Post by TimPig on Jan 26, 2020 18:49:24 GMT
2031 Random Rankings
Top Six Contenders
1. Chicago Bulls - LeBron’s return, coupled with Oscar’s remaining contract, should have this team contending for the next few years at least. The biggest if is at center, where Jermaine O’Neal and Marcus Camby have both received significant minutes. LeBron’s seamless transition to power forward allowed the Bulls to get all of their talented wings on the floor, but the center spot is mostly occupied by guys who are likely better suited as third bigs. Allen Iverson is playing well in limited minutes, but if he needs to be counted on in the playoffs this team likely gets itself in some trouble.
2. Atlanta Hawks - They’re aging in some spots, but I don’t expect that to hurt this team this year or in the long run. None of Elgin Baylor, Stephen Jackson, or God Shammgod are all that important to the success of this team, which is currently built around Jerry Lucas and Shaq, with Emeka Okafor providing solid minutes off the bench. Cazzie Russell and John Havlicek on the wing could offset an injury to either Jackson or Baylor, and Kendall Marshall could maybe possibly be a better point guard today than Shammgod. I like the depth here, and with Embiid coming into the fold next year their aging guys shouldn’t be that much of a detriment. Jerry Lucas seems like he’s been around forever but is only 29 and seems to be playing his best ball over the last couple of seasons.
3. Orlando Magic - I said last year that I thought it was the Magic’s last shot at a title run, though they might be able to grab one more with this core if everything goes their way. There’s absolutely no depth on this team but the starting five can match up with anyone. It’s a truly fascinating team construction as they have four starters getting paid max or near-max contracts, one mid-tier player in Bellamy, and then straight minimums across the board. I’m not sure they’ll be able to cut it against the depth that the Bulls and Hawks offer.
4. Dallas Mavericks - This team surprised last year, but I’m not sure they got much better in the offseason. Kyrie is likely in his last season of being a team’s top scoring option, but there’s some nice secondary scoring across the board from Laphonso Ellis, Bradley Beal, James Worthy, and Bernard King. The depth everywhere is really nice, however, with Nate Thurmond, Glen Davis, King, and Cousy all coming off the bench. They may have as good of a second unit as anyone, but I’m not sure they have enough firepower in their starting five to contend.
5. Harlem Globetrotters - I think this team is one year away from being really good. Ward was likely prepping for Magic’s arrival and should be able to get max space this offseason. If he can nab someone, along with Magic’s development and some other good to very good role players in Glenn Robinson, Al Horford, and Anthony Davis, this team is set to be very good in the coming seasons. I feel they’ll fall just a bit short this year, but I doubt they expected to be a championship team during Magic’s rookie year anyway.
6. Tri-Cities Blackhawks - I actually don’t see this team as a real contender and think their good record speaks more to how weak the likes of the Trail Blazers, Pistons, Oaks, and Pelicans are. BK has lots of good players - Greg Oden, Josh Howard, Darko this season - but I’m not sure I see anyone great, though Calvin Natt might be able to get there eventually. I think if this team could add one real stud wing, there’d be enough complementary pieces to get this team to the next level.
Five big offseason decisions to be made
1. Crowded Atlanta frontcourt - With Embiid the clear pick at 1.1, JHB now has two former 1.1s in him and Shaq in his frontcourt, a fantastic young tandem that could be the league’s best big man duo for the next decade or more, assuming both stick around. The issue is that the Hawks also have Jerry Lucas, arguably the league’s top scorer and an elite rebounder who doesn’t play a lick of defense. He’s on a max contract for two years after this one, at which time he’ll likely start declining. Lucas probably brings a fantastic return if he can be dealt this offseason, but there’s also a level of uncertainty around Shaq and his expiring rookie contract. It’s unlikely you want to pay a bench third max dollars, which Shaq will likely command, so something will have to give here.
2. Bill Russell’s pending free agency - Russell will be 33 this offseason and while he’s not the player he once was, he’s still probably the league’s best center. It was an easy decision for Mike to accept his max re-sign after his rookie contract, but things get a little tougher here. Mike may be careless enough to offer him a second max to ensure Russell never wears another jersey, but that basically means he’s just giving up on the next 3-4 seasons. Five or six other teams could get in on the bidding and someone will surely be willing to take the risk and offer big bucks over the long term (looking at you, Odin) knowing they can amnesty him later if necessary. In Mike’s perfect world, Bill offers another re-sign but at a sub-max this time.
3. David Robinson and Tracy McGrady’s possible retirements - Robinson would be 37 next season but is still one of the league’s best players. T-Mac, at 35, has fallen off a bit, most notably in rebounding, but is still a top wing in the league. By spending a chunk of change this offseason, both players could be given retirement insurance to hang around for an extra season if the Magic or Blazers feel like they could contend next year. Robinson has the added benefit of having never been sent to Germany, so if Majic is willing to throw down the bucks, he could return the exact same player next year.
4. Who takes the risk on Andrew Wiggins - Wiggins’ B+ inside and likely very high potential are tantalizing, but most of that grade is likely made up of athletic attributes and I think we all know how Eric feels about him at this point (in before Eric says he doesn’t let his IRL feelings influence how he builds players). I’m not sure I’ve seen a more boom or bust prospect in years, especially since Wiggins could play shooting guard if whoever drafts him chooses not to grow him an inch.
5. Damian Lillard’s Miami future - I was struggling to find a fifth for this list, but things are always interesting in Miami. Lillard has proven himself to be a high-volume scorer and he’s on a very reasonable contract for what he provides. However, we know Odin doesn’t like long-term contracts and is always seeking ways to find additional soft cap space. I could very easily see Lillard dealt to a team in need of some outside scoring punch if they can offer the maximum amount of bucks and no salary going Miami’s way.
Five teams in need of an overhaul
1. Oakland Oaks - Fortunately for Kujo, he can really make some big things happen this offseason. There are some big names potentially hitting the free agent market - Shaq, Laphonso Ellis, Bill Russell, T-Mac, Josh Howard, Bernard King, and quite a few other above average players. With Sam Jones and Guy Rodgers’ contracts coming off the books, there will be tons of cap flexibility. Speaking of Guy Rodgers, holy hell is he bad. Majerle hasn’t performed quite as well as I expected after his +25, but that may be because he’s the #3 scoring option. Sam Jones might be worth bringing back on a much smaller contract, but the high turnovers and low rebounding really make him a one-trick pony. This is an offseason to make big moves for Oakland before Majerle needs to be resigned in a couple years.
2. Charlotte Hornets - I expected a starting lineup made up of pleasant surprise Bill Cartwright, Jonas Valanciunas, Kevin Durant, and Mitch Richmond to be better than sub-.500. Looking forward, I think the only one of those players I really want to hang on to if I’m Fecta is Cartwright. Durant is massively underperforming compared to his contract, and I still have really mixed feelings about Richmond and his turnovers. If Fecta gave a shit, he’d try and trade Durant, buyout Zarko, send a couple guys on rookie contracts down to his non-existent minor league team, and get some cap space before he does need to re-sign Mitch if that’s what he wants to do and while Bill is on his rookie contract.
3. Portland Trail Blazers - This team lacks any real scoring punch outside of D-Rob right now, and there’s a good chance he’s not back in Portland next year. I’m not convinced a core of Grant Hill, Sidney Moncrief, Jared Sullinger, and *checks notes* James Donaldson is going to be enough to get this team to the top. Taurean Green’s contract is looking…not great right now as about the only thing he does remotely well is not turn the ball over. #Pigbomb I was prepared to make a big offer for Robinson earlier this season but that ship has likely sailed as negotiations never got very far. I think the only player on this team I’m sold on right now is Sullinger, and even his defensive game is severely lacking.
4. Detroit Pistons - As farfetched of a fantasy as this is, Mike could actually do some really impressive things if he were willing to trade Bill Russell. I bet if he did, he could net at least two or three early draft picks and another prospect or two. Combine all of that return package with 1.1 in the year of Pistol Pete/Dr.J/lots of other guys and Mike could have a real stew going. If he doesn’t trade Russell, he likely has to sign him to a big contract this offseason, which means cap flexibility is severely hampered leading to that first overall pick.
5. Orlando Magic - This team is pretty different from the others on this list in that they won a championship last year, but the core is aging big time and the depth is non-existent as Wilt, T-Mac, Jerry West, and Mike Conley eat up so much cap room. This team is still a playoff contender this season, but big changes look like they may be necessary in the offseason. Even if T-Mac doesn’t return this offseason, there’s no soft cap space to be spent on a replacement, so Skrouse might be hitting the MLE bargain bin and hoping for the best. If he doesn’t want to do that, he may be forced to desperately re-sign T-Mac for a high contract again (if he doesn’t retire) and then will once again be left without any depth and Wilt, Jerry, and T-Mac all a year older. A promotion of Terry Cummings from the minors would help offset any potential loss this offseason, but it may be time to look at a future built around him and Conley rather than the Wilt/T-Mac combo that’s been successful for so long.
Top five minor leaguers
1. Terry Cummings (Denver) - This guy should definitely be Orlando’s third big now but due to the aforementioned cap crunch they can’t afford to fit his rookie salary under their hard cap. His scoring attributes are really nice after his +25 last offseason - solid volume with good efficiency, and the fact that he came into the league a solid FT shooter is a nice perk we don’t see from tons of bigs. The defense leaves something to be desired, but as long as he’s surrounded by other good defensive players, he should be a starter in the league for a long time.
2. Chris Morris (Virginia) - He will be sent down tonight so I’m putting him on the list even though he’s technically still a Globetrotter at the time of publication. His rebounding numbers are awesome, and he’s a SF with SG eligibility, which means he can likely receive the +25 inside without trouble. He’s a decent enough inside scorer already and also has some nice per-36 defensive numbers. No real major flaws in this guy’s game if the scoring volume can get bumped up a bit.
3. Vinnie Johnson (Chicago) - Love the steal numbers, and has the potential to be a good scorer in an inside offense in the future after some upgrading. I’m not sure that’ll be in Chicago with the wings I currently have, but we’ll see what happens. I don’t love the high turnovers, which might prevent him from ever being great, but if he can get just a bit of training camp luck in the handling department he could be a good player.
4. Sleepy Floyd (Anaheim) - I want to hate this guy, though I’m not sure why. Probably because BK touts him as a great player. I hadn’t looked at his numbers in a while but he’s scoring efficiently and has nice steal numbers. Like Johnson, turnovers are a bit high, but he also has +25 available. The rebounding is weak, but he might end up being a nice fit in an outside offense.
5. Darren Tillis (Chicago) - There’s a pretty good drop off here but Tillis has decent per-36 numbers at 1.05 pts/tsa, over 10 rebounds, and over two bleals per game. Turnovers aren’t terrible, and neither is the free throw shooting so he’s a pretty easy choice for +25 inside, which should crank up the efficiency. The shown potential is a D, so he might be capped out on any natural growth, but after the +25 he should be good enough to be a third big at the worst.
