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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 17:52:24 GMT
Based on my research there is a decently large disparity in the average picks of franchises over both a 10 and 25 year period. I've attached a screen shot including this data. My proposition is beginning with the 2038 draft a new wheel is adopted with only 18 slots, slotting everyone in where there pick would be in 2038 with the current wheel while leaving slots 1,7,13,18 open. Leaving these open slots should give room for expansion as well as evenly distributed open slots given wheel position. Attachments:
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 17:53:04 GMT
Just click the attachment to enlarge. Also credit to JHB for allowing me to use his spreadsheet.
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Post by Majic on Feb 24, 2020 18:00:30 GMT
I think this is pretty simple:
Option 1: larger wheel which we will never fill that creates a large range of pick variance (current system, which the graph above proves the unfairness)
Option 2: smaller wheel that also allows for expansion but reduces the chance of pick variance
I vote we work on putting together a smaller wheel that allows for some additional growth but reduces the variance.
I personally dont see a scenario where we ever get past more than 16-18 GM's in the league again and this would be my preferred range.
Even with that I tihnk a 20 slot wheel would be perfect. Allows room for 6 more GM's to enter while sitll reducing the chance for high pick variance. If, somehow, we got past the 20 GM limit we could discuss reworking the system to accommodate. I think if we are approaching that mane GM's it would be a good problem to have.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 18:13:39 GMT
blackhawks have one of the best 25 year averages
bulls and globes have one of the worst
none of this matters
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 18:21:01 GMT
18 slot wheel for reference Attachments:
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Post by skrouse on Feb 24, 2020 18:23:35 GMT
I like the modified wheel
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 18:23:40 GMT
1 18 7 6 14 11 2 17 8 5 15 10 3 16 9 4 13 12
^ wheel order used in 18 slot for reference. you'll notice 1,7,13,18 are open in year 1 (2038) and expansion teams could slot into one of those spots
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Post by eric on Feb 24, 2020 18:25:12 GMT
if we accept the premise that variation on the order of a couple draft slots is untenable, we must also realize that variation on that level occurs when we do expansion or contraction, which means the only tenable wheel would be the exact number of teams in the league, but even then expansion and contraction will still occur, and for example if we did 14 teams -> 15 teams -> back to 14 teams we wouldn't even be able to use the same 14 team wheel
such a system would be very cumbersome both for me to run and for GMs to keep track of
the question then is whether we accept the level of variation in the present wheel, accept both the existence of and policing of tanking that any lottery generates, or experiment with a new distribution system entirely
i do think we should experiment with rookie FA at the end of 5.0 - once the last human class is announced, every following class will be software only and distributed by rookie FA. if it works, we can use it to start 6.0. if it doesn't, at least we tried
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Post by eric on Feb 24, 2020 18:29:53 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle
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Post by TimPig on Feb 24, 2020 18:33:32 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle This is almost a net positive because it means there's one less thing for Bill to complain about. He would have to go all in on Delap's profile sabotage theory. |
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 18:34:06 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle and just to illustrate with the current wheel over the next 25 years the hawks have 5 #1s while I only have 1. The averages in the proposed wheel are worlds better than the current and present no additional work. 4 open slots is plenty of room for expansion |
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 18:37:15 GMT
Poll added
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Post by TimPig on Feb 24, 2020 18:37:47 GMT
I am fine with the 18-team wheel and would vote "yes" on it. It's really hard to see more than four teams expanding, and even so, I bet we'd sooner see 1-2 teams contract. Without having done the analysis that either Druce or Eric have, it seems like this shouldn't be a ton more work (no more than a 29-team wheel would require).
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 18:38:19 GMT
I am fine with the 18-team wheel and would vote "yes" on it. It's really hard to see more than four teams expanding, and even so, I bet we'd sooner see 1-2 teams contract. Without having done the analysis that either Druce or Eric have, it seems like this shouldn't be a ton more work (no more than a 29-team wheel would require). It wouldn't be any additional work |
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Post by Majic on Feb 24, 2020 18:39:40 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle I think saying "no breathing room" is a bit of a stretch. It leaves room for 4 additional GM's which would be massive growth considering thats the same amount of GM's we have added since contraction happened a long time ago. As I stated in my above post. if this is a serious concern for you and others, then we cna adjust it up to 20. anything that lessons the amount from the current system. |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Feb 24, 2020 18:40:17 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle This is almost a net positive because it means there's one less thing for Bill to complain about. He would have to go all in on Delap's profile sabotage theory. net positive
go all in on Delap's profile sabotage theory
No thank you.
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Post by TimPig on Feb 24, 2020 18:53:19 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle I think saying "no breathing room" is a bit of a stretch. It leaves room for 4 additional GM's which would be massive growth considering thats the same amount of GM's we have added since contraction happened a long time ago. As I stated in my above post. if this is a serious concern for you and others, then we cna adjust it up to 20. anything that lessons the amount from the current system. I am curious why you are convinced that an 18- or 20-team wheel is satisfactory all of the sudden? Your contention as far as I can tell for weeks has had nothing to do with the "fairness" of average draft position and has had more to do with "don't reward good teams." Changing the wheel from 29 teams to 18 teams won't make it so very good teams don't strategize to build around when they have good picks. And it won't make it so that bad teams/GMs can suddenly make ice cream out of their poop sandwiches. |
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Post by eric on Feb 24, 2020 18:53:39 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle and just to illustrate with the current wheel over the next 25 years the hawks have 5 #1s while I only have 1. The averages in the proposed wheel are worlds better than the current and present no additional work. 4 open slots is plenty of room for expansion the peak to peak average pick difference over a 30 year sample goes from 2.4 to 1.4 switching from 30 to 18 slot wheels. if literally one pick is "worlds better" then any expansion or contraction is a world shaking experience for half the league under any wheel system, but nobody thinks that, so nobody should think an 18 slot wheel would make that much of a difference i don't think we're going to have 5 expansion teams tomorrow, but why give ourselves that constraint at all when we get so little out of it? |
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Post by eric on Feb 24, 2020 19:00:01 GMT
and just to illustrate, in the proposed 18 slot wheel which leaves almost no breathing room for expansion, the blackhawks get three 1.1s when nine other teams only get one. we set ourselves up for a big problem and barely moved the needle I think saying "no breathing room" is a bit of a stretch. It leaves room for 4 additional GM's which would be massive growth considering thats the same amount of GM's we have added since contraction happened a long time ago. As I stated in my above post. if this is a serious concern for you and others, then we cna adjust it up to 20. anything that lessons the amount from the current system. i didn't say no breathing room, i said almost no breathing room because the differences are so small even between 30 and 18, there's no guarantee 20 would lessen the pick variation at all, let alone when factoring in expansion and contraction |
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Post by Majic on Feb 24, 2020 19:12:41 GMT
I think saying "no breathing room" is a bit of a stretch. It leaves room for 4 additional GM's which would be massive growth considering thats the same amount of GM's we have added since contraction happened a long time ago. As I stated in my above post. if this is a serious concern for you and others, then we cna adjust it up to 20. anything that lessons the amount from the current system. I am curious why you are convinced that an 18- or 20-team wheel is satisfactory all of the sudden? Your contention as far as I can tell for weeks has had nothing to do with the "fairness" of average draft position and has had more to do with "don't reward good teams." Changing the wheel from 29 teams to 18 teams won't make it so very good teams don't strategize to build around when they have good picks. And it won't make it so that bad teams/GMs can suddenly make ice cream out of their poop sandwiches. There are 2 different topics that you are referring to. I inherently do not like wheel as the draft slot decider and would prefer a more traditional draft model. I would be happy to discuss this separately. Since the current topic is not a discussion of ditching the wheel then I have a separate opinion. My argument is based solely on fairness and the fact we have an easy way to fix it. One team have 5 first overall picks compared to another team having 1 is pretty unfair and absurd. We have already shown we can pretty easily create a new, more fair wheel that benefits everyone and also leaves room for additional growth. Makes no sense in my opinion why we wouldnt look to introduce a new wheel. |
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Post by Druce on Feb 24, 2020 19:24:25 GMT
16 year averages: Attachments:
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Post by eric on Feb 24, 2020 19:26:12 GMT
I am curious why you are convinced that an 18- or 20-team wheel is satisfactory all of the sudden? Your contention as far as I can tell for weeks has had nothing to do with the "fairness" of average draft position and has had more to do with "don't reward good teams." Changing the wheel from 29 teams to 18 teams won't make it so very good teams don't strategize to build around when they have good picks. And it won't make it so that bad teams/GMs can suddenly make ice cream out of their poop sandwiches. There are 2 different topics that you are referring to. I inherently do not like wheel as the draft slot decider and would prefer a more traditional draft model. I would be happy to discuss this separately. Since the current topic is not a discussion of ditching the wheel then I have a separate opinion. My argument is based solely on fairness and the fact we have an easy way to fix it. One team have 5 first overall picks compared to another team having 1 is pretty unfair and absurd. We have already shown we can pretty easily create a new, more fair wheel that benefits everyone and also leaves room for additional growth. Makes no sense in my opinion why we wouldnt look to introduce a new wheel. this came up in shout now, but as it happens we have 16 human drafts left when we use the 30 slot wheel the peak to peak variation is 1.9, when we use the 18 slot it's 1.8 so the main contention i have is that it is NOT a fact the 18 slot wheel will fix anything, that it'll be more fair in any meaningful sense |
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