level player and when that deal started to come together I pushed to also get 1.8 so I could pick up Hibbert as well. Finally, I had 1.11 and it came down to choosing between Ajinca and Dragic. I liked the idea of Dragic as a no shoot, don’t break it, play D PG and already had 2 upside bigs in Hibbert and POB in St. Louis so I went Dragic. Fortunately, I got a lucky break and Ajinca also made his way to Atlanta.
4. How do you value draft picks in trades?
T: I’m a huge fan of drafting and even more so now that scouting is available, so I love to accumulate draft picks. Of course, I’d rather have a great pick in the 2043 TMBSL Draft (1985 IRL Draft) but not all of us can be so lucky as to be GIFTED 1.1 and a future Hall of Famer by the wheel as Majic is, but I digress. Even in perceived bad drafts, I think there are always 3-4 really solid players to be had. If you pay attention, you can see how other people are valuing certain draft slots as the draft is proceeding, so if you don’t feel like you’re going to get the most out of your top pick you can send it for a similar pick in another year. With scouting and the ability to get the full build of a player, the value of draft picks has increased for me because the chance of picking a massive bust has significantly decreased.
S: Each pick is valued differently, with the wheel you've always got to look ahead and compare classes before trading a pick. So I try to use that spin value in my favor.
M: The exact location of the pick and the draft class are the 2 most important factors. No matter the class, if a 1.1 or 1.2 is involved its going to be in exchange for a proven star. Anytime a pick that falls between 3-7 the specific draft class becomes important. As I mentioned above, if one of those picks in a loaded draft then it will be worth more than a pick in a top heavy draft. Later round picks to me are treated as more thrown ins that actual value. There can be good-great players found later in the draft, its just a lot more random.
D: I’m a quantity over quality guy. I’d rather get two 1.4s than a 1.1, for example. Some of that is draft dependent, obviously, but given the successes of mid-to-late 1st round picks, more bites at the apple is a good thing. We have had more than a few 1.1 busts (even after they were scouted)… so more is better than just a high pick.
J: I try to think of it by comparing the pick to what I’d expect to get out of it. I'm looking for shots at the best players in the league when I get draft picks over having a bunch of good picks.
Multiple top 5 picks: Elite Players (LeBron, Majic, etc)
Top 1-5: 10+ WS guys
6-10: Solid role players
10+: Don’t care, can usually get these picks in trades during the draft for bucks so they are throwaways to me, trade filler to make someone feel nice
5. What things in prospects are immediately disqualifying if you see them in a build?
T: Turnovers.
S: High turnovers and overtly poor defense.
M: The easy answer here is anytime it mentions poor efficiency, but thats an easy one. The other thing I disqualify is if a player has very poor defense. In the league right now you need guys that can be at least somewhat effective on both ends of the floor. Spending draft capital on a player that is one dimensional is a waste.
D: High passing, low potential. Training Camps, which are the thing most out of our control, really make or break players… no matter how the commissioner builds them. By removing the mere opportunity for big improvement when a player has low potential can really just crush someone, even if they start out with a decent build. You can’t bank on a build being good enough without some TC love. High passing just tends to be a TO red-flag.
J: I hate high passing and/or poor handling, poor rebounding, broken jumpers (sub-60), and generally bad defense. I can get over one of these with elite skills elsewhere. When you start talking about multiple of these deficiencies it gets a little sketchy. Beasley is borderline here so I’m a bit worried about him and hoping his scoring eases all concerns.
Evaluating Players
6. What's your method for evaluating players that you intend to trade for or when scouting free agency?
T: When it comes to free agency, I’m looking for the Christian Laettner’s of the world - someone who has been undervalued but still has upgrades left and is capable of making an enormous leap. Solid FG% and FT% combined with low turnovers and I’m probably willing to take a chance on you. Trades are different because if you come for a player that isn’t on the block too hard, generally the current GM knows that you see something, so I’ll usually just stick with what’s posted in blocks and what people are looking for.
S: Per36 is the home base, I export that to excel and then look at certain ratios. Such as Bleals vs TOs. If you're sub 1 that's baaad m'kay? In order for me to even look at you, you gotta be good at everything else.
M: Everyone looks at a players stats so that goes without an explanation. Outside of that, I like to observe who the current GM is, and how that player is being used. There are a number of players around the league that are not being utilized correctly or ignored by the GM. Recognizing this can often times get you great value in exchange for the asset and/or cap space you are offering.
D: I always start with this question: What role are they filling and how do they fit around my best current players? If the answer is unclear, I tend to avoid them. I use the same basic principles as I do for drafting, but with stats it is easier: low TOs, high P/TSA for everyone… add in good per36 blocks, rebounds, and/or steals for guys who don’t shoot as well or that much. Evaluating the type of offense you are running compared to where they have been before is key as well. If they are coming from a different system, can you be sure that those skills they have will translate? Are they being goosed by an outside skillset when I run inside? Is that going to work out?
J: I’m hunting value. So I’m looking for guys who are good but their current GM has soured on them and there is some arbitrage opportunity (Rik Smits) or I’m looking for someone who might be a little restless and ready to compete and will give up a solid pick to get some players when I’m blowing it up (kujo and the 1.1). Another big thing I look for is players who seem to have it all but one thing you can mostly fix with upgrades (Chris Bosh, Paul Silas, etc).
In terms of actual player evaluations, I have a stat that I’ve made up called player value that measures each player’s win shares above the average for their position group (while also adjusting for the overall success of the team they are a member of), pts/tsa above the average for their position group, and their defensive counting stats (.5*steals+blocks) above the average for their position group. It then combines those three aspects and shoots out single number to evaluate players on. It’s a pretty good gauge IMO because if you just look at win shares it makes elite wings look like regular bigs, etc. Also I don’t think win shares gives enough credit to the elite defenders that drive the defensive success of elite defensive teams. If you're evaluating players based on points per game and field goal percentage at this point, you're an idiot and you're always going to be behind the teams using better metrics.
7. What are your main traits you look for in players?
T: High FG% and FT%, no turnovers, and, if they’re a big or small forward, decent rebounding. For the most part I don’t look a ton at defense. If a big can average even a block per-36 or a wing can average a steal per-36, that’s good enough for me and I’ll see how they fit the other criteria.
S: The basics, scoring, defense, low TOs. It really depends on team need, for example if our block numbers are low I'll try to add a guy like Clint Capela to my bench that has a good Bleal to TO ratio and decent rebounding numbers. Don't need a guy like that to score so as long as his attempts are low we'er good. But it varies, a vet like Jerry West in the twilight of his career but still scoring buckets can also add value off the bench.
M: This really mirrors my answer to question #1. I want players that are Efficient, play defense and can score. To be an elite team you need to have 2-3 guys that can do all 3 things, which is not easy to find. Additionally, its important to add complimentary pieces that fit with your top 2-3. These complimentary pieces wont be able to do all 3 phases at a high level, but can offer elite ability in 1 or maybe 2 of them.
D: Basically the same answer as last question. Do they fit the team dynamic I’m trying to build? Will they be an overall asset? I tend to be an optimist in life and in sim, so I generally take the rosiest view of what they could be on my team and believe that will happen. Clearly that bites me from time to time, but you have to able to see the best-case scenario for some role players as you are filling out the roster, otherwise everyone looks like garbage.
J: Shot-blocking, low turnovers, at least 70% from the FT line, good size, high strength for bigs, efficiency that is good enough to be great with a +25 inside upgrade.
8. What is an absolute turn-off for you in terms of things that will make a player untouchable for you?
T: Turnovers.
S: TOs are the big one for me, and applied evenly to pretty much all positions, keep TOs down and a lot tends to go right. The rest would vary by position. I'm not interested in bigs that can't rebound unless it's a Jerry Lucas situation. Don't want a SG/SF with a low P/TSA.
M: For me I think its better to break this down by positional group, as each position requires different skill sets: PG - high TO's are an absolute no to me. Wing - anytime that have bad efficiency or a combination of low rebounds/no defense. Bigs - anytime they have bad rebounding or a combination of no defense/no scoring.
D: Super high TOs for everyone, too much shooting at low efficiency for bigs. With the increased powers of bigs in the league, we have a subset that have enough inside/strength that their usage has skyrocketed, but the efficiency isn’t there. Those guys tend to take shots away from better players and you just can’t have that. I haven’t noticed the problem being as prevalent for wings/PGs, probably because of the caps we have… so I always pay attention to that (shot attempts, namely) for bigs that I’m looking at.
J: Turnovers and bad defense without multiple elite skills elsewhere.
Free Agency
9. How do you decide contract values you offer in FA?
T: This is admittedly the toughest part of sim league for me because it’s such a crapshoot and there are GMs out there who are always willing to overpay to accommodate their situation. If I’m building or rebuilding, I’m doing so through the draft and not committing long contracts except to max guys. The draft is what I focus on to build the core, and anything I get in free agency is generally considered a supplement or “nice to have.”
S: A balance between my cap space and the others with similar needs. My cap space tends to be key, I tend to offer deals that fit my situation, they don't always hit and you do lose guys like Conley and KAJ. But you also get guys on sweet deals like Cummings, Dame and Waiers. I will also look for MLE level guys and could fit on a lot of teams with limited cap, I'll always look to offer them just over MLE, like 5 or 6 mil to increase my chances.
M: This is probably one of the hardest things to gauge in the league right now for me and its because of a few factors. The league has had a solid rotation of 3-4 contending teams that are pretty locked in with their cap. On a yearly basis you can count on 3-4 teams have near max cap space and a hole or two to fill. Lastly, the recent FA classes have lacked the depth and/or star power. Given all of the above, I try to break down contract offers into 3 levels: Level 1 is your sure-fire max offers. Level 2 is any contract that falls in that 7-11 million range, Level 3 is your mid level contract players. Finding players that fall into Level 2 is key, as is determining their length. Anytime I have gone with a Level 2 type offer, I have tried to keep it to a shorter contract, unless I felt really good on the value. Another huge factor in offering deals is considering where the other teams Cap Situation is at. Knowing who you are bidding against can often times give you an advantage to either outbid them, or sign a guy on a below market deal.
D: If a guy isn’t worth a MAX, don’t MAX him. That’s the biggest rule. If someone isn’t worth a MAX, you probably need to go down several million to find their right value. While someone might be worth 10-11m… that is functionally the same as a MAX deal and will cause the same kind of cap problems. If you really need to pay someone around that price point, try to make it for fewer years if possible. You are probably better off going with an MLE or 5-6m player for a year and finding a stopgap (while maintaining flexibility) than paying that 10-11m player that amount for more than 3 years. I personally avoid deals longer than 3 years unless it is an absolute steal of a deal or a MAX. The goal should be to have flexibility and soft cap space every year unless you are a sure-fire contender.
J: My goal is to offer an amount that will make me feel extremely uncomfortable about retaining a player, that my offer may be beat unless I just have extra space that I don’t have anything to do with it. For example, I only offered Larry Wright around MLE-level when he was up for renewal because I thought any more than that would be prohibitive with Armond Hill also resigning and him playing better at the time. I try to make sure that if I am giving out a max to a player not currently on my team that it’s a deal I’ll still feel strong about in 3-4 years or a player that is at least pretty well renowned around the league and can be flipped.
10. Go back to a deal you made in a recent free agency for a non-exception, non-resign, or non-max player and walk us through how you landed on the bid you'd offer and why. Were there other players you were targeting with similar deals and why?
T: The last time I can remember signing a big but non-max FA was Rick Barry like eight or nine seasons ago. He was a guy who had shown scoring promise but hadn’t been upgraded. I was willing to make a big offer because his contract wouldn’t have interfered with the ability to re-sign any of my upcoming high draft picks and I wasn’t going to have soft cap room without him anyway. I was in a position where any cap space I had for the foreseeable future (it’s now been like 12 seasons and counting) was going to be occupied by re-signed players coming off of rookie contracts. I actually just went back to the PMs and changed my Day 1 offer for Barry four times (sorry eric) - going from $6.5 x 1 to $6.5 x 3 to $8.5 x 3 to $12.5 x 5, which is where I ended after I realized having him for five years wouldn’t hamper me.
S: Nothing comes to mind that is a non-exception, non-resign, or non-max player, I guess maybe Horford. He was a guy I thought would be easy to move so I offered him a 10 mil deal so it was manageable. Figured he may go for close to a 1 year max but those deals can be tough to move to a contender. Most contenders can make a deal for a 10 mil contract without a major overhaul.
M: Dion Waiters and Roy Hamilton are really the only 2 guys I have signed in the last several years and both were done using the same approach: 1 year max offer. These offers provide a high upside with little to no risk. If the player plays great, I stand a high chance at resigning them. If they end up being terrible, or not worth the money I can cut bait after 1 year.
D: I just signed Billy Ray Bates for 3 years, 10m. I offered the same deal to Tiny Archibald. I was looking for a young (room to grow) PG who would have low TOs and basically facilitate and not shoot. I offered an amount that would likely get them to sign, but wouldn’t hamstring me for the future if they don’t work out.
J: This year I signed Alex English to a 6 year, 6 mil, 0% deal. I thought of it as an insurance policy in case one of Beasley or Hield doesn’t work out and at worst it’s a deal for an elite third wing for the entirety of the contract and I can live with paying that to have guaranteed elite production there.
11. What is your FA strategy when you are over the soft cap and can only use exceptions and mins?
T: If I’m contending immediately I’m looking for a third or fourth wing or third or fourth big. Those always come in handy in case of injury or in case you see a deal on the table for your 2nd or 3rd big/wing. If someone is desperate for a 2nd or 3rd big, maybe I can send them mine for a mid to late first and not really miss a beat using that exception as their replacement. Now I’ve provided some insurance for the future while not sacrificing anything in the present.
S: Throw as many exception and min offers as I can and see what happens. It's much simpler than having soft cap and trying to make deals being offered fit together if you're hoping to get multiple players.
M: This is similar to what I mentioned above but I like to find guys that were either buried on the the Depth Chart or were just neglected/forgotten by their GM. I believe that there are a few players around the league that are stuck, getting no playing time but could be very useful in a rotation. Its not easy to find them but with our new extension rule it can be very rewarding if you do.
D: Mass signing. Stockpiling isn’t a bad thing, even if you never intend on playing someone. We have thin enough reserves of players, especially on the wing and at PG, that you can really hamper other teams by holding onto players on your bench that you can sign during FA late with MINs. The recent extension rule also allows you to take more chances on developmental players with MIN deals, as you can go ahead and extend them if they work out… before that I would only go after proven commodities with those types of contracts.
J: First and foremost I’m looking to fill needs. Hopefully if I’m over the soft cap I’ve at least got my starting lineup locked in and most of my depth. If I need a third big or wing or a backup PG I’m prioritizing those needs into which 2 positions have the most dire need for an upgrade and then I’m making all my MLEs to the most pressing need then LLEs to the second most pressing need. If most of my needs are filled, I’m looking for the hidden gems. The players with everything but one thing I can fix with an upgrade who are currently overlooked. Typically 26 and under. Get them on an exception where I can extend them if the upgrade works out and they turn into the player I think they can be.
Trading
12. How do you break down value in a trade when comparing something like a player to a future pick or even bucks where there is not so much of an advanced stat comparison to be able to judge fair value?
T: I hate trading any of my high picks, so this is really hard to answer. It’s not often the cap situation works out where I can trade a high pick straight up for an established stud. I haven’t had a lot of $9-$-10m bird year contracts to match and make a trade like that feasible in a long time. If I think I can get a solid player in the top 5 (I pretty much always think I can), then I probably don’t want to swap that and the value of a four-year rookie contract for a stud that someone else is trying to get rid of for a reason. When it comes to trading one of my players for a future pick, it often has more to do with my upcoming cap situation than it does anything else. Freeing up said cap space to retain key pieces can be the biggest value when evaluating trade opportunities.
S: It's tough, it again can be circumstantial. Near the beginning of a rebuild you tend to have less picks and limited assets to move. So I am always looking for volume and high quality. For example moving Terry Cummings for just 1 pick was tough, even though it was a 1.2. Felt like I wasn't getting enough in that deal. Once you've stockpiled picks and you're clearing out the roster it gets easier to take a late 1st or a couple 2nds for guys that may only be playing 15 - 20 mins a game. Trading from a contenders position can be completely different, where you may have less assets you're willing to move and a tighter cap.
M: Eric has talked about this many times, but finding a deal where both GM's are getting an asset that matches their current "plan" is key. Its important to find assets that match your plan. For instance, right now I am trying to contend and push for a title, so proven players are far more important to me than draft picks. In the recent trade I madewith Druce, we had opposite approaches, he wanted picks/future assets and I wanted the proven player. Both of us got what we wanted and came away with important value.
D: Teams have differing motivations. GMs struggle, myself included, when they don’t stay on the same path for long enough. No single trade is going to erase seasons and seasons of erratic strategy or poor planning. Fair value is tricky, but as I said earlier, multiple picks impress me more than 1.1s (typically). The bucks don’t impress me, but if you can extract multiple (3 or more picks) from someone, I typically think you did well.
J: I kind of broke down how I value draft picks in trades earlier. To me bucks are meaningless because currency isn’t real and can be generated really easily unless I have an immediate pressing need for liquidity.
13. How do you prefer to engage in trades? Do you have a methodology for targeting trade partners?
T: I’m usually sticking to blocks that are posted or posting those that are my own. I’ll usually get text inquiries and know off the bat if the person is serious or not. If I go outside of a block, it’s usually to snag a rental from a non-contender for a late pick or bucks. There are multiple GMs I’m less inclined to engage in serious negotiations with because doing so is like pulling teeth.
S: No real methodology, usually based on team need. Don't care what team it is, if they have something I need/want, I ask them if they're willing to move it, then gauge their response and go from there.
M: When attempting to trade for a player, I generally try to stick around the edges and approach trades with teams that are in the middle/bottom of the league. I will also focus on team that are starting a rebuild or have a cap crunch. I generally leave the other contenders alone as its unlikely they would want to trade, and even if they did it would require 110% value.
D: Text, best offers up front. I will trade with almost anyone, seeking a mutually beneficial trade. The people who struggle to get trades done are trying to win a trade by making you lose one… instead of a mutual benefit. I can think of two trades recently with TimPig that have worked out really well for each of us, with me netting Dan Issel (after his 1st year) and ‘Nique on a value contract and him getting the best Bosh year on record and a few 1st round picks. He clearly has done fine with winning, and I’ve set my team up for success in the coming seasons.
J: I mentioned this earlier but I am hunting people who have needs I can fill and may have some arbitrage opportunity on an asset that I value more than they do. For example going to Delap and picking up Rik Smits because he’d soured on him and then using him as a key piece in a trade to sell kujo on the idea of using his 1.1 to fill out his entire roster rather than getting just one good player at 1.1 where there is still some risk. I only use trade blocks if I just don’t see any trades on the market and am looking for a hail mary.
Teambuilding Strategy
14. Do you have a brand or an ethos that you shoot for in building a team? Are you looking for hard-nosed grit and grind defense or splash-brother style shooting?
T: Inside, inside, inside. Can a player be good with a high inside grade and average outside grade? Definitely. Can a player be good with an average inside grade and high outside grade? Maybe, but it’s certainly much less likely. Rebounds are secondary for me. I’m willing to have one sub-par rebounder start for me, but probably not more than that. Obviously turnovers are a no-go for me, so if someone has high turnovers the rest of this doesn’t matter. When it comes to defense, averaging a steal per game if you’re a wing or a block per game as a big is probably good enough.
S: I am open to any style, you've gotta stay flexible and run the system that fits the best talent you're able to acquire. I prefer a fast paced, outside focus because 3s are greater than 2s, but you can't always get the right pieces for that.
M: I have had several contending teams and each seemed to have a different "brand" or style to them. My first title team was built around a core with an elite PG, elite SF and an elite PF that scored. My second title team was very different in that it was built around a dominant big rotation and then high efficiency every where else. My current team is probably a mix between both styles that I have had. This is all just a long way of saying no, I dont have 1 set way I like to build a team. I simply try to aquire the talent then add in the complimentary pieces around them to try and push me over the top.
D: You have to match the skills of your best player(s) and be able to build around them. Like the Durant outside/inside discussion in Shout! Yesterday, some players thrive in different systems. While I had Kyrie I ran an outside offense because it would be silly not to. I tried to surround him with good outside shooting and no-shoot D/R bigs so he could get as much usage as possible. Now that my best scorers are wings/bigs I go inside all the way and need bigs that shoot efficiently and guards that will feed them the ball. Don’t put square pegs in round holes.
J: First and foremost I want to play defense. My best teams have all done that. Jonas, Olden, Kawhi, Jax, and God were all good defenders. Embiid, Ellis, Worthy, and Beal were all good defenders. After that I’m looking to score efficiently while not sacrificing rebounding. The teams in the middle that featured Shaq and Jerry Lucas were consistently good because my offense was elite but they just didn’t have the juice on defense. I honestly thought Shaq would be a much better defender and if he was he’d still probably be a Hawk. My second team was not as successful IMO because while they scored at an elite level, the rebounding just wasn’t there because I didn’t have anyone that came close to the rebounding I got out of Jonas and Olden.
15. What advanced metrics do you track to gauge the success of your team?
T: I don’t look at the advanced team stats too much except to understand where I’m lacking if my team is really struggling, or see what I’m near the top in if my team is excelling. It’s pretty easy with our Team Stats to see where I sit with regards to rebounding percentage, assist-turnover ratio, pts/tsa, etc. If I’m struggling and one of those is low, I know what to fix.
S: Not many, I really a lot Yearly Statistics to make sure my team's hitting certain marks. SRS is really the one I value the most.
M: I pretty much rely on the stats and information that eric posts and are available. I like to check the advanced stats posted every sim as well as the Team stats. I find the team stats to be something I look at to determine if there is a particular area I am weak at. WS also play a big role as it can help determine player and system value.
D: P/TSA, Rebound %, Total Shot Blocking, TOs. I don’t remember what the real 4 factors are… but those 4 are the ones I pay the most attention to. To be fair, 2 of those aren’t advanced… but whatever.
J: My strategy is simple. Get more possessions than the other team and use them as well as possible. So you need to focus on turnovers, rebounding percentage, and Pts/tsa and oPts/TSA
16. Is there something that you look for to decide that you're ready to go all-in or that it's time to blow it up and begin the next phase of your team's life-cycle?
T: I usually have a 3-4 year plan in place to build a team that will last for a while, so if something goes horribly awry during that time I know I have to blow it up and start from scratch. When Willis Reed left unexpectedly in free agency after winning a championship, I knew I had to start over. I didn’t have the assets to build around Olden Polynice and Dave Lattin that would get me to the top, so I knew I had to cut ties with those guys sooner than I would have liked.
S: Going all in and blowing it up are 2 tough calls to make. Going all in for me is all about the moves you can make, I tried to reload a few seasons ago with Ellis and Majerle and really thought it was the right call. But those guys weren't the same players for me that they were on their former squad and it didn't work out. That's generally when you hit the low point and blowing it up becomes the plan. I can't say for sure what it is but you just know, you're teams starts losing games they shouldn't for multiple sims, SRS is going down steadily, those are the signs for me.
M: After my first title core, I was able to keep it going by selling offer pieces and then striking gold in FA. After my second title team I hung on too long and wasted resources I could have gotten future assets for. There is definitely a sweet spot to start selling players off for assets and its something I have yet to get a good handle on. When I know its time to compete is when I have significant cap and assets tied into a team. There is no sense wasting a bunch of time, money (cap) and draft picks on a team thats stuck in the middle
D: This is my biggest struggle as a GM. I’ve never REALLY blown it up or gone all-in. It’s probably why I continue to remain good, not great. I lack the guts to go for it.
J: The trick to winning titles is to either have the best player in the league and surround him well or consistently be among the teams with a 15% chance or better of the title and strike it lucky with a some variance in the playoffs. That’s why I consistently am trying to just be a conference finals team because then anything can happen. Once I feel that I’m not quite in that conference title window and my team is closer to being in the “aging” category I will start aggressively selling off my assets. As far as when to go all in, I’m always trying to win. But I’m trying to win titles once I find two guys that I feel are elite players.
Bonus Question
17. Aside from switching teams with Tim to get LeBron, which GM has a current roster/upcoming pick situation that you envy most in the league and would trade places with?
T: I guess Atlanta. I’m super hot for Michael Beasley and the versatility he can provide and Hibbert might be a nice piece depending on what that B inside grade is made up of. I like Hield as well as a complimentary piece, but I don’t think he’ll ever become a superstar with his lack of defense and likely low potential. The first pick this coming season and 1.2 in 2042 combined with Beasley are a pretty appealing group of assets.
S: I mean LeBron aside, Chicago's got a 1.1 and 2 1.3 over the next 3 drafts, not to mention a 1.6 and 1.7 next season. Outside of that, no one. I'll take what I've got.
M: This might be a shocking answer but I dont know if I would trade with anyone. There are a few teams that have a couple pieces I like but not a full package I would want to trade everything with.
D: Before he picked up some bad contracts/players, I would’ve said AndyLuck. I wish I had a clean cap sheet, all my picks (included a good one in 3 years), and the chance just to build a brand new team. Whenever I get the guys to go all-in, that’s what I will aim for… a completely clean sheet.
J: Ward. He’s not got a huge window with this current team considering Manning and Mitch are expiring and on the wrong side of 30 but he’ll continue to be good for awhile most likely with Lanier and Magic to build around. And he’s the most likely contender for a title this season outside of Chicago.
T: Timpig
S: Skrouse
M: Majic
D: Delap
J: JHB
Draft
1. What are your top 3 attributes you look for in a prospect?
T: This can vary quite a bit depending on where I’m picking and if I’m looking at profile or non-profile guys. For both, I’m staying far, far away from anyone who might have high turnovers. If I see a non-profile guy with passing as a strength then I’m out or a profile guy who “defers to his teammates” or something along those lines then I’m out. Other than that, I think what I prioritize most are a salvageable inside grade and an outside grade that’s at least a C-. I’m fine if someone doesn’t shoot 3s, but if they can’t make free throws then they’re probably not someone I want to get too close to. All of this can get thrown to the wind a bit if it’s the late first or early second round and I see a non-profile guy with potential as his strength. Those guys can always be worth taking the chance.
S: I have not scouted much so I usually don't have the actual attributes. But if we're just talking in general, it's potential, scoring and low turnovers. Those 3 are all weighted pretty high for me.
M: Scoring, defense and efficiency. Finding a prospect that has all 3 is extremely hard and rare. The key is find a player that can offer 2 of the 3. This where gauging the players weaknesses and how effective upgrades will be to improve. Most players need a little help, so finding someone that has a good base level in these 3 is key.
D: *disclaimer* Clearly I don’t always follow my rules, but this is my initial thinking, usually. Also, I’m good enough at this to always have a good team… but rarely a great one. Take everything I say with a heaping of salt. Clearly it’s positional, but generally I want to see the following in a major player: A high inside grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by strength, a high outside grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by 3pt, and a high handling grade that is unlikely to be over-powered by passing. If you are searching for low-shooting Bigs or Point Guards you would still want some of that, but you would also pay more attention to rebounding/defense… but that is for a specific role player. If you are looking for an all-around contributor, you want them to shoot efficiently and not turn the ball over, so the 3 attributes I listed are my go-tos.
J: 1. An elite skill. Do they have something that makes them unique? Whether it be blocks or rebounding or scoring, do they have a skill that will put them at the top 5% of the league in some metric. With Embiid and Shaq their scoring stats when they came out were both elite and their stats scouts showed shotblocking had some potential (even if that never truly developed for Shaq).
2. Outside of their elite skills, are they at least close to average at everything else? While having an elite skill is nice, do they do enough elsewhere to cover up for their shortcomings? For example, Jerry Lucas was an elite effiency and volume scorer but his defense was atrocious. I was okay with that for a time because he was also a solid rebounder and before he became the main focus of the offense his turnovers weren’t that bad. But at some point that hole puts a ceiling on your team and you have to trade him for a LaPhonso Ellis to win a title. A guy like Bradley Beal is an elite defender and while his offense has truly never been consistently spectacular, it isn’t a hole and makes him a well-rounded player outside of his elite skill (which is defense). The one hole that I will abide in an otherwise good player is having scoring in the 0.95-1.1 pts/tsa range for a C-SF (so long as their jumpshot isn’t broken) because that +25 inside upgrade could turn them into a star.
3. Potential
2. What's your strategy when picking in the top 3-5 versus later in the draft? Does your strategy change?
T: I wouldn’t say the strategy changes a great deal. I’m still looking for the same strengths and avoiding the same weaknesses. Of course, I’m much more willing to scout a guy if I’m picking in the top 3-5 than a second rounder so I can learn a lot more about their builds that way.
S: Top 3-5 pick is definitely a "don't fuck this up" strategy whereas later in the draft it's more hit or miss, so I tend to be less cautious. Much more willing to take a shot on a bust after pick 7 or 8, if there a chance he could blow up
M: For me I pay attention to the name and draft class recognition. Having a pick in the 3-5 range is great when its a deep, well known class. It gets alot harder when its a perceived "weaker" class and only has 1-2 stars. This where it becomes increasingly important to utilize scouting and get all the information you can. You can never spend too much to know you are drafting a top tier player, or know exactly what needs to be improved on a player. Get every piece of information you can.
D: If I’m picking in the Top 5 I want to be as sure as possible that I’m drafting a contributor and potential star. Scout at least stats, but maybe more, to make sure the player isn’t going to bust or have some unknown major flaw. Those picks only come around every so often so you can’t afford to be overly risky. Once I get later in the 1st Round I’m much more willing (and likely) to shoot for potential on boom/bust type guys. In the 2nd Round my strategy has been to shot-gun and just grab picks… a strategy that seems to have been adopted more frequently by others in recent years. Our Minor League teams are really underutilized by some franchises.
J: Top 3-5 I’m looking for attributes that will give me a player that can contribute immediately and potential is a bit secondary to that choice. Obviously if two players are close I’m going with upside and how their current attributes work within the framework of how we are able to upgrade players to be able to optimize what I’m working with. Outside the top 5 I’m potential hunting and hoping for lottery tickets. Once those players are gone I’ve traditionally looked for shot-blockers or high handling PGs. Shot blocking is a good skill to have and it usually comes with bigs who you can really do a lot with a +25 inside upgrade with and the PGs with high handling usually at worst could turn into a solid backup PG so long as they don’t have another major hole in their game.
3. Break down a pick you made from the most recent draft you participated in and tell us what was going through your mind as you made it.
T: I kind of picked Ajinca last draft but he’s now in Atlanta so I guess I’ll talk about Patrick Ewing Jr. He’s a 6’7 small forward, which means he’s shooting guard eligible and has no inside cap for upgrades. He started with B inside and inside as a strength, so if he can still receive +25 his scoring volume should be alright. The C rebounding isn’t super appealing if I were expecting him to play small forward, but it’d be pretty solid for a shooting guard. If his turnovers and jumper aren’t awful, he could be a solid backup SF and SG. Joe Alexander fit the same criteria but I honestly completely missed that he was still available.
S: 1.4 - DeAndre Jordan - But to get the whole story we have to start at the top of the draft.
Before grades came out Rose felt like the consensus #1, Beasley's scoring grades changed that. I was excited when I first saw his grades because I thought for sure he was an option, no way JHB would pass on Rose. So I started planning to try and move back up the draft from 1.9 to get Beasley a running mate, possibly Russ.
When JHB took Beasley, my whole strategy changed. Rose fell in my lap, pretty easy decision once I saw his full build. But I had also had a stats scout on Love which looked really good. So my mind immediately went to pairing Rose and Love. After I was unable to get Druce to move 1.3, I took Rose and began rereading the profiles and looking at the rest of the grades to see who I might want to try and trade back up for. I really liked Jordan's profile. Potential to be good at everything a big needs to be, but raw. His age really made a difference, being 19 and full of potential, he could take time to grow and still be young. And there really wasn't a wing worth trading back into the top 8 to get, but 19 yr Eric Gordon might just make it to 9.
So Druce takes Love and puts 1.4 on the block. I decide to text Druce to shift our convo about 1.3 to 1.4, however this time I was no longer willing to part with 1.9, I had to keep that to get Gordon. So we work out a deal he not only trades me for the rights to 1.4, but Druce also trades me the full build scout for Russ Westbrook. I had no intention of even considering Westbrook when I made the trade, but Druce said the scouts came with the pick so I asked for them, more info is always better right? Well, after seeing his full build I hesitated.
Rose and Westbrook weren't that far apart in key attributes, I actually kinda preferred Russ's build, but there was 1 key difference, Rose's potential. Which isn't necessarily a knock on Westbrook. So now I'm stuck, Russ looks really good, should I just take both PGs and ensure I get the best one? That move felt overly cautious and a waste of 1 of my 2 top 4 picks. I decided the right move was to scout Jordan and go from there. But I was low on bucks, and didn't want to hold up the draft to cash in my bank or trade for bucks. So I thought about playing either Russ or Rose at 2, but their builds weren't really right for that. And there was another 2 guard that I had my eye on.
I went with my gut in the end and pulled the trigger on the 19 yr old big man and fortunately Eric Gordon fell to me at 9. Now I just need a few solid TCs and the Magic are on their way back to the promise land.
M: Malik Beasley is someone I targeted in the draft and wanted once I was up at 7. I did a workout and he did well which only pushed me more to draft him. I took a page out of JHB's book and really got interested in him based on his potential as a strength. He was a 19 year old with high potential which means he gets a teen TC and hopefully continues to grow. The extra bonus was the fact I could add an inch and get him to 6'6.
D: I only had my 2nd round (and 3rd round) picks available in the most recent draft. I drafted George Hill in the late 2nd. My offense has been inside-focused for a bit and I expect it will still be with Bird/Issel entering their primes soon… I need a solid low-TO guard to grow with them. Hill’s grade-set looks like he won’t really shoot and that his handling is based on handles, not passing, so he’ll likely be a low TO guy. Given who was on the board at the time I think I made a decent pick… but who knows?
J: In the most recent draft, it was pretty simple. Grades came out and Beasley looked like the clear BPA. I full scouted him and also Rose so I would have additional intel to share that I could begin exchanging for the extra scouting info that other GMs had to see if there might be someone I wanted to trade back into the draft for. I did this the year before with Buddy Hield and it was highly successful. I immediately had my eye on DeAndre Jordan after my pick because of the upside designation in his profile and a decent set of starting grades. So I reached out to druce about a trade for 1.4 but clearly didn’t have the juice to get that done so I started trying to find an alternative to Jordan among the profile players. Hibbert also had some upside and shot-blocking and strength comments in his profile but an uglier starting gradeset with C rebounding so I figured I’d give that a shot if I could make a deal work. I had been after Kujo’s 1.1 because I think Garnett could be a Magic/LeBron level player and when that deal started to come together I pushed to also get 1.8 so I could pick up Hibbert as well. Finally, I had 1.11 and it came down to choosing between Ajinca and Dragic. I liked the idea of Dragic as a no shoot, don’t break it, play D PG and already had 2 upside bigs in Hibbert and POB in St. Louis so I went Dragic. Fortunately, I got a lucky break and Ajinca also made his way to Atlanta.
4. How do you value draft picks in trades?
T: I’m a huge fan of drafting and even more so now that scouting is available, so I love to accumulate draft picks. Of course, I’d rather have a great pick in the 2043 TMBSL Draft (1985 IRL Draft) but not all of us can be so lucky as to be GIFTED 1.1 and a future Hall of Famer by the wheel as Majic is, but I digress. Even in perceived bad drafts, I think there are always 3-4 really solid players to be had. If you pay attention, you can see how other people are valuing certain draft slots as the draft is proceeding, so if you don’t feel like you’re going to get the most out of your top pick you can send it for a similar pick in another year. With scouting and the ability to get the full build of a player, the value of draft picks has increased for me because the chance of picking a massive bust has significantly decreased.
S: Each pick is valued differently, with the wheel you've always got to look ahead and compare classes before trading a pick. So I try to use that spin value in my favor.
M: The exact location of the pick and the draft class are the 2 most important factors. No matter the class, if a 1.1 or 1.2 is involved its going to be in exchange for a proven star. Anytime a pick that falls between 3-7 the specific draft class becomes important. As I mentioned above, if one of those picks in a loaded draft then it will be worth more than a pick in a top heavy draft. Later round picks to me are treated as more thrown ins that actual value. There can be good-great players found later in the draft, its just a lot more random.
D: I’m a quantity over quality guy. I’d rather get two 1.4s than a 1.1, for example. Some of that is draft dependent, obviously, but given the successes of mid-to-late 1st round picks, more bites at the apple is a good thing. We have had more than a few 1.1 busts (even after they were scouted)… so more is better than just a high pick.
J: I try to think of it by comparing the pick to what I’d expect to get out of it. I'm looking for shots at the best players in the league when I get draft picks over having a bunch of good picks.
Multiple top 5 picks: Elite Players (LeBron, Majic, etc)
Top 1-5: 10+ WS guys
6-10: Solid role players
10+: Don’t care, can usually get these picks in trades during the draft for bucks so they are throwaways to me, trade filler to make someone feel nice
5. What things in prospects are immediately disqualifying if you see them in a build?
T: Turnovers.
S: High turnovers and overtly poor defense.
M: The easy answer here is anytime it mentions poor efficiency, but thats an easy one. The other thing I disqualify is if a player has very poor defense. In the league right now you need guys that can be at least somewhat effective on both ends of the floor. Spending draft capital on a player that is one dimensional is a waste.
D: High passing, low potential. Training Camps, which are the thing most out of our control, really make or break players… no matter how the commissioner builds them. By removing the mere opportunity for big improvement when a player has low potential can really just crush someone, even if they start out with a decent build. You can’t bank on a build being good enough without some TC love. High passing just tends to be a TO red-flag.
J: I hate high passing and/or poor handling, poor rebounding, broken jumpers (sub-60), and generally bad defense. I can get over one of these with elite skills elsewhere. When you start talking about multiple of these deficiencies it gets a little sketchy. Beasley is borderline here so I’m a bit worried about him and hoping his scoring eases all concerns.
Evaluating Players
6. What's your method for evaluating players that you intend to trade for or when scouting free agency?
T: When it comes to free agency, I’m looking for the Christian Laettner’s of the world - someone who has been undervalued but still has upgrades left and is capable of making an enormous leap. Solid FG% and FT% combined with low turnovers and I’m probably willing to take a chance on you. Trades are different because if you come for a player that isn’t on the block too hard, generally the current GM knows that you see something, so I’ll usually just stick with what’s posted in blocks and what people are looking for.
S: Per36 is the home base, I export that to excel and then look at certain ratios. Such as Bleals vs TOs. If you're sub 1 that's baaad m'kay? In order for me to even look at you, you gotta be good at everything else.
M: Everyone looks at a players stats so that goes without an explanation. Outside of that, I like to observe who the current GM is, and how that player is being used. There are a number of players around the league that are not being utilized correctly or ignored by the GM. Recognizing this can often times get you great value in exchange for the asset and/or cap space you are offering.
D: I always start with this question: What role are they filling and how do they fit around my best current players? If the answer is unclear, I tend to avoid them. I use the same basic principles as I do for drafting, but with stats it is easier: low TOs, high P/TSA for everyone… add in good per36 blocks, rebounds, and/or steals for guys who don’t shoot as well or that much. Evaluating the type of offense you are running compared to where they have been before is key as well. If they are coming from a different system, can you be sure that those skills they have will translate? Are they being goosed by an outside skillset when I run inside? Is that going to work out?
J: I’m hunting value. So I’m looking for guys who are good but their current GM has soured on them and there is some arbitrage opportunity (Rik Smits) or I’m looking for someone who might be a little restless and ready to compete and will give up a solid pick to get some players when I’m blowing it up (kujo and the 1.1). Another big thing I look for is players who seem to have it all but one thing you can mostly fix with upgrades (Chris Bosh, Paul Silas, etc).
In terms of actual player evaluations, I have a stat that I’ve made up called player value that measures each player’s win shares above the average for their position group (while also adjusting for the overall success of the team they are a member of), pts/tsa above the average for their position group, and their defensive counting stats (.5*steals+blocks) above the average for their position group. It then combines those three aspects and shoots out single number to evaluate players on. It’s a pretty good gauge IMO because if you just look at win shares it makes elite wings look like regular bigs, etc. Also I don’t think win shares gives enough credit to the elite defenders that drive the defensive success of elite defensive teams. If you're evaluating players based on points per game and field goal percentage at this point, you're an idiot and you're always going to be behind the teams using better metrics.
7. What are your main traits you look for in players?
T: High FG% and FT%, no turnovers, and, if they’re a big or small forward, decent rebounding. For the most part I don’t look a ton at defense. If a big can average even a block per-36 or a wing can average a steal per-36, that’s good enough for me and I’ll see how they fit the other criteria.
S: The basics, scoring, defense, low TOs. It really depends on team need, for example if our block numbers are low I'll try to add a guy like Clint Capela to my bench that has a good Bleal to TO ratio and decent rebounding numbers. Don't need a guy like that to score so as long as his attempts are low we'er good. But it varies, a vet like Jerry West in the twilight of his career but still scoring buckets can also add value off the bench.
M: This really mirrors my answer to question #1. I want players that are Efficient, play defense and can score. To be an elite team you need to have 2-3 guys that can do all 3 things, which is not easy to find. Additionally, its important to add complimentary pieces that fit with your top 2-3. These complimentary pieces wont be able to do all 3 phases at a high level, but can offer elite ability in 1 or maybe 2 of them.
D: Basically the same answer as last question. Do they fit the team dynamic I’m trying to build? Will they be an overall asset? I tend to be an optimist in life and in sim, so I generally take the rosiest view of what they could be on my team and believe that will happen. Clearly that bites me from time to time, but you have to able to see the best-case scenario for some role players as you are filling out the roster, otherwise everyone looks like garbage.
J: Shot-blocking, low turnovers, at least 70% from the FT line, good size, high strength for bigs, efficiency that is good enough to be great with a +25 inside upgrade.
8. What is an absolute turn-off for you in terms of things that will make a player untouchable for you?
T: Turnovers.
S: TOs are the big one for me, and applied evenly to pretty much all positions, keep TOs down and a lot tends to go right. The rest would vary by position. I'm not interested in bigs that can't rebound unless it's a Jerry Lucas situation. Don't want a SG/SF with a low P/TSA.
M: For me I think its better to break this down by positional group, as each position requires different skill sets: PG - high TO's are an absolute no to me. Wing - anytime that have bad efficiency or a combination of low rebounds/no defense. Bigs - anytime they have bad rebounding or a combination of no defense/no scoring.
D: Super high TOs for everyone, too much shooting at low efficiency for bigs. With the increased powers of bigs in the league, we have a subset that have enough inside/strength that their usage has skyrocketed, but the efficiency isn’t there. Those guys tend to take shots away from better players and you just can’t have that. I haven’t noticed the problem being as prevalent for wings/PGs, probably because of the caps we have… so I always pay attention to that (shot attempts, namely) for bigs that I’m looking at.
J: Turnovers and bad defense without multiple elite skills elsewhere.
Free Agency
9. How do you decide contract values you offer in FA?
T: This is admittedly the toughest part of sim league for me because it’s such a crapshoot and there are GMs out there who are always willing to overpay to accommodate their situation. If I’m building or rebuilding, I’m doing so through the draft and not committing long contracts except to max guys. The draft is what I focus on to build the core, and anything I get in free agency is generally considered a supplement or “nice to have.”
S: A balance between my cap space and the others with similar needs. My cap space tends to be key, I tend to offer deals that fit my situation, they don't always hit and you do lose guys like Conley and KAJ. But you also get guys on sweet deals like Cummings, Dame and Waiers. I will also look for MLE level guys and could fit on a lot of teams with limited cap, I'll always look to offer them just over MLE, like 5 or 6 mil to increase my chances.
M: This is probably one of the hardest things to gauge in the league right now for me and its because of a few factors. The league has had a solid rotation of 3-4 contending teams that are pretty locked in with their cap. On a yearly basis you can count on 3-4 teams have near max cap space and a hole or two to fill. Lastly, the recent FA classes have lacked the depth and/or star power. Given all of the above, I try to break down contract offers into 3 levels: Level 1 is your sure-fire max offers. Level 2 is any contract that falls in that 7-11 million range, Level 3 is your mid level contract players. Finding players that fall into Level 2 is key, as is determining their length. Anytime I have gone with a Level 2 type offer, I have tried to keep it to a shorter contract, unless I felt really good on the value. Another huge factor in offering deals is considering where the other teams Cap Situation is at. Knowing who you are bidding against can often times give you an advantage to either outbid them, or sign a guy on a below market deal.
D: If a guy isn’t worth a MAX, don’t MAX him. That’s the biggest rule. If someone isn’t worth a MAX, you probably need to go down several million to find their right value. While someone might be worth 10-11m… that is functionally the same as a MAX deal and will cause the same kind of cap problems. If you really need to pay someone around that price point, try to make it for fewer years if possible. You are probably better off going with an MLE or 5-6m player for a year and finding a stopgap (while maintaining flexibility) than paying that 10-11m player that amount for more than 3 years. I personally avoid deals longer than 3 years unless it is an absolute steal of a deal or a MAX. The goal should be to have flexibility and soft cap space every year unless you are a sure-fire contender.
J: My goal is to offer an amount that will make me feel extremely uncomfortable about retaining a player, that my offer may be beat unless I just have extra space that I don’t have anything to do with it. For example, I only offered Larry Wright around MLE-level when he was up for renewal because I thought any more than that would be prohibitive with Armond Hill also resigning and him playing better at the time. I try to make sure that if I am giving out a max to a player not currently on my team that it’s a deal I’ll still feel strong about in 3-4 years or a player that is at least pretty well renowned around the league and can be flipped.
10. Go back to a deal you made in a recent free agency for a non-exception, non-resign, or non-max player and walk us through how you landed on the bid you'd offer and why. Were there other players you were targeting with similar deals and why?
T: The last time I can remember signing a big but non-max FA was Rick Barry like eight or nine seasons ago. He was a guy who had shown scoring promise but hadn’t been upgraded. I was willing to make a big offer because his contract wouldn’t have interfered with the ability to re-sign any of my upcoming high draft picks and I wasn’t going to have soft cap room without him anyway. I was in a position where any cap space I had for the foreseeable future (it’s now been like 12 seasons and counting) was going to be occupied by re-signed players coming off of rookie contracts. I actually just went back to the PMs and changed my Day 1 offer for Barry four times (sorry eric) - going from $6.5 x 1 to $6.5 x 3 to $8.5 x 3 to $12.5 x 5, which is where I ended after I realized having him for five years wouldn’t hamper me.
S: Nothing comes to mind that is a non-exception, non-resign, or non-max player, I guess maybe Horford. He was a guy I thought would be easy to move so I offered him a 10 mil deal so it was manageable. Figured he may go for close to a 1 year max but those deals can be tough to move to a contender. Most contenders can make a deal for a 10 mil contract without a major overhaul.
M: Dion Waiters and Roy Hamilton are really the only 2 guys I have signed in the last several years and both were done using the same approach: 1 year max offer. These offers provide a high upside with little to no risk. If the player plays great, I stand a high chance at resigning them. If they end up being terrible, or not worth the money I can cut bait after 1 year.
D: I just signed Billy Ray Bates for 3 years, 10m. I offered the same deal to Tiny Archibald. I was looking for a young (room to grow) PG who would have low TOs and basically facilitate and not shoot. I offered an amount that would likely get them to sign, but wouldn’t hamstring me for the future if they don’t work out.
J: This year I signed Alex English to a 6 year, 6 mil, 0% deal. I thought of it as an insurance policy in case one of Beasley or Hield doesn’t work out and at worst it’s a deal for an elite third wing for the entirety of the contract and I can live with paying that to have guaranteed elite production there.
11. What is your FA strategy when you are over the soft cap and can only use exceptions and mins?
T: If I’m contending immediately I’m looking for a third or fourth wing or third or fourth big. Those always come in handy in case of injury or in case you see a deal on the table for your 2nd or 3rd big/wing. If someone is desperate for a 2nd or 3rd big, maybe I can send them mine for a mid to late first and not really miss a beat using that exception as their replacement. Now I’ve provided some insurance for the future while not sacrificing anything in the present.
S: Throw as many exception and min offers as I can and see what happens. It's much simpler than having soft cap and trying to make deals being offered fit together if you're hoping to get multiple players.
M: This is similar to what I mentioned above but I like to find guys that were either buried on the the Depth Chart or were just neglected/forgotten by their GM. I believe that there are a few players around the league that are stuck, getting no playing time but could be very useful in a rotation. Its not easy to find them but with our new extension rule it can be very rewarding if you do.
D: Mass signing. Stockpiling isn’t a bad thing, even if you never intend on playing someone. We have thin enough reserves of players, especially on the wing and at PG, that you can really hamper other teams by holding onto players on your bench that you can sign during FA late with MINs. The recent extension rule also allows you to take more chances on developmental players with MIN deals, as you can go ahead and extend them if they work out… before that I would only go after proven commodities with those types of contracts.
J: First and foremost I’m looking to fill needs. Hopefully if I’m over the soft cap I’ve at least got my starting lineup locked in and most of my depth. If I need a third big or wing or a backup PG I’m prioritizing those needs into which 2 positions have the most dire need for an upgrade and then I’m making all my MLEs to the most pressing need then LLEs to the second most pressing need. If most of my needs are filled, I’m looking for the hidden gems. The players with everything but one thing I can fix with an upgrade who are currently overlooked. Typically 26 and under. Get them on an exception where I can extend them if the upgrade works out and they turn into the player I think they can be.
Trading
12. How do you break down value in a trade when comparing something like a player to a future pick or even bucks where there is not so much of an advanced stat comparison to be able to judge fair value?
T: I hate trading any of my high picks, so this is really hard to answer. It’s not often the cap situation works out where I can trade a high pick straight up for an established stud. I haven’t had a lot of $9-$-10m bird year contracts to match and make a trade like that feasible in a long time. If I think I can get a solid player in the top 5 (I pretty much always think I can), then I probably don’t want to swap that and the value of a four-year rookie contract for a stud that someone else is trying to get rid of for a reason. When it comes to trading one of my players for a future pick, it often has more to do with my upcoming cap situation than it does anything else. Freeing up said cap space to retain key pieces can be the biggest value when evaluating trade opportunities.
S: It's tough, it again can be circumstantial. Near the beginning of a rebuild you tend to have less picks and limited assets to move. So I am always looking for volume and high quality. For example moving Terry Cummings for just 1 pick was tough, even though it was a 1.2. Felt like I wasn't getting enough in that deal. Once you've stockpiled picks and you're clearing out the roster it gets easier to take a late 1st or a couple 2nds for guys that may only be playing 15 - 20 mins a game. Trading from a contenders position can be completely different, where you may have less assets you're willing to move and a tighter cap.
M: Eric has talked about this many times, but finding a deal where both GM's are getting an asset that matches their current "plan" is key. Its important to find assets that match your plan. For instance, right now I am trying to contend and push for a title, so proven players are far more important to me than draft picks. In the recent trade I madewith Druce, we had opposite approaches, he wanted picks/future assets and I wanted the proven player. Both of us got what we wanted and came away with important value.
D: Teams have differing motivations. GMs struggle, myself included, when they don’t stay on the same path for long enough. No single trade is going to erase seasons and seasons of erratic strategy or poor planning. Fair value is tricky, but as I said earlier, multiple picks impress me more than 1.1s (typically). The bucks don’t impress me, but if you can extract multiple (3 or more picks) from someone, I typically think you did well.
J: I kind of broke down how I value draft picks in trades earlier. To me bucks are meaningless because currency isn’t real and can be generated really easily unless I have an immediate pressing need for liquidity.
13. How do you prefer to engage in trades? Do you have a methodology for targeting trade partners?
T: I’m usually sticking to blocks that are posted or posting those that are my own. I’ll usually get text inquiries and know off the bat if the person is serious or not. If I go outside of a block, it’s usually to snag a rental from a non-contender for a late pick or bucks. There are multiple GMs I’m less inclined to engage in serious negotiations with because doing so is like pulling teeth.
S: No real methodology, usually based on team need. Don't care what team it is, if they have something I need/want, I ask them if they're willing to move it, then gauge their response and go from there.
M: When attempting to trade for a player, I generally try to stick around the edges and approach trades with teams that are in the middle/bottom of the league. I will also focus on team that are starting a rebuild or have a cap crunch. I generally leave the other contenders alone as its unlikely they would want to trade, and even if they did it would require 110% value.
D: Text, best offers up front. I will trade with almost anyone, seeking a mutually beneficial trade. The people who struggle to get trades done are trying to win a trade by making you lose one… instead of a mutual benefit. I can think of two trades recently with TimPig that have worked out really well for each of us, with me netting Dan Issel (after his 1st year) and ‘Nique on a value contract and him getting the best Bosh year on record and a few 1st round picks. He clearly has done fine with winning, and I’ve set my team up for success in the coming seasons.
J: I mentioned this earlier but I am hunting people who have needs I can fill and may have some arbitrage opportunity on an asset that I value more than they do. For example going to Delap and picking up Rik Smits because he’d soured on him and then using him as a key piece in a trade to sell kujo on the idea of using his 1.1 to fill out his entire roster rather than getting just one good player at 1.1 where there is still some risk. I only use trade blocks if I just don’t see any trades on the market and am looking for a hail mary.
Teambuilding Strategy
14. Do you have a brand or an ethos that you shoot for in building a team? Are you looking for hard-nosed grit and grind defense or splash-brother style shooting?
T: Inside, inside, inside. Can a player be good with a high inside grade and average outside grade? Definitely. Can a player be good with an average inside grade and high outside grade? Maybe, but it’s certainly much less likely. Rebounds are secondary for me. I’m willing to have one sub-par rebounder start for me, but probably not more than that. Obviously turnovers are a no-go for me, so if someone has high turnovers the rest of this doesn’t matter. When it comes to defense, averaging a steal per game if you’re a wing or a block per game as a big is probably good enough.
S: I am open to any style, you've gotta stay flexible and run the system that fits the best talent you're able to acquire. I prefer a fast paced, outside focus because 3s are greater than 2s, but you can't always get the right pieces for that.
M: I have had several contending teams and each seemed to have a different "brand" or style to them. My first title team was built around a core with an elite PG, elite SF and an elite PF that scored. My second title team was very different in that it was built around a dominant big rotation and then high efficiency every where else. My current team is probably a mix between both styles that I have had. This is all just a long way of saying no, I dont have 1 set way I like to build a team. I simply try to aquire the talent then add in the complimentary pieces around them to try and push me over the top.
D: You have to match the skills of your best player(s) and be able to build around them. Like the Durant outside/inside discussion in Shout! Yesterday, some players thrive in different systems. While I had Kyrie I ran an outside offense because it would be silly not to. I tried to surround him with good outside shooting and no-shoot D/R bigs so he could get as much usage as possible. Now that my best scorers are wings/bigs I go inside all the way and need bigs that shoot efficiently and guards that will feed them the ball. Don’t put square pegs in round holes.
J: First and foremost I want to play defense. My best teams have all done that. Jonas, Olden, Kawhi, Jax, and God were all good defenders. Embiid, Ellis, Worthy, and Beal were all good defenders. After that I’m looking to score efficiently while not sacrificing rebounding. The teams in the middle that featured Shaq and Jerry Lucas were consistently good because my offense was elite but they just didn’t have the juice on defense. I honestly thought Shaq would be a much better defender and if he was he’d still probably be a Hawk. My second team was not as successful IMO because while they scored at an elite level, the rebounding just wasn’t there because I didn’t have anyone that came close to the rebounding I got out of Jonas and Olden.
15. What advanced metrics do you track to gauge the success of your team?
T: I don’t look at the advanced team stats too much except to understand where I’m lacking if my team is really struggling, or see what I’m near the top in if my team is excelling. It’s pretty easy with our Team Stats to see where I sit with regards to rebounding percentage, assist-turnover ratio, pts/tsa, etc. If I’m struggling and one of those is low, I know what to fix.
S: Not many, I really a lot Yearly Statistics to make sure my team's hitting certain marks. SRS is really the one I value the most.
M: I pretty much rely on the stats and information that eric posts and are available. I like to check the advanced stats posted every sim as well as the Team stats. I find the team stats to be something I look at to determine if there is a particular area I am weak at. WS also play a big role as it can help determine player and system value.
D: P/TSA, Rebound %, Total Shot Blocking, TOs. I don’t remember what the real 4 factors are… but those 4 are the ones I pay the most attention to. To be fair, 2 of those aren’t advanced… but whatever.
J: My strategy is simple. Get more possessions than the other team and use them as well as possible. So you need to focus on turnovers, rebounding percentage, and Pts/tsa and oPts/TSA
16. Is there something that you look for to decide that you're ready to go all-in or that it's time to blow it up and begin the next phase of your team's life-cycle?
T: I usually have a 3-4 year plan in place to build a team that will last for a while, so if something goes horribly awry during that time I know I have to blow it up and start from scratch. When Willis Reed left unexpectedly in free agency after winning a championship, I knew I had to start over. I didn’t have the assets to build around Olden Polynice and Dave Lattin that would get me to the top, so I knew I had to cut ties with those guys sooner than I would have liked.
S: Going all in and blowing it up are 2 tough calls to make. Going all in for me is all about the moves you can make, I tried to reload a few seasons ago with Ellis and Majerle and really thought it was the right call. But those guys weren't the same players for me that they were on their former squad and it didn't work out. That's generally when you hit the low point and blowing it up becomes the plan. I can't say for sure what it is but you just know, you're teams starts losing games they shouldn't for multiple sims, SRS is going down steadily, those are the signs for me.
M: After my first title core, I was able to keep it going by selling offer pieces and then striking gold in FA. After my second title team I hung on too long and wasted resources I could have gotten future assets for. There is definitely a sweet spot to start selling players off for assets and its something I have yet to get a good handle on. When I know its time to compete is when I have significant cap and assets tied into a team. There is no sense wasting a bunch of time, money (cap) and draft picks on a team thats stuck in the middle
D: This is my biggest struggle as a GM. I’ve never REALLY blown it up or gone all-in. It’s probably why I continue to remain good, not great. I lack the guts to go for it.
J: The trick to winning titles is to either have the best player in the league and surround him well or consistently be among the teams with a 15% chance or better of the title and strike it lucky with a some variance in the playoffs. That’s why I consistently am trying to just be a conference finals team because then anything can happen. Once I feel that I’m not quite in that conference title window and my team is closer to being in the “aging” category I will start aggressively selling off my assets. As far as when to go all in, I’m always trying to win. But I’m trying to win titles once I find two guys that I feel are elite players.
Bonus Question
17. Aside from switching teams with Tim to get LeBron, which GM has a current roster/upcoming pick situation that you envy most in the league and would trade places with?
T: I guess Atlanta. I’m super hot for Michael Beasley and the versatility he can provide and Hibbert might be a nice piece depending on what that B inside grade is made up of. I like Hield as well as a complimentary piece, but I don’t think he’ll ever become a superstar with his lack of defense and likely low potential. The first pick this coming season and 1.2 in 2042 combined with Beasley are a pretty appealing group of assets.
S: I mean LeBron aside, Chicago's got a 1.1 and 2 1.3 over the next 3 drafts, not to mention a 1.6 and 1.7 next season. Outside of that, no one. I'll take what I've got.
M: This might be a shocking answer but I dont know if I would trade with anyone. There are a few teams that have a couple pieces I like but not a full package I would want to trade everything with.
D: Before he picked up some bad contracts/players, I would’ve said AndyLuck. I wish I had a clean cap sheet, all my picks (included a good one in 3 years), and the chance just to build a brand new team. Whenever I get the guys to go all-in, that’s what I will aim for… a completely clean sheet.
J: Ward. He’s not got a huge window with this current team considering Manning and Mitch are expiring and on the wrong side of 30 but he’ll continue to be good for awhile most likely with Lanier and Magic to build around. And he’s the most likely contender for a title this season outside of Chicago.
