Post by TimPig on Mar 11, 2020 22:59:34 GMT
Biggest Offseason Makeovers
1. Tri-Cities Blackhawks - Don’t look now folks, but BK has a stew going and the predictable self-destruction sequence has not yet been commenced, leading this reporter to wonder if perhaps he might hold on long enough to at least use his two 1.1s he has coming up rather than trade them for “granola”. Adrian Dantley looks like a stud, at least on the offensive end, and I’m with BK in that I think Bill Laimbeer will actually be a darn good player once he receives his offseason camp and +25. I don’t love the Fat Lever signing, but I don’t hate it and the dollar value is small enough that it shouldn’t be crippling in any way. Jerry West will be the biggest factor in this team seeing major improvement compared to last season, even if he’s gone after day 60. I don’t see him getting the return BK expects because his one-year contract is so high and not many contending teams will have the $17,000,000 to send in return to match salaries. Regardless, looking at the rotation this team should put forth this season - some combination of Gasol/Laimbeer/Dantley/West/Kidd with Eaton, Havlicek, and Lever as backups should be good for a few wins.
2. Orlando Magic - This team will see a big change as well, but not in a good way like the Blackhawks. First and foremost, they lost their top scorer and second-best Pts/TSA guy in Jerry West and look like they’ll be running out one of Walt Williams, Latrell Sprewell, or Eddie Jones in his place. Combine the loss of a major contributor with a pretty rough TC that saw LaPhonso Ellis go -2 and this team should drop in the standings. Terry Cummings returns on a team-friendly contract, though he’s not my favorite big with pretty weak defense and rebounding and only slightly above average scoring.
3. Oakland Oaks - This team surprisingly went 41-41 last season, finishing in a three-way tie for the 9th seed and just a couple of games out of the playoffs. Most of their success came on the shoulders of a few forgotten bigs who have never really been given an opportunity to excel - Glen Davis, Emeka Okafor, Draymond Green, and Shawnelle Scott. The wing and point guard play was...not great. This year, they return two of those four bigs in Scott and Okafor, though losing Davis in particular will hurt. They shored up the wings very nicely, however, signing a solid contributor in Josh Howard to a team-friendly two-year deal and drafting a stud in Austin Carr who looks like he could be another Sam Jones. Devin Harris should be an upgrade over Otis Birdsong at point guard. If Kujo cared, he’d start accumulating bucks and assets to surround Carr and eventual 1.1 Kevin Garnett with.
Teams Employing Strategies I don’t Understand
1. Charlotte Hornets - Fecta seems to be back kind of, setting DCs and occasionally posting in Shout without needing to be texted multiple times. He does not, however, appear to have returned with a bang. He’s engaged in a total rebuild that seems to be highlighted by a 1.2 in 2035 (Reggie Theus?) and the most recent first round point guard he selected (out of three straight) in Calvin Murphy, who looks nothing like a sure bet at this point. He almost had something going with the lucky snag of Kevin Durant in free agency but he didn’t seem all too interested in trying to build around him. He had a cool $17,000,000+ in cap space left over at the end of free agency, which seemingly could’ve been used on...something? I don’t see a player on this roster who looks like a sure bet or any really enticing draft picks coming up.
2. Portland Trail Blazers - Majic is admittedly and understandably worried about the coming offseason, where he’ll likely have some tough decisions to make as Bill Cartwright, Sidney Moncrief, and James Donaldson are all sure to command major pay raises. I’m not sure how many, if any, of those three he feels are maxable players, but he’s expressed an interest to retain all three, which tells me he’s going to be expecting to fork some money over for them. Add in Jared Sullinger’s $9,000,000 contract that can’t be bought out because a buyout was used on Taurean Green last season (a buyout that according to Majic will have absolutely no adverse effect on his roster construction), and there’s a good chance he doesn’t have max space this offseason unless he lets one of the expiring rookie contracts go. It seems that this would’ve indicated that the past offseason was Portland’s chance to add some players to build around those three, but all he did was add veterans on one-year deals. He expressed excitement after signing Glen Davis, but that deal is for one year only and means there’s zero guarantee he returns next year. The same goes for Bernard King. Two offseasons from now, Dante Exum will be due a raise if Majic likes him. After that, it’ll be Alex English. His high draft picks were spent on Bill Cartwright, and I don’t see a path to soft cap space without losing some talent, so I’m not sure what the plan is here.
3. New Orleans Pelicans - John Lucas is turning out to look really nice and Spencer Haywood looks decent after preseason with +25 still available, though his profile write-up indicates limited potential. Aaron Gordon is still a toss-up as a player with some enticing grades but questionable performance to date. At this point, I’m not sure anything can be expected out of Nikola Jokic, so I think Lucas, Haywood, and Gordon are the three youngsters worth building around. But then you have a couple of oddly placed veterans in Jerry Lucas and Glenn Robinson who will be eating their soft cap space for the next couple of years. I guess I don’t understand if this is a team trying to compete today (as Jerry Lucas and Robinson would indicate) or building for the future (as John Lucas, Haywood, and Gordon would point to). I don’t know what sort of interest Jerry Lucas or Robinson drew last season, so maybe he has some deals waiting in the wings to flip those two players for assets to build around a good point guard on a rookie deal, which could put him in a really good place. As things currently stand, it looks like the Pels are half in and half out on a rebuild.
Most Exciting Rookies
1. Austin Carr - I’m very intrigued by Carr’s grades and preseason, which showed that he can score both inside and outside and isn’t afraid to put up shots. I compared him to Sam Jones earlier, which I think makes sense from a scoring, rebounding, and defense perspective, but his turnovers look better. He still has +25 left in upgrades that could be applied in a variety of ways since he already looks like a very good inside and outside scorer. A +10 jumping camp will also increase what is already pretty good volume. Rebounding looks like maybe the most unfortunate of his flaws, and I don’t think you want to upgrade rebounding for a shooting guard, but +25 strength is probably the move here as it’ll supplement his scoring and give that rebounding and defense a slight boost as well.
2. Julius Erving - Erving averaged 20.8 points and 11.5 (!!!) rebounds per-36 during the preseason. The volume is there, but based on his paltry 1.03 Pts/TSA, a good chunk of his A inside grade is likely made up of athletic attributes, so investing as much as possible into inside looks like the obvious choice. If he can put up something like 25/10 with decent efficiency after upgrades, he could easily become the second best wing in the league. He went +2 in training camp and still has A shown potential, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some natural growth in the defensive categories at the very least. Even if the defense doesn’t improve, he’ll be a force scoring and on the glass right off the bat.
3. Dan Issel - Obviously I’m selfishly interested in Issel, who should be good right off the bat after scouting his build. Add to that a training camp that saw him go +2 in inside and rebounding and I’m very excited to add him to the fold. However, I’d be lying if I said his preseason wasn’t a bit of a disappointment, highlighted by a measly 1.03 Pts/TSA. I’m 99% sure the preseason was just a fluke as scoring should be the one thing he is absolutely excellent at. That said, I’ll be paying close attention to him as the season goes on to make sure he doesn’t have some weird #heavyreign build where low quickness or something stupid like that totally ****s him.
Projected All-League First Team
Center: Bill Cartwright - Last year Dwight Howard won this award, and I think he’d probably do it again this season, but as of this writing Kn has not set a DC and him doing so is no guarantee. The other centers to make All-League teams last year were Bill Russell and Cartwright. Russell is now 35 and went -3 in TC across inside, defense, and rebounding, the latter two which have been his calling card his entire career. I don’t love Cartwright as much as some other GMs do, but the center position is not as deep these days as it once was and he’s an efficient scorer who went +1 outside during TC, perhaps leading to a bump in FT% this year. If Shaq can have a rebound year, I could see him earning this spot, but a down season last year followed by a meh preseason do not have me very hopeful.
HM: Dwight Howard, Bill Russell, Joel Embiid, Shaquille O'Neal, Rik Smits
Power Forward: Jerry Lucas - Jerry Lucas has won this award for five seasons straight and it’s really tough to pick against him winning it again, especially playing for a Pelicans team where he’s once again the likely focal point and the only big-time scorer they have. Other names that crossed my mind included Al Horford but he’s not even a starter in Harlem to begin the season; LaPhonso Ellis but he went -2 in TC; Danny Manning but he’s never made an All-League team before and won’t be a focal point in Harlem; and Anthony Davis but he’ll be in an outside offense that likely won’t maximize his numbers.
HM: Al Horford, LaPhonso Ellis, Danny Manning, Anthony Davis
Small Forward: LeBron James - This is the only reasonable choice here and he should be a top candidate to win his fourth straight MVP award. Kevin Durant seems like a distant second, though Julius Erving could one day be in the conversation, assuming Mike upgrades him and he doesn’t have a totally bad time in TC.
HM: Kevin Durant, Dominique Wilkins, Julius Erving
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal - Somehow this dude has never won first team All-League and was somehow beaten out by Jerry West last year, probably because West gets a lot of assists for a shooting guard and is a good scorer. But Beal is a much, much better defender and arguably the best wing defender in the league, which he pairs with very good scoring ability. The software may continue to favor someone like West, but I don’t think there’s a GM out there who would take him over Beal.
HM: Jerry West, Pete Maravich, Sidney Moncrief, Austin Carr
Point Guard: Magic Johnson - This one feels as obvious as the small forward choice, as Magic continues to get better and is arguably the second best MVP candidate in the league. Mike Conley is a bit of a dark horse, especially if he’s carrying more of the offensive load following Jerry West’s departure in Orlando. Oscar Robertson would need a major rebound and probably the best season of his career to match the ascending Johnson, whose competition for points in Harlem may be the biggest thing working against him.
HM: Mike Conley, Oscar Robertson, John Lucas
