Proposal: Minimum Resignings (884 views)

[Deleted]

Not only that but it would concentrate even more power for the people who lucked into drafting superstars because the only players that would be signed to more than 1:1 deals would be people like LeBron or Kyrie on their 2nd deal. Not to mention how ridiculously OP rookie contracts will become. This shifts the meta too far if you make re-signs not money efficient.

.75:1 or .85:1 would be better

[jhb]

Oct 15, 2019 11:55:29 GMT @bkisok said:

Oct 15, 2019 11:52:41 GMT jhb said:

It's a fair deal. Paying max for 10+ win shares is what should be happening.

It's ridiculous and would rewrite literally every re-sign not just the min. Al just re-signed for 5/60 and under your proposal thats not paying him enough.

Mularkey

AI isn't in the 90th percentile so his re-sign wouldn't get kicked out as unfair

[jhb]

There would only be like 5-6 players this apply to ever year and they would have to re-sign for minimums

[Deleted]

I didn't see the 90 percentile part. Still seems overly complicated. But hey, if I'm not the one doing the work who cares

[skrouse]

Oct 15, 2019 12:02:20 GMT jhb said:

There would only be like 5-6 players this apply to ever year and they would have to re-sign for minimums

This, the rule would apply to a handful of guys each year.  We'd have to set a W/S or Minutes (or some combination) minimum to be eligible for this, also have to discuss how to handle dudes in the minors.

This year 12 guys resigned for mins.  Of these 12 there are only 6 that jump off the page. None of these guys should be on a minimum deal.

1.1 - Trail Blazers PG Jim King resigns $540,850 1 years
2.6 - Magic SF Jalen Rose resigns $565,850 1 years
0.0 - Trail Blazers SF Maurice Stokes resigns $590,850 1 years
0.5 - Mavericks SF Willie Naulls resigns $590,850 1 years
8.0 - Trail Blazers SF Elgin Baylor resigns $590,850 1 years
4.0 - Hornets SF Marques Johnson resigns $653,350 1 years
4.8 - Magic SF Bernard King resigns $653,350 1 years
6.7 - Blackhawks SF Josh Smith resigns $715,850 1 years
9.6 - Globetrotters SF Cazzie Russell resigns $840,850 1 years
5.6 - Globetrotters SF Jimmy Butler resigns $1,000,000 1 years
0.1 - Heat SF Shawn Marion resigns $1,000,000 1 years
0.0 - Heat C Chris Andersen resigns $1,000,000 1 years

[skrouse]

And if you remove rookies from JHB's list, 4 of those guys are in the top 5.

Contract WS48/$MM Player
$590,850 0.24484 Marques Johnson
$653,350 0.22567 Josh Smith
$540,850 0.22227 Jim McIlvane
$778,350 0.22094 Cazzie Russell
$590,850 0.21814 Bernard King

[Deleted]

I will literally fight you if you take my joshie from me

[skrouse]

Oct 15, 2019 12:31:13 GMT @bkisok said:

I will literally fight you if you take my joshie from me

You can keep him, just pay for him. Won't happen this year anyway, FAs almost over. Plus eric may not even like the idea. 

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 12:37:48 GMT skrouse said:

Oct 15, 2019 12:31:13 GMT @bkisok said:

I will literally fight you if you take my joshie from me

You can keep him, just pay for him. Won't happen this year anyway, FAs almost over. Plus eric may not even like the idea. 

eric will literally not pass up an opportunity to sabotage my team

[skrouse]

Oct 15, 2019 12:44:28 GMT @bkisok said:

Oct 15, 2019 12:37:48 GMT skrouse said:

You can keep him, just pay for him. Won't happen this year anyway, FAs almost over. Plus eric may not even like the idea. 

eric will literally not pass up an opportunity to sabotage my team

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 12:02:20 GMT jhb said:

There would only be like 5-6 players this apply to ever year and they would have to re-sign for minimums

This is why this process is flawed though, and using winshares works better because it casts a wider, simpler net.

The fact that you want this to only apply to minimums makes it completely nonsensical. It makes sense based on your analysis "oh wow look at how much WS48/$$$ this guy is getting on a min", that someone re-signing for like, I dunno, 1.5M wouldn't show up in your analysis but in reality would be just as ridiculous. Whether Cazzie Russell plays on a min or plays on a 2m dollar deal both are super unfair, however your algorithm would say Cazzie on a min is 2X as bad as him on 2M, while in sim league where where there is 80M dollars to spend for each team, Cazzie Russell on 2m or 1m is absolutely no difference to them in any way.

tl;dr restricting it to just mininmums because you're focused on WS/48/$ is not a good method to get rid of all the dumb contracts

[jhb]

Yes but the difference here is that almost no one offers to re-sign for an amount between mid-level and minimum for the most part so the analysis just identifies and recalibrates the minimum signings that are unfair

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 12:58:22 GMT jhb said:

Yes but the difference here is that almost no one offers to re-sign for an amount between mid-level and minimum for the most part so the analysis just identifies and recalibrates the minimum signings that are unfair

I don't have the data to say whether this is true or not, but making a method based on something that hasn't even been happening that long, could be subject to change, and is very specific is generally not a good idea.

You want your rule to be as generalizable as possible, we don't know why they are/aren't signing for between the min and the MLE, but we also don't know if/when it will start or if it has already. It would be better to just have a rule that will cover all possible scenarios.

WS*.80

so elegant

[Majic]

Oct 15, 2019 1:16:35 GMT TimPig said:

That all makes sense.

I just think these sorts of sweetheart deals allow a championship team like the Magic to keep a starting caliber player for very cheap on the bench when another team would pay good money for that player.

I think just about every team in the league would pay King more than $2.4m per year.

This is my opinion too. There is a lack of quality depth in the league, theres no reason a high level starting wing should be resigning on a min deal. 


In addition, I am in favor for some type of correction going into affect. However we determine the calculations for who qualifies for it.

Good players should be paid such, forces contending teams to be smarter about their salary and team building.

[skrouse]

Oct 15, 2019 13:32:06 GMT Majic said:

Oct 15, 2019 1:16:35 GMT TimPig said:

That all makes sense.

I just think these sorts of sweetheart deals allow a championship team like the Magic to keep a starting caliber player for very cheap on the bench when another team would pay good money for that player.

I think just about every team in the league would pay King more than $2.4m per year.

This is my opinion too. There is a lack of quality depth in the league, theres no reason a high level starting wing should be resigning on a min deal. 


In addition, I am in favor for some type of correction going into affect. However we determine the calculations for who qualifies for it.

Good players should be paid such, forces contending teams to be smarter about their salary and team building.

So do we all agree that these deals need to be nixed somehow? Sounds like we just need to determine the how. 

W/Ss - Re-Signings

8.0 - Trail Blazers SF Elgin Baylor resigns $590,850 1 years
4.0 - Hornets SF Marques Johnson resigns $653,350 1 years
4.8 - Magic SF Bernard King resigns $653,350 1 years
6.7 - Blackhawks SF Josh Smith resigns $715,850 1 years
9.6 - Globetrotters SF Cazzie Russell resigns $840,850 1 years
5.6 - Globetrotters SF Jimmy Butler resigns $1,000,000 1 years

[jhb]

Well none of it would be done this year.

I'm redoing the analysis now.

[Majic]

Oct 15, 2019 13:53:42 GMT skrouse said:

Oct 15, 2019 13:32:06 GMT Majic said:

This is my opinion too. There is a lack of quality depth in the league, theres no reason a high level starting wing should be resigning on a min deal. 


In addition, I am in favor for some type of correction going into affect. However we determine the calculations for who qualifies for it.

Good players should be paid such, forces contending teams to be smarter about their salary and team building.

So do we all agree that these deals need to be nixed somehow? Sounds like we just need to determine the how. 

W/Ss - Re-Signings

8.0 - Trail Blazers SF Elgin Baylor resigns $590,850 1 years
4.0 - Hornets SF Marques Johnson resigns $653,350 1 years
4.8 - Magic SF Bernard King resigns $653,350 1 years
6.7 - Blackhawks SF Josh Smith resigns $715,850 1 years
9.6 - Globetrotters SF Cazzie Russell resigns $840,850 1 years
5.6 - Globetrotters SF Jimmy Butler resigns $1,000,000 1 years

I think it would be hard to do anything for these guys this season. 

I think we can work out the exact system that will determine the players and then work from there on the amount of the resign.

[skrouse]

Sorry for the confusion, I meant going forward, these specific deals this year are locked in.

[jhb]

I will have a more thorough breakdown shortly

[eric]

so here's what i did

establish every player's neutralized production last year by 2663 MP * WS/48
-2663 was the average of the top 60 (12 teams * 5 starters) and works out to 32mp per 82g or 36mp per 74g

WS/48 was last season's if MP>1000 and career if not
-and if the player had no career MP, any resign was legal

neutralized production was multiplied by the market rate of $779,487,488 / 858 WS
-this was used as the first year of the contract, and all further years were +10% on the first year raises
-this is how the software currently does all resignings

when i did this, 23 of the 45 offered resignings were underpays, with the following differences in starting value:



i don't like this, so i multiplied by .75. this reduced it to 18:



i like this. now, since i'm not going to be editing every roster page, here is how resignings would be posted going forwards:

2026 170 Globetrotters PF Zach Randolph resigns for $84,525,000 over 4 years
2026 170 Bullets PG Hal Greer resigns for $2,045,323 over 1 years
2026 170 Hawks PG Bob Cousy resigns for $93,013,020 over 6 years
2026 170 Magic PG Guy Rodgers resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years
2026 170 Oaks PG Kevin Johnson* resigns for $14,412,592 over 3 years (year one $4,367,452)
2026 170 Hawks PG Antonio Daniels resigns for $58,588,908 over 5 years
2026 170 Oaks PG Isaiah Thomas resigns for $28,091,514 over 4 years
2026 170 Magic SG Paul Arizin resigns for $12,373,528 over 3 years
2026 170 Oaks SG Sam Jones resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years
2026 170 Heat PF Cliff Robinson* resigns for $5,610,499 over 1 years
2026 170 Hornets SF Marques Johnson* resigns for $5,398,532 over 1 years
2026 170 Magic SF Bernard King* resigns for $4,904,349 over 1 years
2026 170 Blackhawks PG Allen Iverson resigns for $60,000,000 over 5 years
2026 170 Heat PF Rodney Rogers resigns for $7,000,000 over 1 years
2026 170 Trail Blazers SF Maurice Stokes resigns for $590,850 over 1 years
2026 170 Mavericks SF Willie Naulls* resigns for $4,809,149 over 1 years
2026 170 Trail Blazers SF Elgin Baylor* resigns for $6,274,027 over 1 years
2026 170 Trail Blazers PG Jim King* resigns for $1,096,502 over 1 years
2026 170 Globetrotters SG Kobe Bryant resigns for $75,000,000 over 5 years
2026 170 Globetrotters SF Jimmy Butler* resigns for $4,541,812 over 1 years
2026 170 Bulls SG Manu Ginobili resigns for $48,645,000 over 4 years
2026 170 Bullets PG Flynn Robinson* resigns for $5,517,070 over 2 years (year one $2,627,176)
2026 170 Trail Blazers PF Armen Gilliam resigns for $29,700,000 over 3 years
2026 170 Mavericks C Adonal Foyle resigns for $4,140,000 over 1 years
2026 170 Magic SF Jalen Rose* resigns for $2,134,783 over 1 years
2026 170 Blackhawks SF Josh Smith* resigns for $5,563,430 over 1 years
2026 170 Heat SF Shawn Marion* resigns for $2,685,013 over 1 years
2026 170 Oaks PF Len Chappell resigns for $3,217,500 over 2 years
2026 170 Globetrotters SF Cazzie Russell* resigns for $6,537,355 over 1 years
2026 170 Heat C Vlade Divac resigns for $10,500,000 over 1 years
2026 170 Hornets PF Bob Pettit resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years
2026 170 Globetrotters PF Dontonio Wingfield resigns for $70,640,625 over 6 years
2026 170 Magic PF Shareef Abdur-Rahim resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years
2026 170 Oaks PF Antoine Walker* resigns for $7,384,253 over 2 years (year one $3,516,311)
2026 170 Globetrotters C Andris Biedrins resigns for $49,725,000 over 5 years
2026 170 Bullets C Pero Antic* resigns for $7,249,292 over 2 years (year one $3,452,044)
2026 170 Heat C Robert Swift resigns for $30,811,154 over 4 years
2026 170 Bullets C Darrall Imhoff* resigns for $13,326,898 over 3 years (year one $4,038,454)
2026 170 Bulls C Ralph Drollinger resigns for $24,300,935 over 4 years
2026 170 Bullets C Wayne Embry* resigns for $10,545,499 over 2 years (year one $5,021,666)
2026 170 Bulls C Rafael Araujo resigns for $81,539,064 over 6 years
2026 170 Heat C Chris Andersen* resigns for $4,037,414 over 1 years
2026 170 Pistons C Bill Russell resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years
2026 170 Bulls C Chris Dudley resigns for $5,302,500 over 2 years
2026 170 Hawks C Yinka Dare resigns for $93,750,000 over 6 years

everyone with an * is scaled up, people with multiple years have their first year listed so people can keep track of their caps if they want to

[Deleted]

Deal

[jhb]

I don't think everyone who is technically an underpay should be adjusted, I think we should only focus on the top 10% most egregious or maybe top quartile

Otherwise I think it's too aggressive and punitive

[TimPig]

Vote yes for Eric's plan.

[jhb]

I'm a yes

[Majic]

yes for erics plan

until it fucks me. then im a hard no

[eric]

we discussed it in shout but for posterity

we're using WS/48 over WS, benching a player shouldn't make them resign for cheaper

we're not using artificial limits of offered resign or WS/48 - the system already takes into account specifically how much better a player is than their offered resign, so the Darrall Imhoffs of the world only get a small bump while the Cazzie Russells get a bigger one, and the players it only adjusts slightly are irrelevant anyway. this year there were 18 resigns that would have been impacted by the new system, of which 9 were accepted - marques johnson, bernard king, willie naulls, elgin baylor, jimmy butler, josh smith, shawn marion, cazzie russell, darrall imhoff

these are mostly the resigns people are concerned about anyway, and we didn't need to introduce any notches that could be exploited later.

.

i'm as always still open to more discussion but just so everyone's clear this is the way i'm strongly leaning right now

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 19:41:40 GMT eric said:

we discussed it in shout but for posterity

we're using WS/48 over WS, benching a player shouldn't make them resign for cheaper

we're not using artificial limits of offered resign or WS/48 - the system already takes into account specifically how much better a player is than their offered resign, so the Darrall Imhoffs of the world only get a small bump while the Cazzie Russells get a bigger one, and the players it only adjusts slightly are irrelevant anyway. this year there were 18 resigns that would have been impacted by the new system, of which 9 were accepted - marques johnson, bernard king, willie naulls, elgin baylor, jimmy butler, josh smith, shawn marion, cazzie russell, darrall imhoff

these are mostly the resigns people are concerned about anyway, and we didn't need to introduce any notches that could be exploited later.

.

i'm as always still open to more discussion but just so everyone's clear this is the way i'm strongly leaning right now

can we delay implementation until after josh smiths HOF vote

[TimPig]

With the offseason and re-signings approaching, did we reach a consensus here?

[skrouse]

I think eric's last proposal was good and most have ok'd it.

I don't love the "apply it to everyone who offers a min resign" part, but I guess the unintended players scope have a lesser effect on the league the the players we are targeting players for this rule. And if hitting the intended target also means hitting the Shawn Marion's of TMBSL, then I'm OK with it.

Approved.

[eric]

Oct 28, 2019 18:21:32 GMT TimPig said:

With the offseason and re-signings approaching, did we reach a consensus here?

i don't know but i'm doing it