Post by TimPig on Oct 16, 2019 14:41:28 GMT
Biggest Offseason Movers
Tri-Cities Blackhawks: Taking on Tim Duncan’s contract - $78,750,000 remaining over four years - is risky because he’s 33 and already on the decline, but it makes some sense for a team hoping to win now. With Duncan and Silas, the Blackhawks have two real bigs to start this year, unlike last season when they featured Silas and a few middling bigs. The starting wings are nice in Kawhi Leonard and Josh Smith and provide some excellent defense, but wing depth is a big question mark. Allen Iverson starts at point guard and, despite having arguably the worst contract in the league, won’t hurt you (though it won’t help much either). Devin Harris replaces John Wall for wing depth, which is probably close to a push overall. I see this team being better this year by adding Duncan, but that contract will hurt in the not so distant future. With a very valuable 1.3 in the 2027 draft, this team could still make one more huge move to become a title favorite.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks lost an above-average point guard for the second straight offseason as Antonio Daniels departed for Portland. He’s replaced by...Jameer Nelson? Winston Garland? Adrian Smith? JHB is high on Jameer Nelson, and perhaps rightfully so. His per-36 numbers were nice last year, with the exception of 2.7 TOs. That’s one area neither Daniels or Shammgod struggled with, but Nelson has +25 so maybe that will get fixed. Garland received about 50 minutes last season and Adrian Smith doesn’t look like he’s worth anything. Point guard isn’t the most crucial position in 5.0, but after having a stranglehold on the league for years, the Hawks are now behind the Globetrotters and Magic in my official power rankings, and pretty similar to the Trail Blazers and Blackhawks. They'll still contend, but appear to have a major hole for the time being.
Chicago Bulls: The plan is in motion in Chicago, as the Bulls made some big moves this offseason before some exciting draft prospects come around next offseason. Last year Chicago won 46 games with Luol Deng and Manu Ginobili starting on the wings, and T.R. Dunn and Nick Young providing depth. Of those four players, Ginobili is maybe the only one who was worth a roster spot last season. Rick Barry, who will get +25 before the season starts, is an obvious upgrade. Fourth overall pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a big question mark we’ll know more about after preseason, but it'd be hard to be much worse than Deng. If not, Dennis Hopson or Dion Waiters could start at small forward. This should be a much better team this season with the chance to add a couple of superstars through the 2027 draft.
Oakland Oaks: The Oaks finally have all of their big contracts off the books with Klay, Penny, and Boogie gone and had the opportunity for a bit of a reset this year. Boogie was bought out in the middle of the season, but the DC in Oakland before then was Cousins/Camby/Havlicek/Jones/Thomas. So far this offseason, it’s looking like Scott/Camby/Naulls/Jones/Shammgod is the starting lineup and there’s a bit more depth with Araujo, Bill Bradley, and Thomas coming off the bench. Still not great, but if Naulls can be decent, this isn’t an awful starting lineup, especially once Scott gets +25.
Dallas Mavericks: Looks like Delap may be shooting for one more reset while Kyrie is still in his prime, dealing the only other star on the team in Tim Duncan for Chris Webber and the rights to Alonzo Mourning. As a result, the team will be much worse this season. Webber isn’t a starting-caliber player and the other likely starter up front is Elton Brand, whose game has too many holes to be an elite big. Kevin Durant underwhelmed as a rookie and got worse in training camp. We’ll see if he has real scoring chops this year as he’ll get more touches with Duncan in Tri-Cities. Maybe Adonal Foyle starts instead of Webber, but he’s more of a D/R big and those haven’t proven to be essential pieces on championship teams in 5.0.
Worst Contracts
Norm Nixon - Detroit Pistons: A real head-scratcher of a re-signing by Mike last offseason (especially with Jason Kidd around) as Nixon asked for $33,000,000 over four seasons. Most starting point guards aren’t worth $8,000,000+ per season, and Nixon isn’t even a good backup. Mike wouldn’t have been in hard cap trouble this offseason had he not accepted Nixon’s re-signing.
Ray Allen - Harlem Globetrotters: It was a signing based on potential last offseason as Allen put up great percentages but lacked volume. He didn’t get upgrades or much of a chance in Denver, and in Harlem he’s shown that even with upgrades he still can’t score at volume. He doesn’t rebound or play particularly great defense either. He’s a good buyout or amnesty candidate depending on Ward’s cap situation over the next few seasons.
Guy Rodgers - Orlando Magic: The max re-signing is a bit different than most of the other names on this list, as the Magic are a championship team without cap flexibility who couldn’t afford to lose an above average point guard. Rodgers performed very well after taking over for Nick Van Exel, helping bring Orlando its first title, but he’s going to be getting paid almost $19,000,000 as a 33-year-old. This probably isn’t a very tradeable contract and could bite Skrouse when guys like Marc Gasol, Walt Bellamy, Eddie Jones, and the other youngsters all come up for re-signing.
Allen Iverson - Tri-Cities Blackhawks: This contract or Norm Nixon’s are probably the worst in the league in my opinion. Iverson makes on average $12,000,000 per year and the only thing he does decently is not turn the ball over. Just as Nixon and most point guards aren’t worth $8,000,000 per year, Iverson certainly isn’t worth $12,000,000 for each of the next five years.
Luol Deng - Chicago Bulls: The smallest contract here, Deng has $10,000,000 remaining on his contract over the next two seasons, but he’s not worth more than a minimum contract. He’s trash. Certified. Can’t score, rebound, play defense, or do anything well. I’m not sure what BK saw in him to sign him last offseason, and he had to sacrifice a mid-first to get rid of him (though he added Iverson in a separate, similarly questionable deal).
Top Minor Leaguers
Brian Grant - Seattle Supersonics: Probably not in the minors for much longer, Grant may be part of the aforementioned Mavericks rebuild. Grant looks like a solid scorer and defender but a slightly below average rebounder. Either way, he can contribute on a major league team and there aren’t many minor leaguers who can do that. Mourning, Grant, and Kyrie could be three players to build around in the coming years.
Marc Gasol - Denver Nuggets: Gasol averaged a really rough 1.05 pts/tsa as a last season, but he still looks like he has all the tools to be a solid player. He’s already a decent defender and solid rebounder, and with +25 inside should be a good scorer.
Juwan Howard - Denver Nuggets: The second Nugget on the list, Skrouse seems to follow the Aaron Rodgers model with most of his first-round picks, as Bernard King, Eddie Jones, Walt Bellamy, and Gasol have all plied their trade in the minors. Below average scorer but solid everywhere else, Howard will be a good big man with upgrades.
Glen Davis - Seattle Supersonics: Things get much thinner after the top three as Davis is a real reach. He looked strong in the early parts of last season, but after a full season in the minors his defense might be the only thing that’s decent. Turnovers are high, rebounds are low, and scoring efficiency is poor.
Acie Law - Spirits of St. Louis: Another reach, but hey, at least Law averaged over 1.00 pts/tsa (1.04). He really doesn’t do anything well, but there isn’t anyone else who really fits in as a minor league player with big league potential.
Contenders’ Biggest Holes
Atlanta Hawks - Point Guard: Antonio Daniels filled in admirably for God Shammgod, but the disruption in locker room chemistry was the clearest factor that led to Atlanta failing to bring home a title last season. It’s a huge question mark this season as JHB is banking on Nelson holding down the fort in his first season as a starter.
Harlem Globetrotters - Backup Point Guard: This was a reach, obviously. This team is four deep in their front court, potentially five deep on the wings, and have a starting point guard who won’t hurt the team. Walt Hazzard and rookie Tomas Satoransky are the backup points, so that’s the only place where they don’t have impressive depth. After another strong offseason, this team is a championship contender.
Orlando Magic - Third Big: Wilt Chamberlain and Boogie are an excellent starting duo, but Walt Bellamy is a clear downgrade. Like with Harlem, this is a bit of a reach as this team has talent all over, even at backup point guard assuming Damian Lillard isn’t a liability. Marc Gasol would probably be an upgrade over Bellamy should Skrouse choose to call him up.
Portland Trail Blazers - Wing Depth: Grant Hill and Elgin Baylor are good enough starters for a team with two good big men and a solid replacement for the recently-retired NVE in Antonio Daniels. Scottie Pippen looks like he’ll back up both positions on the wing but the only thing he does is get steals as he can’t score or rebound.
Tri-Cities Blackhawks - Wing Depth: Kawhi and Josh Smith are a solid starting duo, but John Havlicek and Peja are big downgrades after that. Devin Harris might back up at point guard and shooting guard, which means backup small forward would be the only weakness. Probably not a crippling hole for this team like it would be for Portland.
