2031 Draft and Free Agency Randomish Rankings plus gifs that don't really add anything to the inhere
Jan 29, 2020 21:11:48 GMT
Post by jhb on Jan 29, 2020 21:11:48 GMT
Best Remaining Draft Prospects
1. Andrew Wiggins B+ C- D+ C+ C A
I've gone back and forth on this one. His jumping is probably maxed and his strength is probably incredibly high but with B+ inside I'm pretty sure the worst his inside scoring grade can be is 42. So if strength is high but not quite maxed, with a +25 upgrade to inside and the right camps and good TCs he could get to or surpass an A grade for inside as a wing. He's 19 and while his potential may be questionable, there may be some fuckery built into his C- outside grade, he might not ever be more than an average rebounder, and his defensive attributes may be built to not have him get counting stats...I still think it may be worth the risk for the upside. Send it!
2. Jabari Parker B C C- C C+ A
I have a thing for teenagers in this game. The idea of the big potential jump and a couple of huge TCs is really tantalizing. And Parker is a prospect who, according to Eric, the software version of the draft had go above Joel Embiid. So maybe there's something here that's worth taking a shot on. At worst he should be able to be developed into an incredibly efficient scorer and could become the next generation's Jerry Lucas.
3. Julius Randle B C- C+ C C+ B
See above. Another 19 year old who should have bully strength and be able to develop into a good interior scorer. Randle has had a tendency to be a beast in different iterations of TMBSL even though his game wouldn't seem to potentially translate well.
4. Dante Exum C+ C B B- D+ A
Full disclosure: I want to trade back into this draft to get a PG and I originally was targeting Marcus Smart. HOWEVER, the more I look at the combine results where Smart puts up big strength AND jumping numbers (to go with a B- inside grade doesn't bode well for his scoring efficiency) and the idea of having a 6'7" PG (Disclaimer: yes I saw he also had a huge jumping combine) who may have high potential and get some really good TCs seems a little more tantalizing. Both should put up defensive counting stats based on their profiles. I keep going back and forth but right now the coin toss is landing on Exum more than Smart.
5. Marcus Smart B- C B- B+ C- B
Like I said, this is really 4A and 4B for me. I think Marcus could fit on the right team where he isn't relied upon to play offense and just let his defense shine but it will also depend on him not being a turnover machine. Hopefully he turns into the perfect inside offense PG who just does a good job of adding possessions and then managing them efficiently even though he'll never be the centerpiece scorer. Bonus: now that Steve Nash is retired he could potentially be the first pick in TMBSL pickup soccer games.
6. Nikola Jokic C+ C B+ C+ C+ B
I know the grades and profile cast some doubt on whether he can actually be good or not but I struggle to think eric didn't find some way for this guy to eventually turn into a good player. This is another I'd put into the "SEND IT" category but if you can get your hands on him in the middle to late 1st I think that's an outstanding pick, especially if you're looking to build your team around passing. And hey even if he doesn't turn out that great his win shares will probably be inflated due to the extra passing and you might be able to pawn him off on someone unsuspecting.
7. Jusuf Nurkic B C- C- C+ B- C
He has grades to become a good to great scorer and his defense and rebounding start at a level good enough that he could develop into a starter depending on how those attributes are distributed. I would just guess that he'd probably be strong AF and his listed strength was just that so strength shouldn't be an issue (outside of having used it too many times in one sentence). I think he has a good chance to become the sleeper of this draft and despite potentially not having the huge upside of other players he probably has a very high floor.
8. Dario Saric C+ B- D+ C+ C B
This is where the picks start to get a little less exciting. Saric has decent enough starting grades but the elite size at the position is what has me intrigued. 3pt shot is listed as his strength so depending on how that and the C+ inside grade are distributed he could turn into quite the wing scorer. He will be limited since he can only play the 3 and probably won't rebound well enough to play the 4 but he's probably the best of what's around. Vonleh, Lavine, and Caboclo bring the intrigue of a teenager but for my money he's the last guy in my top 10 prospects for this draft.
Honorable Mention (in no order):
Zach Lavine B- C C C+ C- B (19 years old)
Bruno Caboclo C+ C C B- C C (Good size, 19 years old, Strength = Shot Blocking)
Clint Capela C+ C- C- B+ C+ D (Strength = Shot Blocking)
Maxi Kleber C+ C C- B C C (Strength = Shot Blocking)
Rodney Hood (Strength = Potential)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo C+ C C C+ C C (Strength = Potential)
Most Exciting Potential Free Agents
1. Bill Russell
Russell is the best player on the market this offseason. While David Robinson slightly edged him in WS/48 this season I will give Bill the nod based on his entire body of work and his relative youth to the Admiral. He still put up a .260 WS/48 mark in what many could potentially call a down year (still good for fourth in the league) and is still the best defensive player in the league in my opinion. He will be in high demand and I'd love to see him go to a winner and give one of these to the Pistons:
2. Shaquille O'Neal
In what you will see become a trend for players in their contract year, Shaq also had a relative down year this season only registering a .210 WS/48 tally and having a slight dip in his pts/tsa over the previous year. He still isn't much of a shot blocker, his rebounding is good but not great, and he is on the edge of being a turnover problem. But he is arguably the best young big in the league and still easily among the best players in the league 25 and under so he will be worth the max he gets from someone.
3. LaPhonso Ellis
As I said with the theme of not having great contract years, LaPhonso posted a .198 WS/48 mark in 2031 despite coming into the season with a career mark of .238. Having to deal with the obscene ball-hogging of Kyrie Irving didn't help and he also so a reduced workload in the crowded Dallas frontcourt. Whoever pays LaPhonso max money will get a really good defender and rebounder who can also score. I'm tempted to rank him above Shaq because I think he has higher upside but right now Shaq is producing more.
4. Marc Gasol
Things get a little murkier after the top 3. The high-level players (.200+ WS/48) like David Robinson, Tracy McGrady, and Emeka Okafor are old enough that they are big threats to retire or not be able to replicate what they did this season. Among the young players there isn't really someone clearly playing close to this stratosphere. Jared Sullinger is probably the next closest thing among guys 23-27 but he doesn't play a lick of defense. There isn't a single player on the wing or at point guard in that age group who is going to be available that put up more than .125 WS/48. The best non-big young guy according to WS that would be available was Tim Breaux but JHB just locked him up for another year on his LLE. That leaves Marc Gasol. The soon-to-be 29 year old is an excellent example of a guy who does everything well but perhaps nothing elite. He is probably going to be able to be gotten on a somewhat affordable deal if he doesn't re-sign and would provide high level production. While his advanced metrics may be a bit inflated by being with the Bulls, he certainly isn't going to do anything to hurt your chances to win and is a clear starter for almost any team in the league. A good get.
5. Nate Thurmond
I feel like this guy's potential isn't being unlocked which is unfortunate because he's already 30. He averages 13.6 rebounds per 36 and close to 2.5 steals and blocks per 36 as well. He doesn't turn the ball over and while he does shoot a bit too much he at least is acceptable in his scoring efficiency at around 1.10 pts/tsa. I feel like he could have been a (very) poor man's Bill Russell and I'd love to see him find a fit as a starter on a more outside focused team that would tone down his usage and let him shine for his rebounding and defense.
6. Grant Hill
While not sexy, Grant Hill is likely to be the best non-big on the market. In his "unleashing", as Majic called it, he has shown that he was capable of more than he was doing as the 4th option on those great Blazer teams but probably still isn't a center-piece. Good scoring efficiency, no turnovers, and passable defense and rebounding makes him a solid role player for a team needing another wing.
7. Jason Kidd
This is gross but he's absolutely the second best non-big available among players that aren't a big threat to retire. He's rounded himself out into a solid game manager type of point guard and would be a solid fit for a team that doesn't need their PG to do a whole lot.
Old Dudes That Can Definitely Still Help Your Team If They Don't Retire
1. David Robinson - .266 WS/48, 1.189 pts/tsa, 3.6 steals and blocks per 36
Still one of the best to ever do it. And he's still got it. He's a big-time contributor in the league.
2. Tracy McGrady - .189 WS/48, 1.180 pts/tsa, 4.22 ast/to ratio as a SF and 1.9 steals per 36
See the remarks for The Admiral, they also apply here.
3. Emeka Okafor - .203 WS/48, 1.189 pts/tsa, 14.5 rebounds per 36
Probably the best candidate on this list to get a 2-3 year contract to serve as a starter on a team that just needs another very good big to round out what they've got going on.
4. Kawhi Leonard - .117 WS/48, 1.111 pts/tsa, 4.0 steals and blocks per 36
Still the best wing defender in the game as far as I'm concerned. Won't hurt your offense and will definitely give a huge boost to your defense. Perfect for inside-focused teams.
5. Elgin Baylor - .132 WS/48, 1.194 pts/tsa
Another great fit on an inside-focused team, Baylor won't give you much as a defender but he is still an elite option to score.
6. God Shammgod - .154 WS/48, 1.070 pts/tsa, 8.64 ast/to ratio and 1.9 steals per 36
The perfect game manager. His defense has declined, but not much, and he's still as great a distributor as ever. His scoring is hurting but he won't use many of your possessions taking shots.
7. Jonas Valanciunas - .141 WS/48, 1.117 pts/tsa, 2.3 blocks per 36
Can still provide a presence on the boards and on the defensive end despite his offensive game really declining in the past two seasons.
8. Elton Brand - .159 WS/48, 1.220 pts/tsa
As always, this dude can still score and is perfect for a team looking to just get a scoring punch off the bench.
JHB's Super Sleeper Get 'Em While They're Hot FA Pickups on the Low Shhhhhhhh
1. Travis Outlaw
Can't teach the height, starting to put together some decent scoring punch, rebounds his position well, and is an adequate defender in terms of steals even without the blocks. Doesn't turn the ball over. Solid if not unspectacular potential as a starter, downside is that he doesn't have the position flexibility to backup both positions on the wing. Blank canvas for upgrades.
2. Tony Wroten
Does everything you want in a PG at this point except score efficiently, but he still has +25 left to get him to that point. Great assist to turnover ratio in over 1000 minutes played this season, rebounds his position well, can't teach the size, solid steals numbers, etc. Just need to bump up the scoring and get him some strength in a camp.
3. Chris Bosh
I still believe in Bosh. Good enough rebounder, 2.3 blocks per 36, doesn't turn it over much, and he has the potential to become a much better scorer with upgrades. Huge potential with the right team and right upgrades. I've been eyeing him for awhile now but just haven't had the room to add him and groom him.
4. Harold Miner
Good grades but unfortunately already maxed out on upgrades. He was getting 1.137 pts/tsa this season while on a bad team so maybe with a change of scenery it gets better. Not a ton of upside here but could be a solid role player on the right team.
1. Andrew Wiggins B+ C- D+ C+ C A
I've gone back and forth on this one. His jumping is probably maxed and his strength is probably incredibly high but with B+ inside I'm pretty sure the worst his inside scoring grade can be is 42. So if strength is high but not quite maxed, with a +25 upgrade to inside and the right camps and good TCs he could get to or surpass an A grade for inside as a wing. He's 19 and while his potential may be questionable, there may be some fuckery built into his C- outside grade, he might not ever be more than an average rebounder, and his defensive attributes may be built to not have him get counting stats...I still think it may be worth the risk for the upside. Send it!
2. Jabari Parker B C C- C C+ A
I have a thing for teenagers in this game. The idea of the big potential jump and a couple of huge TCs is really tantalizing. And Parker is a prospect who, according to Eric, the software version of the draft had go above Joel Embiid. So maybe there's something here that's worth taking a shot on. At worst he should be able to be developed into an incredibly efficient scorer and could become the next generation's Jerry Lucas.
3. Julius Randle B C- C+ C C+ B
See above. Another 19 year old who should have bully strength and be able to develop into a good interior scorer. Randle has had a tendency to be a beast in different iterations of TMBSL even though his game wouldn't seem to potentially translate well.
4. Dante Exum C+ C B B- D+ A
Full disclosure: I want to trade back into this draft to get a PG and I originally was targeting Marcus Smart. HOWEVER, the more I look at the combine results where Smart puts up big strength AND jumping numbers (to go with a B- inside grade doesn't bode well for his scoring efficiency) and the idea of having a 6'7" PG (Disclaimer: yes I saw he also had a huge jumping combine) who may have high potential and get some really good TCs seems a little more tantalizing. Both should put up defensive counting stats based on their profiles. I keep going back and forth but right now the coin toss is landing on Exum more than Smart.
5. Marcus Smart B- C B- B+ C- B
Like I said, this is really 4A and 4B for me. I think Marcus could fit on the right team where he isn't relied upon to play offense and just let his defense shine but it will also depend on him not being a turnover machine. Hopefully he turns into the perfect inside offense PG who just does a good job of adding possessions and then managing them efficiently even though he'll never be the centerpiece scorer. Bonus: now that Steve Nash is retired he could potentially be the first pick in TMBSL pickup soccer games.
6. Nikola Jokic C+ C B+ C+ C+ B
I know the grades and profile cast some doubt on whether he can actually be good or not but I struggle to think eric didn't find some way for this guy to eventually turn into a good player. This is another I'd put into the "SEND IT" category but if you can get your hands on him in the middle to late 1st I think that's an outstanding pick, especially if you're looking to build your team around passing. And hey even if he doesn't turn out that great his win shares will probably be inflated due to the extra passing and you might be able to pawn him off on someone unsuspecting.
7. Jusuf Nurkic B C- C- C+ B- C
He has grades to become a good to great scorer and his defense and rebounding start at a level good enough that he could develop into a starter depending on how those attributes are distributed. I would just guess that he'd probably be strong AF and his listed strength was just that so strength shouldn't be an issue (outside of having used it too many times in one sentence). I think he has a good chance to become the sleeper of this draft and despite potentially not having the huge upside of other players he probably has a very high floor.
8. Dario Saric C+ B- D+ C+ C B
This is where the picks start to get a little less exciting. Saric has decent enough starting grades but the elite size at the position is what has me intrigued. 3pt shot is listed as his strength so depending on how that and the C+ inside grade are distributed he could turn into quite the wing scorer. He will be limited since he can only play the 3 and probably won't rebound well enough to play the 4 but he's probably the best of what's around. Vonleh, Lavine, and Caboclo bring the intrigue of a teenager but for my money he's the last guy in my top 10 prospects for this draft.
Honorable Mention (in no order):
Zach Lavine B- C C C+ C- B (19 years old)
Bruno Caboclo C+ C C B- C C (Good size, 19 years old, Strength = Shot Blocking)
Clint Capela C+ C- C- B+ C+ D (Strength = Shot Blocking)
Maxi Kleber C+ C C- B C C (Strength = Shot Blocking)
Rodney Hood (Strength = Potential)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo C+ C C C+ C C (Strength = Potential)
Most Exciting Potential Free Agents
1. Bill Russell
Russell is the best player on the market this offseason. While David Robinson slightly edged him in WS/48 this season I will give Bill the nod based on his entire body of work and his relative youth to the Admiral. He still put up a .260 WS/48 mark in what many could potentially call a down year (still good for fourth in the league) and is still the best defensive player in the league in my opinion. He will be in high demand and I'd love to see him go to a winner and give one of these to the Pistons:
2. Shaquille O'Neal
In what you will see become a trend for players in their contract year, Shaq also had a relative down year this season only registering a .210 WS/48 tally and having a slight dip in his pts/tsa over the previous year. He still isn't much of a shot blocker, his rebounding is good but not great, and he is on the edge of being a turnover problem. But he is arguably the best young big in the league and still easily among the best players in the league 25 and under so he will be worth the max he gets from someone.
3. LaPhonso Ellis
As I said with the theme of not having great contract years, LaPhonso posted a .198 WS/48 mark in 2031 despite coming into the season with a career mark of .238. Having to deal with the obscene ball-hogging of Kyrie Irving didn't help and he also so a reduced workload in the crowded Dallas frontcourt. Whoever pays LaPhonso max money will get a really good defender and rebounder who can also score. I'm tempted to rank him above Shaq because I think he has higher upside but right now Shaq is producing more.
4. Marc Gasol
Things get a little murkier after the top 3. The high-level players (.200+ WS/48) like David Robinson, Tracy McGrady, and Emeka Okafor are old enough that they are big threats to retire or not be able to replicate what they did this season. Among the young players there isn't really someone clearly playing close to this stratosphere. Jared Sullinger is probably the next closest thing among guys 23-27 but he doesn't play a lick of defense. There isn't a single player on the wing or at point guard in that age group who is going to be available that put up more than .125 WS/48. The best non-big young guy according to WS that would be available was Tim Breaux but JHB just locked him up for another year on his LLE. That leaves Marc Gasol. The soon-to-be 29 year old is an excellent example of a guy who does everything well but perhaps nothing elite. He is probably going to be able to be gotten on a somewhat affordable deal if he doesn't re-sign and would provide high level production. While his advanced metrics may be a bit inflated by being with the Bulls, he certainly isn't going to do anything to hurt your chances to win and is a clear starter for almost any team in the league. A good get.
5. Nate Thurmond
I feel like this guy's potential isn't being unlocked which is unfortunate because he's already 30. He averages 13.6 rebounds per 36 and close to 2.5 steals and blocks per 36 as well. He doesn't turn the ball over and while he does shoot a bit too much he at least is acceptable in his scoring efficiency at around 1.10 pts/tsa. I feel like he could have been a (very) poor man's Bill Russell and I'd love to see him find a fit as a starter on a more outside focused team that would tone down his usage and let him shine for his rebounding and defense.
6. Grant Hill
While not sexy, Grant Hill is likely to be the best non-big on the market. In his "unleashing", as Majic called it, he has shown that he was capable of more than he was doing as the 4th option on those great Blazer teams but probably still isn't a center-piece. Good scoring efficiency, no turnovers, and passable defense and rebounding makes him a solid role player for a team needing another wing.
7. Jason Kidd
This is gross but he's absolutely the second best non-big available among players that aren't a big threat to retire. He's rounded himself out into a solid game manager type of point guard and would be a solid fit for a team that doesn't need their PG to do a whole lot.
Old Dudes That Can Definitely Still Help Your Team If They Don't Retire
1. David Robinson - .266 WS/48, 1.189 pts/tsa, 3.6 steals and blocks per 36
Still one of the best to ever do it. And he's still got it. He's a big-time contributor in the league.
2. Tracy McGrady - .189 WS/48, 1.180 pts/tsa, 4.22 ast/to ratio as a SF and 1.9 steals per 36
See the remarks for The Admiral, they also apply here.
3. Emeka Okafor - .203 WS/48, 1.189 pts/tsa, 14.5 rebounds per 36
Probably the best candidate on this list to get a 2-3 year contract to serve as a starter on a team that just needs another very good big to round out what they've got going on.
4. Kawhi Leonard - .117 WS/48, 1.111 pts/tsa, 4.0 steals and blocks per 36
Still the best wing defender in the game as far as I'm concerned. Won't hurt your offense and will definitely give a huge boost to your defense. Perfect for inside-focused teams.
5. Elgin Baylor - .132 WS/48, 1.194 pts/tsa
Another great fit on an inside-focused team, Baylor won't give you much as a defender but he is still an elite option to score.
6. God Shammgod - .154 WS/48, 1.070 pts/tsa, 8.64 ast/to ratio and 1.9 steals per 36
The perfect game manager. His defense has declined, but not much, and he's still as great a distributor as ever. His scoring is hurting but he won't use many of your possessions taking shots.
7. Jonas Valanciunas - .141 WS/48, 1.117 pts/tsa, 2.3 blocks per 36
Can still provide a presence on the boards and on the defensive end despite his offensive game really declining in the past two seasons.
8. Elton Brand - .159 WS/48, 1.220 pts/tsa
As always, this dude can still score and is perfect for a team looking to just get a scoring punch off the bench.
JHB's Super Sleeper Get 'Em While They're Hot FA Pickups on the Low Shhhhhhhh
1. Travis Outlaw
Can't teach the height, starting to put together some decent scoring punch, rebounds his position well, and is an adequate defender in terms of steals even without the blocks. Doesn't turn the ball over. Solid if not unspectacular potential as a starter, downside is that he doesn't have the position flexibility to backup both positions on the wing. Blank canvas for upgrades.
2. Tony Wroten
Does everything you want in a PG at this point except score efficiently, but he still has +25 left to get him to that point. Great assist to turnover ratio in over 1000 minutes played this season, rebounds his position well, can't teach the size, solid steals numbers, etc. Just need to bump up the scoring and get him some strength in a camp.
3. Chris Bosh
I still believe in Bosh. Good enough rebounder, 2.3 blocks per 36, doesn't turn it over much, and he has the potential to become a much better scorer with upgrades. Huge potential with the right team and right upgrades. I've been eyeing him for awhile now but just haven't had the room to add him and groom him.
4. Harold Miner
Good grades but unfortunately already maxed out on upgrades. He was getting 1.137 pts/tsa this season while on a bad team so maybe with a change of scenery it gets better. Not a ton of upside here but could be a solid role player on the right team.
