Proposal: Minimum Resignings (881 views)

[jhb]

There was mention in the past of potentially looking at all of the contracts offered in resignings and preventing extremely one-sided resignings.

I wanted to see how bad the problem was so I decided to break down all of the contracts in TMBSL last year for players with 250+ minutes played and then compare their WS/48 to millions of dollars earned. Here is the data:

Dollars WS48/$MM Name

$332,817 0.39822 Tiago Splitter

$332,817 0.35426 Acie Law

$332,817 0.31672 Brandan Wright

$332,817 0.30029 Glen Davis

$332,817 0.29880 Chris Richard

$332,817 0.25479 Mirza Teletovic

$332,817 0.25285 Spencer Hawes

$590,850 0.24484 Marques Johnson

$332,817 0.23025 Gustavo Ayon

$465,850 0.23012 Darrall Imhoff

$653,350 0.22567 Josh Smith

$540,850 0.22227 Jim McIlvane

$778,350 0.22094 Cazzie Russell

$590,850 0.21814 Bernard King

$332,817 0.21667 Taurean Green

$332,817 0.21417 Anthony Tolliver

$653,350 0.20362 Jameer Nelson

$1,000,000 0.19039 Ousmane Cisse

$332,817 0.18353 Carl Landry

$332,817 0.17588 Nick Young

$465,850 0.16618 Bill McGill

$965,850 0.15620 Kemba Walker

$1,000,000 0.15096 Yinka Dare

$465,850 0.15060 Satch Sanders

$465,850 0.14650 Al Attles

$565,850 0.14199 Adrian Smith

$540,850 0.14125 Aaron McKie

$2,000,000 0.13458 Greg Oden

$1,200,000 0.13423 Penny Hardaway

$778,350 0.13018 Bill Bradley

$332,817 0.12593 Nick Fazekas

$965,850 0.12524 Jimmy Butler

$965,850 0.11948 Isaiah Thomas

$715,850 0.11504 Erick Dampier

$465,850 0.11211 Terry Dischinger

$2,000,000 0.11115 Paul Silas

$2,445,148 0.11018 Wilt Chamberlain

$1,000,000 0.10976 Rick Fox

$2,150,000 0.10873 Jerry Lucas

$1,200,000 0.10713 Scottie Pippen

$1,000,000 0.10419 Wesley Johnson

$590,850 0.10260 Kent Benson

$2,396,245 0.09997 Bill Russell

$965,850 0.09902 Klay Thompson

$465,850 0.09779 Tom Meschery

$2,000,000 0.09697 Al Horford

$778,350 0.09361 Flynn Robinson

$540,850 0.09260 B.J. Tyler

$2,038,637 0.09134 Guy Rodgers

$2,045,323 0.08551 Brian Grant

$2,150,000 0.08435 Walt Bellamy

$2,150,000 0.08415 Nate Thurmond

$1,200,000 0.08403 Jerry Sloan

$1,400,000 0.08299 Kevin Johnson

$2,150,000 0.08222 Oscar Robertson

$332,817 0.07678 Daequan Cook

$2,000,000 0.07443 Clifford Rozier

$2,262,724 0.06733 Grant Hill

$2,816,584 0.06651 Bob Pettit

$1,925,042 0.06580 Juwan Howard

$2,000,000 0.06454 Marc Gasol

$965,850 0.06393 Jimmer Fredette

$465,850 0.06370 Jim King

$2,004,417 0.06193 Donyell Marshall

$2,150,000 0.06084 Jerry West

$1,000,000 0.06056 Dickey Simpkins

$2,000,000 0.06007 Kevin Durant

$2,760,252 0.05984 Elgin Baylor

$1,000,000 0.05722 Jalen Rose

$2,000,000 0.05625 Yi Jianlian

$2,129,657 0.05469 Jason Kidd

$332,817 0.05330 Al Thornton

$2,150,000 0.05323 Zelmo Beaty

$2,308,902 0.05260 Eddie Jones

$653,350 0.05162 J.R. Smith

$3,378,220 0.04812 Sam Jones

$465,850 0.04724 Bob Wiesenhahn

$1,200,000 0.04663 Antoine Walker

$2,150,000 0.04555 Lenny Wilkens

$4,500,000 0.04250 Ron Mercer

$4,500,000 0.04061 Nikola Vucevic

$1,650,000 0.03991 T.R. Dunn

$2,942,338 0.03936 Shawnelle Scott

$1,400,000 0.03840 Otis Birdsong

$2,150,000 0.03761 Dave DeBusschere

$2,000,000 0.03589 Mike Conley

$2,000,000 0.03477 Corey Brewer

$4,500,000 0.03466 Shareef Abdur-Rahim

$2,000,000 0.03405 Jeff Green

$4,500,000 0.03393 Kenny Smith

$4,500,000 0.03384 Walt Hazzard

$6,804,687 0.03325 Enes Kanter

$2,659,640 0.03238 Glenn Robinson

$1,997,864 0.03201 Paul Arizin

$6,000,000 0.03067 Emeka Okafor

$4,500,000 0.02981 Rafael Araujo

$7,000,000 0.02933 Horace Grant

$6,000,000 0.02891 Armen Gilliam

$4,500,000 0.02864 Rick Barry

$5,000,000 0.02864 Devin Harris

$2,000,000 0.02828 Rudy Fernandez

$5,500,000 0.02820 Andre Miller

$6,000,000 0.02733 Rodney Rogers

$4,500,000 0.02702 Bobby Hurley

$5,000,000 0.02669 Richard Hamilton

$4,600,000 0.02551 Sam Cassell

$4,600,000 0.02508 Kobe Bryant

$4,500,000 0.02402 Ron Artest

$2,150,000 0.02368 Tom Thacker

$2,150,000 0.02368 John Havlicek

$8,800,000 0.02337 Marcus Camby

$5,000,000 0.02332 Al Jefferson

$10,000,000 0.02270 Nick Van Exel

$6,427,190 0.02220 Tobias Harris

$4,600,000 0.02213 Adonal Foyle

$9,022,922 0.02111 Tony Battie

$2,080,242 0.02103 Willie Naulls

$10,000,000 0.02089 Antonio Daniels

$6,000,000 0.02047 Dennis Hopson

$10,000,000 0.02035 Allen Iverson

$8,000,000 0.01829 Vlade Divac

$12,500,000 0.01765 Stephen Jackson

$13,750,000 0.01700 Jermaine O'Neal

$10,000,000 0.01700 John Wall

$15,000,000 0.01696 Jonas Valanciunas

$1,000,000 0.01644 Howard Eisley

$332,817 0.01629 Arron Afflalo

$2,000,000 0.01602 Rodney Stuckey

$17,500,000 0.01524 David Robinson

$20,312,500 0.01523 Kyrie Irving

$15,750,000 0.01489 Tim Duncan

$2,769,305 0.01465 Charlie Ward

$15,000,000 0.01458 Elton Brand

$5,000,000 0.01455 Andrei Kirilenko

$13,750,000 0.01430 Dwight Howard

$4,500,000 0.01411 Paul George

$19,000,000 0.01391 Zach Randolph

$4,400,000 0.01359 Luol Deng

$9,343,750 0.01292 Andre Iguodala

$2,000,000 0.01286 Joakim Noah

$15,000,000 0.01228 Steve Nash

$16,250,000 0.01215 Willis Reed

$18,750,000 0.01159 Olden Polynice

$20,625,000 0.01156 Tracy McGrady

$15,000,000 0.01110 Kawhi Leonard

$17,500,000 0.01060 God Shammgod

$11,750,000 0.01019 Manu Ginobili

$19,687,500 0.01004 Greg Monroe

$12,500,000 0.00845 Ray Allen

$17,094,728 0.00795 Chris Webber

$26,406,250 0.00790 Shawn Kemp

$1,964,328 0.00790 Eric Montross

$24,375,000 0.00756 DeMarcus Cousins

$7,147,356 0.00648 Norm Nixon

$2,166,016 0.00550 Hal Greer

$5,000,000 0.00259 Shawn Marion

$332,817 -0.00666 Thaddeus Young


Just some benchmark values here:

Average - .076
Median - .046
10th percentile - .012
90th percentile - .215

If we were to look back at even more additional years and create some sort of benchmark tying WS/48 to $ amount we could auto-decline any egregiously unfair contracts. If, for example, we took the 90th percentile mark from last year that would make contracts like the ones Marques Johnson, Josh Smith, Jim McIlvane, Cazzie Russell, and Bernard King ineligible to be accepted during resignings. The majority of the contracts above this threshold belong to rookies on minimum deals.

[Deleted]

josh smith yo

[TimPig]

Oct 14, 2019 20:02:34 GMT jhb said:

$332,817 -0.00666 Thaddeus Young

Steal of the draft.

[jhb]

Obviously the approach that would be best would be to go back and pull WS/48 values and non-rookie contracts for every season since contraction to get a fair sample and then establish an agreed upon percentile mark and then disqualify any resignings offered above that mark if it were an approach people would be interested in.

[jhb]

Oct 14, 2019 20:05:41 GMT TimPig said:

Oct 14, 2019 20:02:34 GMT jhb said:

$332,817 -0.00666 Thaddeus Young

Steal of the draft.

Was that sarcasm or do you not realize that he's the absolute worst player on the list?

[TimPig]

Oct 14, 2019 20:08:33 GMT jhb said:

Oct 14, 2019 20:05:41 GMT TimPig said:

Steal of the draft.

Was that sarcasm or do you not realize that he's the absolute worst player on the list?

[skrouse]

good stuff JHB, agree with the analysis you added in, need to remove rooks, need to compare multiple years. I think we should also compare by position, PGs never seem to mind asking for cash, but SFs must have low confidence.

[Majic]

I am generally in favor of the idea to decline these types of contracts.

Think this makes it too easy on some teams to hold onto talent thats worth far more than a minimum contract.

[eric]

when you say "auto-decline" are you saying that there would be no resigning ability for the team at all? that seems extreme to me

i wouldn't mind a minimum fair market value kind of thing, i would like to see people discuss that

[wee2dee]

Oct 14, 2019 20:27:46 GMT eric said:

when you say "auto-decline" are you saying that there would be no resigning ability for the team at all? that seems extreme to me

i wouldn't mind a minimum fair market value kind of thing, i would like to see people discuss that

maybe if they offer to re-sign, adjust it to an MLE type salary, 4-5 million offer?

[Deleted]

Oct 14, 2019 20:27:46 GMT eric said:

when you say "auto-decline" are you saying that there would be no resigning ability for the team at all? that seems extreme to me

i wouldn't mind a minimum fair market value kind of thing, i would like to see people discuss that

I feel like WS/48 is a little bit weird and just using total winshares would be appropriate. Then do something where like you could re-sign a guy for the same number of years he offered to re-sign at, but the salary would be like WS/2

[skrouse]

Should have a min based on something, W/S seems like the gold standard. So like if a dude like King offers to resign at a min, i can chose to take him at the W/S based min, and if he was at like 10+ that would be like 5 mil or something. But obviously that would only apply to those who offer to resign.

[TimPig]

Won't basing it off of previous year's win shares still be somewhat flawed?

Marques Johnson is one of the highlighted players and he only had 4 win shares last season. King is another and had 4.8.

It seems like these are the types of guys who are going to re-sign for a couple million (or whatever amount based off of their win shares) but would be candidates for major raises from other teams if they hit free agency.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 0:11:51 GMT TimPig said:

Won't basing it off of previous year's win shares still be somewhat flawed?

Marques Johnson is one of the highlighted players and he only had 4 win shares last season. King is another and had 4.8.

It seems like these are the types of guys who are going to re-sign for a couple million (or whatever amount based off of their win shares) but would be candidates for major raises from other teams if they hit free agency.

I thought about this and it doesn't seem that concerning to me. If a guy can't play enough to get a lot of winshares, he obviously isn't as good as advertised. I'm not sure JHBs ws/48/$$$ analysis should be seen as such a horrible thing. You see lots of really shitty players at the top. Two 2nd round and undrafted guys (gustavo ayon and mirza teletovic, check out their stats on the amigos) that I took in the last draft made his top 10, and they are complete garbage. Making it so they couldn't re-sign at such a low rate seems weird.

Even a player like Marques Johnson, if he really is so elite then why does he only have like 4 win shares. Getting a guy worth 4 winshares on a min is something that happens literally all the time. Getting a guy worth 12 winshares on a min (cazzie russell) shouldn't happen.

Straight winshares is also just way simpler and gets you out of dealing with minute cutoffs and all that bunk. Just look at the dudes winshares, give him the same years he offered to re-sign for, just reset the salary to either 50% of his winshares, or 75% or 85% or whatever we decide. I think 50% makes a lot of sense, because getting 2 wins per million dollars isn't a ridiculous deal but is still a great one.

[TimPig]

That all makes sense.

I just think these sorts of sweetheart deals allow a championship team like the Magic to keep a starting caliber player for very cheap on the bench when another team would pay good money for that player.

I think just about every team in the league would pay King more than $2.4m per year.

[skrouse]

Oct 15, 2019 1:16:35 GMT TimPig said:

That all makes sense.

I just think these sorts of sweetheart deals allow a championship team like the Magic to keep a starting caliber player for very cheap on the bench when another team would pay good money for that player.

I think just about every team in the league would pay King more than $2.4m per year.

We cant set the market value for a player, but we can prevent super teams from having a top 5-7 guy on a min, this is a salary cap league, it absolutely matter. Even a top 15-20 guy. A min should be borderline FA, not DC listed player on a playoff team.

[TimPig]

Oct 15, 2019 1:53:22 GMT skrouse said:

Oct 15, 2019 1:16:35 GMT TimPig said:

That all makes sense.

I just think these sorts of sweetheart deals allow a championship team like the Magic to keep a starting caliber player for very cheap on the bench when another team would pay good money for that player.

I think just about every team in the league would pay King more than $2.4m per year.

We cant set the market value for a player, but we can prevent super teams from having a top 5-7 guy on a min, this is a salary cap league, it absolutely matter. Even a top 15-20 guy. A min should be borderline FA, not DC listed player on a playoff team.

I think we mostly agree? Cazzie is obviously an issue, but using the WS route would provide more “fairness” to his salary.

I was just contending that it wouldn’t do the same for someone like King, a former first overall pick who would start on many teams. The WS-based-on-salary system would be flawed for someone like him because you’re able to keep him as a third wing and therefore keep his win shares down.

[wee2dee]

stop picking on my player guys, wow.

[jhb]

The reason the guys Billy mentioned are so low is because they’re on a rookie minimum

No one can resign for that low

[TimPig]

Oct 15, 2019 1:59:46 GMT wee2dee said:

stop picking on my player guys, wow.

I honestly have no issue with the system and would be fine with us making no changes. 

Usually guys only sign for those mins once or twice, like Iggy or Lattin. Cazzie is a special exception but I don’t see the need to blow things up when this has happened I think once in 25 seasons.

[jhb]

Oct 15, 2019 1:56:48 GMT TimPig said:

Oct 15, 2019 1:53:22 GMT skrouse said:

We cant set the market value for a player, but we can prevent super teams from having a top 5-7 guy on a min, this is a salary cap league, it absolutely matter. Even a top 15-20 guy. A min should be borderline FA, not DC listed player on a playoff team.

I think we mostly agree? Cazzie is obviously an issue, but using the WS route would provide more “fairness” to his salary.

I was just contending that it wouldn’t do the same for someone like King, a former first overall pick who would start on many teams. The WS-based-on-salary system would be flawed for someone like him because you’re able to keep him as a third wing and therefore keep his win shares down.

Which is why you’d base it off of WS/48 or extrapolate everyone’s win shares out to 36 mpg and 82 games...I track this in excel and call it xWS

In that case you could do xWS/mil$

And then with extreme outliers where they played so much their numbers are skewed the rule wouldn’t apply. You’d have to play 500+ minutes to fall under the minimum resignings rule

Then what you’d do is take everyone who offers a re-sign above whatever agreed upon percentile of xWS/mil$ and then rework it to a resign for the same number of years at the league median or average, whichever we agree upon

I’ll rework this with data since 2021, first year I tracked xWS, tomorrow and work up what that would be basically.

[skrouse]

King had 3.5 W/S the year prior to his first FA deal. He offered to sign for min in '25.

Similar players in '25 FA class
Shawn Marion - 6 Mil (3.3) in '24
Kobe Bryant - 12.5 Mil (3.8) in '24

So getting King at 3.5 mil, $1MM for 1W/S, would be a great deal. And well above min.

[TimPig]

Oct 15, 2019 2:07:28 GMT skrouse said:

King had 3.5 W/S the year prior to his first FA deal. He offered to sign for min in '25.

Similar players in '25 FA class
Shawn Marion - 6 Mil (3.3) in '24
Kobe Bryant - 12.5 Mil (3.8) in '24

So getting King at 3.5 mil, $1MM for 1W/S, would be a great deal. And well above min.

You had the benefit of having him come off the bench. In 2021 he had 10.9. In 2023 he had 7.7. He’s obviously a quality player who would have more win shares if he played, just like if Ward has more wings and Cazzie came off the bench, his win share total would be skewed lower. 

JHB’s idea makes more sense than going purely off win shares.

[skrouse]

He's at 4.8 this year, i got him for peanuts, I couldn't even afford him at 4.8 mil

[skrouse]

If we're doing a rate, the min # of minutes should be higher, like 1500 or somin, guys who barely play can go for mins imo. But not guys having any significant impact

[jhb]

Oct 15, 2019 2:16:36 GMT skrouse said:

If we're doing a rate, the min # of minutes should be higher, like 1500 or somin, guys who barely play can go for mins imo. But not guys having any significant impact

I think 1000 is a good number.

That’s anyone that plays 12 mpg or more over 82 games

[skrouse]

Fair enough

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 2:07:28 GMT skrouse said:

King had 3.5 W/S the year prior to his first FA deal. He offered to sign for min in '25.

Similar players in '25 FA class
Shawn Marion - 6 Mil (3.3) in '24
Kobe Bryant - 12.5 Mil (3.8) in '24

So getting King at 3.5 mil, $1MM for 1W/S, would be a great deal. And well above min

This is bad. Re-signings at a million per winshares is a fairly bad deal. How does a team with 50 wins fair in a league like ours? 50M is the salary cap.

[jhb]

Oct 15, 2019 11:37:31 GMT @bkisok said:

Oct 15, 2019 2:07:28 GMT skrouse said:

King had 3.5 W/S the year prior to his first FA deal. He offered to sign for min in '25.

Similar players in '25 FA class
Shawn Marion - 6 Mil (3.3) in '24
Kobe Bryant - 12.5 Mil (3.8) in '24

So getting King at 3.5 mil, $1MM for 1W/S, would be a great deal. And well above min

This is bad. Re-signings at a million per winshares is a fairly bad deal. How does a team with 50 wins fair in a league like ours? 50M is the salary cap.

It's a fair deal. Paying max for 10+ win shares is what should be happening.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 11:52:41 GMT jhb said:

Oct 15, 2019 11:37:31 GMT @bkisok said:

This is bad. Re-signings at a million per winshares is a fairly bad deal. How does a team with 50 wins fair in a league like ours? 50M is the salary cap.

It's a fair deal. Paying max for 10+ win shares is what should be happening.

It's ridiculous and would rewrite literally every re-sign not just the min. Al just re-signed for 5/60 and under your proposal thats not paying him enough.

Mularkey