Post by TimPig on Feb 26, 2020 0:03:12 GMT
Random Rankings
Rookies I’m most excited about in each of the next five drafts
1. 2034: Julius Erving - Mike made it clear pretty much the day his wheel position was announced that he was going to take Dr. J with the first overall choice. This will be the next exciting career to die in Detroit following players like Michael Jordan, Shawn Kemp, and Bill Russell. Dr. J was a great player back in the day and the fact that Eric ranks him as a top-10 player of all-time should make this a no-brainer pick at 1.1. I usually favor players with high starting inside (e.g. Dr. J) over players whose outside may be much higher than their inside (e.g. Pistol Pete). Add in what should be some elite rebounding from Erving - “the best rebounding wing to enter the league in years” according to his profile - and you should have a real foundational piece, despite the lack of defense. If only there were other assets surrounding him…
2. 2035: Larry Bird - Larry Legend is locked into becoming a Maverick and looks to be a high-volume scorer on day one. He should come in with great scoring grades, high strength, good steals, and excellent rebounding ability. Based on those skills, he has the write-up to be the best scorer we’ve ever seen. Turnovers could be an issue, but I can’t imagine them being high enough to prevent him from becoming one of the best ever. His one other profile knock - lack of jumping ability - can be at least partially remedied quickly with an offseason camp.
3. 2037: Ben Simmons - Assuming the Hawks hold on to this pick, this team is going to be a force to be reckoned with after Simmons joins a team that should still have prime Shaq, Embiid, Bosh, Worthy, and Beal on their roster. Salaries can muck things up, but assuming JHB can figure it all out, he has the potential to add a 6’10 point guard to a team that already thrives running an inside offense. Tons of intrigue here as Simmons is known to be in Eric’s doghouse, but the profile shows a player who should be a triple-double machine. He looks like an easy candidate for +25 jumper as his inside will likely be at or near the cap for point guards anyway. He probably comes into the league with a 0 3-point attribute, but he can still be a darn good player in an inside offense.
4. 2038: Derrick Rose - I strongly considered Michael Beasley here because he was such an outstanding player in college and, depending on his position, his college abilities might translate extraordinarily well to sim league. But I went with Rose because he was an NBA MVP who’s going to have tons of questions. He doesn’t have a profile written yet, but from what I can see on DraftExpress, I’m guessing a player with high jumping and quickness attributes, medium strength, high inside (for a point guard), a decent jumper, almost no three-point shot, and no defense. There’s a good chance his turnovers are high as his usage should also be pretty high, but with a couple of decent TCs he looks like he could be a high-volume scorer in an inside-focused offense. I’m not sure he can be a perfect sim league prospect without some miracle TCs, but there aren’t a lot of great point guards out there and the ceiling should be high on him.
5. 2036: Andrea Bargnani - Super interesting profile for the Italian big man, who seems like he should come in with very strong scoring grades - potentially in the A- B range - but won’t do much else. His write-up indicates strong athletic attributes, a great jumper, good three-point shooting, and the ability to put the ball on the floor and score inside. His defense will certainly be a liability, but if he’s scoring the way his profile indicates, we might have another Jerry Lucas on our hands.
Assets that need to be traded
1. Bill Russell - He’s probably held this spot for the past 10 years or so, but once again, Bill Russell needs to be traded. At this point he’s probably not commanding the haul he did just a couple of years ago, but if Mike were willing to trade him, he should be able to get at least one very good pick and another couple of mid-first picks as well. When Dr. J enters the fold next season, Russell will be 35 years old. A 22-year-old future stud and an aging 35-year-old is not a recipe for success. If a savvy GM with a few bucks to spare is somehow able to pry Bill away from Mike, he can send him to Germany and get at least a couple more good seasons out of him. Retirement seems unlikely as he has three more years after this one on his contract.
2. Bill Cartwright - Fecta has been actively shopping Cartwright for about one and a half sims now as he continues his full rebuild. Cartwright, while young and still on a rookie contract, might make sense to move as he might be someone who can get Fecta a couple of firsts to go along with all of the picks he just got from Druce. Cartwright’s scoring volume and rebounding are nice, but his defense is nothing to write home about. Plenty of offense-only bigs have flourished in the right system and there’s no reason to think Cartwright can’t do the same.
3. Josh Howard - While he’s off to a slow start this season, Howard should be an attractive trade option once Day 60 rolls around and he’s eligible to be moved. It likely doesn’t take much more than bucks or a late first to add him, and he’s a starting caliber wing at either small forward or shooting guard on a good team. He’s consistently shot over .500 from the field and can definitely be a 20/7 type guy who doesn’t turn it over and gets about 1.5 bleals per game.
4. Nate Thurmond - Thurmond is 31, meaning he doesn’t fit at all into the Trail Blazers’ contention window. Sidney Moncrief is 24, Alex English is 22, James Donaldson is 24, and Dante Exum is 20. I don’t hate that core if there can be some TC development, but Thurmond and Grant Hill should both be attractive assets to a contending team. If Majic can snag a draft pick or a prospect in exchange for either player, he should jump on the opportunity to build around his core.
5. Kyrie Irving - With Dallas in full rebuild mode, it’ll be interesting to see if Kyrie sticks around. He’s making $18,000,000 this year and next, so the money will be hard to move, but if someone can figure it out, he can still definitely be a starting point guard on a contending team. He doesn’t have a place on a rebuilding squad like Dallas, but in a league short on good point guards, he’s an attractive option.
Best Sim Leaguers of All-Time
1. Kyrie Irving - He won eight MVP awards in the span of 11 seasons and his career per-36 numbers are unreal: 29.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.3 steals, just 1.4 turnovers, and 1.17 pts/TSA. He’s over 50 win shares above second place on this list and is only adding to that lead. Kyrie already holds a substantial lead in career three-pointers made and assists and has a good chance to pass Bulls great Miles Bridges for the all-time scoring crown. He somehow only won one title during his career, but the individual accolades can’t be beat.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - I think we sometimes forget how incredible Kareem was since he too only won one title early in his career with the Lakers. He didn’t have any holes in his game - fantastic efficiency, high volume, great rebounding, tons of blocked shots, solid free-throw shooting, and no turnovers. His career per-36 numbers of 30.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, and 1.24 pts/TSA (best of all-time) are all remarkable. Even in his final season, he shot 57% from the field while averaging 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game.
3. LeBron James - It’s still early, but LeBron is definitely in the conversation for one of the best all time. At just 24 years old, he already has more titles than Kyrie and Kareem combined and is averaging about 30/10/6 for his career on 1.21 pts/TSA to go along with 2.6 bleals and 2.2 turnovers. The turnovers are the only area of concern, but those have come down a bit since he moved to power forward, even with increased usage. He looks like he may even still be getting better as his three-point shooting and defensive numbers continue to improve.
4. Firsto Picko - Sometimes I forget about how good Firsto Picko was, perhaps because we were in a deeper league and there were more good players to go around. Firsto was almost as good as Kareem in every category except for rebounding, where his 9.8 fall well shy of Kareem’s 12.5. He put up 32 points per 36, 3.4 bleals, and 1.18 pts/TSA in his 12 seasons. He also won two championships in a more competitive league across a shorter time period, really putting Kyrie and Kareem to shame.
5. Bill Russell - Tons of names could go at spots four and five, but Bill’s defense sets him apart from any other sim league player we’ve had. His offense has been only slightly above average - 1.10 pts/TSA for his career - but his 4.8 bleals per-36 are remarkable and the best numbers of all time. He’s also an elite rebounder (13.9 per 36) and doesn’t turn the ball over.
Random Thankings
1. A heartfelt “thank you” from Muzunga to Druce - First, we look at one of the recent blockbusters from the perspective of the Hornets.
Last season, the Hornets went 44-38, finishing one game behind the Pistons and Trail Blazers for the eighth and final playoff seed. Hovering right around the hard cap, they had no contracts worth more than $2,450,000 coming off the books, and that contract belonged to Mitch Richmond, who the team surely planned to re-sign. With big money tied up in Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and Zarko Cabarkapa, Mitch’s re-sign approaching, and Bill Cartwright just a few years away from a big payday himself, the Hornets had no real feasible means with which to move from ninth seed to contender. Their next best draft pick in the coming five seasons currently sits at 1.6 in 2037 after they traded their valuable 1.5 pick in 2034 to Harlem for the aforementioned Davis.
So Fecta went and cut a big deal with Druce, sending Durant and Davis to the Grizzlies for five draft picks and a couple of expiring contracts who are certainly not building blocks. Two of those picks - 1.7 in 2034 and 1.2 in 2035 - are sure to be quite valuable. They also shed over $36,000,000 in salary heading into the next free agency period, leaving them room for two maxes this offseason before Cartwright needs to be re-signed. The upcoming free agent class includes names like Dwight Howard, Nate Thurmond, Darko Milicic, Juwan Howard, Josh Howard, Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, Glenn Robinson, Jerry West, and numerous other contributors. Potentially a max-worthy player or two, but definitely several complimentary pieces who could look really nice next to Cartwright and whoever he ends up drafting with the two big picks he acquired.
2. Skrouse to his best friend and favorite GM TimPig - All of the sudden, the Orlando Magic are contenders again. Multiple GMs - myself included - thought the time was right for a Magic rebuild following the retirements of future Hall of Famers Tracy McGrady and Wilt Chamberlain. In fairness to those GMs, the idea of adding two mid-20s all-star caliber players seemed unlikely.
The Magic made two big trades to acquire LaPhonso Ellis from Dallas and Dan Majerle from Oakland. For this exercise, we’re going to take a closer look at the Ellis deal.
As soon as Delap posted his trade block stating that all Mavericks were available, TimPig texted him just three minutes later inquiring about Ellis, offering his 1.3 in 2035. GM Delap was very intrigued by the thought of having the first and third pick in the same draft, but Pig’s offer was bested by the Magic, who eventually ended up sending 1.3 in 2037, former 1.3 Robert Parish, and some other garbage to Dallas to secure Ellis’ services.
As the receipts show, Delap was willing to allow Chicago to best Orlando’s offer, but it would have come at the expense of his 1.3 and Jabari Parker - two of Chicago’s best young cost-controlled assets.
Ultimately trade negotiations did not move forward with Chicago, and the Magic now find themselves contenders again.
“You’re welcome” in advance, Skrouse.
3. A “thank you” letter should be in the mail from Atlanta to our nation’s capital - It would seem inappropriate for jhb to send kn88 a “thank you” digitally, whether by PM or comment on the board, as Kn would never see it and never know of the Atlanta GM’s appreciation.
Chris Bosh had long been discussed as a player in need of only +25 inside to become a solid contributor. The defensive numbers have always been impressive, turnovers relatively low for a big, and the jump shot outstanding. After the expiration of his rookie deal, he signed an MLE with Chicago but was traded to Oakland for an instant contributor in Marcus Camby. His MLE was not extended and he then signed a one year, $3,000,000 deal with New Orleans where he played 19 minutes per game and piqued plenty of interest.
This past offseason, Bosh was offered at least one MLE that this author is aware of (his own), but likely at least a couple of others. No offer came close to what the Bullets (via the Hawks) were asked to offer - $54,000,000 over six years. Bosh was then flipped to Atlanta for 1.4 in 2038 and 20,000 bucks.
Overall, it was not an unfair price to pay, but it did allow the Hawks to add a potentially very solid contributor on a long-term contract immediately via unorthodox methods. It’s funny that a GM who had not set a depth chart in two seasons was able to sign a player and then trade him to a contender immediately with nary a complaint from others, especially the same GMs - skrouse 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 wee2dee Mike Majic - who bitched about a trade between two other GMs that amounted to nothing more than a half-season rental. Funny how that works, isn’t it?
Random Spankings
1. Druce gets SEVEN big spankings, one for each draft pick he sent to Charlotte, and two for taking on two max contracts - Now let’s look at this trade from the other side.
The Grizzlies added two players on max contracts in Durant and Davis. Those two contracts will leave them over the soft cap next season as their roster currently stands. Even if we remove all players on rookie contracts who could potentially be sent down, they’re left with just under $3,000,000 in soft cap space - certainly not enough room to add a difference-maker.
They won’t be able to get better through the draft as they just dealt all of their next five first round picks, so that method of team building doesn’t work.
Durant and Davis were unable to make the playoffs in Charlotte when accompanied by Mitch Richmond and Bill Cartwright, but perhaps pairing those two with *checks notes* Christian Laettner, Acie Law, and a competent depth chart will be enough to bring a championship up north.
We’ve argued ad nauseum about what kind of player Durant can be. I can see him becoming a 25/7 type of player with average defense. Fine. That’s good. Probably max-worthy with the lack of wings currently in the league, even though with his height his positional flexibility is limited.
How about Anthony Davis? For his career, his per-36 numbers are:
Points: 22.7
Rebounds: 10.7
Steals: 1.8
Blocks: 0.8
Turnovers: 2.4
Pts/TSA: 1.17
Since we started tracking win shares in our new format (one year after Davis’ rookie year), his win share rankings among players listed as bigs are as follows: t-8th, 9th, t-4th, t-10th, 9th. One year in the top five BIGS while playing for a very good Harlem team.
But OK, win shares can be a bit flawed and favor players on good teams, so let’s look at some other stats. Across Davis’ entire career, he’s ranked in the top 10 in points per game one time (2030; 8th) and cracked the top 10 in Pts/TSA one time (2031; 4th). He’s gotten a good amount of steals, ranking in the top 10 three times. He’s also ranked in the top 10 for turnovers per game three times. He averaged one block per game during one of his first seven seasons and is definitely done growing after eight training camps.
In all, his steals and turnovers are above average for a big. Points and rebounds are pretty average. His contract, however, is max.
2. Delap gets TWO spankings - one for throwing in the towel and one for violating a gentleman’s agreement - Last season, the Mavericks finished with the third-best record in the league behind Atlanta and Chicago. This was after trading their starting small forward, James Worthy, to the Hawks in exchange for a future draft pick. On that third-place team, they also had one of the best scorers the league has ever seen in Jerry Lucas, an aging version of the best player the league has ever seen in Kyrie Irving, an elite big in LaPhonso Ellis, and talented players surrounding that group in Bernard King, Rik Smits, John Havlicek, and Bob Cousy.
I guess getting bounced by the Blackhawks in the first round two years in a row can cause you to think twice about everything, which is exactly what Delap did when he started the firesale. Gone since yesterday are Ellis and (apparently) Rik Smits. Jerry Lucas was traded for Marcus Smart and a pick (more on that below), leaving the cupboard in Dallas pretty bare. They do have a number of draft picks coming up, but this is a team that could’ve been contending for a championship with some combination of LaPhonso Ellis - Jerry Lucas - James Worth - Bernard King - Kyrie Irving with Smits, Havlicek, and Cousy coming off the bench. Pop a solid MLE on top of all of that and this team had a real chance to contend. Swap a backup like Smits and a future pick or two for upgrades and you wherever you feel you need them most and you could have had a real stew going.
As for Jerry Lucas, more receipts below. Not much to add here except that I was told I had until FA Day 4 to make a decision and the trade of Lucas to New Orleans was consummated after Day 1 if my memory serves me correctly. Tsk tsk, user Delap.
3. BK gets a pre-emptive spanking for not following through on his current rebuilding plan - So far, so good in the Tri-Cities...it can’t last long though, can it? As things currently stand, the Blackhawks have the first overall pick in 2036 (LaMarcus Aldridge?) and 2038 (Derrick Rose?). They have the fourth picks in 2036 and 2037 and should be able to get four starting-caliber players and potentially a couple of all-stars out of those three drafts.
They have a couple of different rookie salaries on the books that they can be flexible with, so the only salary commitment they really have is Anthony Mason for some reason, but even he’ll only be getting $2,000,000 per year for the next six years, so a buyout is possible. If BK stays on track, he’ll have space to add multiple max contract players in addition to all of his high draft picks and might be in the best position he’s ever found himself since his tenure in TMBSL began.
But can he stay the course? He’s never proven himself capable of following a plan, whether that’s contracting his team with David Robinson and Tim Duncan on rookie contracts or paying Allen Iverson $10,000,000 per season on a long-term deal.
This spanking is certainly pre-emptive, but I reserve the right to expand it to more than one for every bad long-term contract or traded draft pick that Billy hands out.
Rookies I’m most excited about in each of the next five drafts
1. 2034: Julius Erving - Mike made it clear pretty much the day his wheel position was announced that he was going to take Dr. J with the first overall choice. This will be the next exciting career to die in Detroit following players like Michael Jordan, Shawn Kemp, and Bill Russell. Dr. J was a great player back in the day and the fact that Eric ranks him as a top-10 player of all-time should make this a no-brainer pick at 1.1. I usually favor players with high starting inside (e.g. Dr. J) over players whose outside may be much higher than their inside (e.g. Pistol Pete). Add in what should be some elite rebounding from Erving - “the best rebounding wing to enter the league in years” according to his profile - and you should have a real foundational piece, despite the lack of defense. If only there were other assets surrounding him…
2. 2035: Larry Bird - Larry Legend is locked into becoming a Maverick and looks to be a high-volume scorer on day one. He should come in with great scoring grades, high strength, good steals, and excellent rebounding ability. Based on those skills, he has the write-up to be the best scorer we’ve ever seen. Turnovers could be an issue, but I can’t imagine them being high enough to prevent him from becoming one of the best ever. His one other profile knock - lack of jumping ability - can be at least partially remedied quickly with an offseason camp.
3. 2037: Ben Simmons - Assuming the Hawks hold on to this pick, this team is going to be a force to be reckoned with after Simmons joins a team that should still have prime Shaq, Embiid, Bosh, Worthy, and Beal on their roster. Salaries can muck things up, but assuming JHB can figure it all out, he has the potential to add a 6’10 point guard to a team that already thrives running an inside offense. Tons of intrigue here as Simmons is known to be in Eric’s doghouse, but the profile shows a player who should be a triple-double machine. He looks like an easy candidate for +25 jumper as his inside will likely be at or near the cap for point guards anyway. He probably comes into the league with a 0 3-point attribute, but he can still be a darn good player in an inside offense.
4. 2038: Derrick Rose - I strongly considered Michael Beasley here because he was such an outstanding player in college and, depending on his position, his college abilities might translate extraordinarily well to sim league. But I went with Rose because he was an NBA MVP who’s going to have tons of questions. He doesn’t have a profile written yet, but from what I can see on DraftExpress, I’m guessing a player with high jumping and quickness attributes, medium strength, high inside (for a point guard), a decent jumper, almost no three-point shot, and no defense. There’s a good chance his turnovers are high as his usage should also be pretty high, but with a couple of decent TCs he looks like he could be a high-volume scorer in an inside-focused offense. I’m not sure he can be a perfect sim league prospect without some miracle TCs, but there aren’t a lot of great point guards out there and the ceiling should be high on him.
5. 2036: Andrea Bargnani - Super interesting profile for the Italian big man, who seems like he should come in with very strong scoring grades - potentially in the A- B range - but won’t do much else. His write-up indicates strong athletic attributes, a great jumper, good three-point shooting, and the ability to put the ball on the floor and score inside. His defense will certainly be a liability, but if he’s scoring the way his profile indicates, we might have another Jerry Lucas on our hands.
Assets that need to be traded
1. Bill Russell - He’s probably held this spot for the past 10 years or so, but once again, Bill Russell needs to be traded. At this point he’s probably not commanding the haul he did just a couple of years ago, but if Mike were willing to trade him, he should be able to get at least one very good pick and another couple of mid-first picks as well. When Dr. J enters the fold next season, Russell will be 35 years old. A 22-year-old future stud and an aging 35-year-old is not a recipe for success. If a savvy GM with a few bucks to spare is somehow able to pry Bill away from Mike, he can send him to Germany and get at least a couple more good seasons out of him. Retirement seems unlikely as he has three more years after this one on his contract.
2. Bill Cartwright - Fecta has been actively shopping Cartwright for about one and a half sims now as he continues his full rebuild. Cartwright, while young and still on a rookie contract, might make sense to move as he might be someone who can get Fecta a couple of firsts to go along with all of the picks he just got from Druce. Cartwright’s scoring volume and rebounding are nice, but his defense is nothing to write home about. Plenty of offense-only bigs have flourished in the right system and there’s no reason to think Cartwright can’t do the same.
3. Josh Howard - While he’s off to a slow start this season, Howard should be an attractive trade option once Day 60 rolls around and he’s eligible to be moved. It likely doesn’t take much more than bucks or a late first to add him, and he’s a starting caliber wing at either small forward or shooting guard on a good team. He’s consistently shot over .500 from the field and can definitely be a 20/7 type guy who doesn’t turn it over and gets about 1.5 bleals per game.
4. Nate Thurmond - Thurmond is 31, meaning he doesn’t fit at all into the Trail Blazers’ contention window. Sidney Moncrief is 24, Alex English is 22, James Donaldson is 24, and Dante Exum is 20. I don’t hate that core if there can be some TC development, but Thurmond and Grant Hill should both be attractive assets to a contending team. If Majic can snag a draft pick or a prospect in exchange for either player, he should jump on the opportunity to build around his core.
5. Kyrie Irving - With Dallas in full rebuild mode, it’ll be interesting to see if Kyrie sticks around. He’s making $18,000,000 this year and next, so the money will be hard to move, but if someone can figure it out, he can still definitely be a starting point guard on a contending team. He doesn’t have a place on a rebuilding squad like Dallas, but in a league short on good point guards, he’s an attractive option.
Best Sim Leaguers of All-Time
1. Kyrie Irving - He won eight MVP awards in the span of 11 seasons and his career per-36 numbers are unreal: 29.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.3 steals, just 1.4 turnovers, and 1.17 pts/TSA. He’s over 50 win shares above second place on this list and is only adding to that lead. Kyrie already holds a substantial lead in career three-pointers made and assists and has a good chance to pass Bulls great Miles Bridges for the all-time scoring crown. He somehow only won one title during his career, but the individual accolades can’t be beat.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - I think we sometimes forget how incredible Kareem was since he too only won one title early in his career with the Lakers. He didn’t have any holes in his game - fantastic efficiency, high volume, great rebounding, tons of blocked shots, solid free-throw shooting, and no turnovers. His career per-36 numbers of 30.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, and 1.24 pts/TSA (best of all-time) are all remarkable. Even in his final season, he shot 57% from the field while averaging 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game.
3. LeBron James - It’s still early, but LeBron is definitely in the conversation for one of the best all time. At just 24 years old, he already has more titles than Kyrie and Kareem combined and is averaging about 30/10/6 for his career on 1.21 pts/TSA to go along with 2.6 bleals and 2.2 turnovers. The turnovers are the only area of concern, but those have come down a bit since he moved to power forward, even with increased usage. He looks like he may even still be getting better as his three-point shooting and defensive numbers continue to improve.
4. Firsto Picko - Sometimes I forget about how good Firsto Picko was, perhaps because we were in a deeper league and there were more good players to go around. Firsto was almost as good as Kareem in every category except for rebounding, where his 9.8 fall well shy of Kareem’s 12.5. He put up 32 points per 36, 3.4 bleals, and 1.18 pts/TSA in his 12 seasons. He also won two championships in a more competitive league across a shorter time period, really putting Kyrie and Kareem to shame.
5. Bill Russell - Tons of names could go at spots four and five, but Bill’s defense sets him apart from any other sim league player we’ve had. His offense has been only slightly above average - 1.10 pts/TSA for his career - but his 4.8 bleals per-36 are remarkable and the best numbers of all time. He’s also an elite rebounder (13.9 per 36) and doesn’t turn the ball over.
Random Thankings
1. A heartfelt “thank you” from Muzunga to Druce - First, we look at one of the recent blockbusters from the perspective of the Hornets.
Last season, the Hornets went 44-38, finishing one game behind the Pistons and Trail Blazers for the eighth and final playoff seed. Hovering right around the hard cap, they had no contracts worth more than $2,450,000 coming off the books, and that contract belonged to Mitch Richmond, who the team surely planned to re-sign. With big money tied up in Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and Zarko Cabarkapa, Mitch’s re-sign approaching, and Bill Cartwright just a few years away from a big payday himself, the Hornets had no real feasible means with which to move from ninth seed to contender. Their next best draft pick in the coming five seasons currently sits at 1.6 in 2037 after they traded their valuable 1.5 pick in 2034 to Harlem for the aforementioned Davis.
So Fecta went and cut a big deal with Druce, sending Durant and Davis to the Grizzlies for five draft picks and a couple of expiring contracts who are certainly not building blocks. Two of those picks - 1.7 in 2034 and 1.2 in 2035 - are sure to be quite valuable. They also shed over $36,000,000 in salary heading into the next free agency period, leaving them room for two maxes this offseason before Cartwright needs to be re-signed. The upcoming free agent class includes names like Dwight Howard, Nate Thurmond, Darko Milicic, Juwan Howard, Josh Howard, Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, Glenn Robinson, Jerry West, and numerous other contributors. Potentially a max-worthy player or two, but definitely several complimentary pieces who could look really nice next to Cartwright and whoever he ends up drafting with the two big picks he acquired.
2. Skrouse to his best friend and favorite GM TimPig - All of the sudden, the Orlando Magic are contenders again. Multiple GMs - myself included - thought the time was right for a Magic rebuild following the retirements of future Hall of Famers Tracy McGrady and Wilt Chamberlain. In fairness to those GMs, the idea of adding two mid-20s all-star caliber players seemed unlikely.
The Magic made two big trades to acquire LaPhonso Ellis from Dallas and Dan Majerle from Oakland. For this exercise, we’re going to take a closer look at the Ellis deal.
As soon as Delap posted his trade block stating that all Mavericks were available, TimPig texted him just three minutes later inquiring about Ellis, offering his 1.3 in 2035. GM Delap was very intrigued by the thought of having the first and third pick in the same draft, but Pig’s offer was bested by the Magic, who eventually ended up sending 1.3 in 2037, former 1.3 Robert Parish, and some other garbage to Dallas to secure Ellis’ services.
As the receipts show, Delap was willing to allow Chicago to best Orlando’s offer, but it would have come at the expense of his 1.3 and Jabari Parker - two of Chicago’s best young cost-controlled assets.
Ultimately trade negotiations did not move forward with Chicago, and the Magic now find themselves contenders again.
“You’re welcome” in advance, Skrouse.
3. A “thank you” letter should be in the mail from Atlanta to our nation’s capital - It would seem inappropriate for jhb to send kn88 a “thank you” digitally, whether by PM or comment on the board, as Kn would never see it and never know of the Atlanta GM’s appreciation.
Chris Bosh had long been discussed as a player in need of only +25 inside to become a solid contributor. The defensive numbers have always been impressive, turnovers relatively low for a big, and the jump shot outstanding. After the expiration of his rookie deal, he signed an MLE with Chicago but was traded to Oakland for an instant contributor in Marcus Camby. His MLE was not extended and he then signed a one year, $3,000,000 deal with New Orleans where he played 19 minutes per game and piqued plenty of interest.
This past offseason, Bosh was offered at least one MLE that this author is aware of (his own), but likely at least a couple of others. No offer came close to what the Bullets (via the Hawks) were asked to offer - $54,000,000 over six years. Bosh was then flipped to Atlanta for 1.4 in 2038 and 20,000 bucks.
Overall, it was not an unfair price to pay, but it did allow the Hawks to add a potentially very solid contributor on a long-term contract immediately via unorthodox methods. It’s funny that a GM who had not set a depth chart in two seasons was able to sign a player and then trade him to a contender immediately with nary a complaint from others, especially the same GMs - skrouse 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 wee2dee Mike Majic - who bitched about a trade between two other GMs that amounted to nothing more than a half-season rental. Funny how that works, isn’t it?
Random Spankings
1. Druce gets SEVEN big spankings, one for each draft pick he sent to Charlotte, and two for taking on two max contracts - Now let’s look at this trade from the other side.
The Grizzlies added two players on max contracts in Durant and Davis. Those two contracts will leave them over the soft cap next season as their roster currently stands. Even if we remove all players on rookie contracts who could potentially be sent down, they’re left with just under $3,000,000 in soft cap space - certainly not enough room to add a difference-maker.
They won’t be able to get better through the draft as they just dealt all of their next five first round picks, so that method of team building doesn’t work.
Durant and Davis were unable to make the playoffs in Charlotte when accompanied by Mitch Richmond and Bill Cartwright, but perhaps pairing those two with *checks notes* Christian Laettner, Acie Law, and a competent depth chart will be enough to bring a championship up north.
We’ve argued ad nauseum about what kind of player Durant can be. I can see him becoming a 25/7 type of player with average defense. Fine. That’s good. Probably max-worthy with the lack of wings currently in the league, even though with his height his positional flexibility is limited.
How about Anthony Davis? For his career, his per-36 numbers are:
Points: 22.7
Rebounds: 10.7
Steals: 1.8
Blocks: 0.8
Turnovers: 2.4
Pts/TSA: 1.17
Since we started tracking win shares in our new format (one year after Davis’ rookie year), his win share rankings among players listed as bigs are as follows: t-8th, 9th, t-4th, t-10th, 9th. One year in the top five BIGS while playing for a very good Harlem team.
But OK, win shares can be a bit flawed and favor players on good teams, so let’s look at some other stats. Across Davis’ entire career, he’s ranked in the top 10 in points per game one time (2030; 8th) and cracked the top 10 in Pts/TSA one time (2031; 4th). He’s gotten a good amount of steals, ranking in the top 10 three times. He’s also ranked in the top 10 for turnovers per game three times. He averaged one block per game during one of his first seven seasons and is definitely done growing after eight training camps.
In all, his steals and turnovers are above average for a big. Points and rebounds are pretty average. His contract, however, is max.
2. Delap gets TWO spankings - one for throwing in the towel and one for violating a gentleman’s agreement - Last season, the Mavericks finished with the third-best record in the league behind Atlanta and Chicago. This was after trading their starting small forward, James Worthy, to the Hawks in exchange for a future draft pick. On that third-place team, they also had one of the best scorers the league has ever seen in Jerry Lucas, an aging version of the best player the league has ever seen in Kyrie Irving, an elite big in LaPhonso Ellis, and talented players surrounding that group in Bernard King, Rik Smits, John Havlicek, and Bob Cousy.
I guess getting bounced by the Blackhawks in the first round two years in a row can cause you to think twice about everything, which is exactly what Delap did when he started the firesale. Gone since yesterday are Ellis and (apparently) Rik Smits. Jerry Lucas was traded for Marcus Smart and a pick (more on that below), leaving the cupboard in Dallas pretty bare. They do have a number of draft picks coming up, but this is a team that could’ve been contending for a championship with some combination of LaPhonso Ellis - Jerry Lucas - James Worth - Bernard King - Kyrie Irving with Smits, Havlicek, and Cousy coming off the bench. Pop a solid MLE on top of all of that and this team had a real chance to contend. Swap a backup like Smits and a future pick or two for upgrades and you wherever you feel you need them most and you could have had a real stew going.
As for Jerry Lucas, more receipts below. Not much to add here except that I was told I had until FA Day 4 to make a decision and the trade of Lucas to New Orleans was consummated after Day 1 if my memory serves me correctly. Tsk tsk, user Delap.
3. BK gets a pre-emptive spanking for not following through on his current rebuilding plan - So far, so good in the Tri-Cities...it can’t last long though, can it? As things currently stand, the Blackhawks have the first overall pick in 2036 (LaMarcus Aldridge?) and 2038 (Derrick Rose?). They have the fourth picks in 2036 and 2037 and should be able to get four starting-caliber players and potentially a couple of all-stars out of those three drafts.
They have a couple of different rookie salaries on the books that they can be flexible with, so the only salary commitment they really have is Anthony Mason for some reason, but even he’ll only be getting $2,000,000 per year for the next six years, so a buyout is possible. If BK stays on track, he’ll have space to add multiple max contract players in addition to all of his high draft picks and might be in the best position he’s ever found himself since his tenure in TMBSL began.
But can he stay the course? He’s never proven himself capable of following a plan, whether that’s contracting his team with David Robinson and Tim Duncan on rookie contracts or paying Allen Iverson $10,000,000 per season on a long-term deal.
This spanking is certainly pre-emptive, but I reserve the right to expand it to more than one for every bad long-term contract or traded draft pick that Billy hands out.
