Post by TimPig on Oct 2, 2019 22:04:46 GMT
A tribute to former GM fason .
1. Atlanta Hawks - Pretty obvious one here. They just became the third team to three-peat and, despite losing a stud wing in Kawhi Leonard in a league that is lacking good ones, they still have the best record in the league. They have a three-headed offensive monster in Jonas, Polynice, and Stephen Jackson, and may have actually improved at point guard by replacing God Shammgod with Antonio Daniels. Fortunately for JHB, other players have picked up Kawhi’s offensive output and he found a cheap wing in Jerry Sloan to replace his defensive capabilities.
2. Dallas Mavericks - I think the slow start for Dallas was a fluke, but I think they have the pieces to give the Hawks a challenge - in fact, they may be the only team I think can legitimately challenge. Kyrie is the best player in the league, though Dallas may end up with a low seed after the slow start and his injury covering the next two sims. Tim Duncan’s offensive numbers are the worst of his career, so those should come up a bit. Durant just got +25 and should pick up some of the scoring slack with Kyrie out. He also has some of the best wing depth in the league with Durant, Klay, and Ron Artest.
3. Portland Trail_Blazers - The Blazers have a big duo that can keep up with the Hawks’ duo, though I don’t think they’re quite as good. A huge hole has been fixed with the addition of NVE at point guard, and Majic has a couple solid young wings in Elgin Baylor and Grant Hill. I don’t mean to rub salt in the wound, but the loss of Hopson here is a big loss. Having him as a super-sub instead of Wesley Johnson would be a big improvement.
4. Tri-Cities Blackhawks - Despite having the second best record in the league, I’m still not incredibly high on a team that has one well-known superstar in Kawhi Leonard and then four other players who have been mediocre or relative unknowns for most of their careers in Iverson, John Wall, Paul Silas, and Vucevic. Some DC shuffling is happening to see if some guys can act as depth at multiple positions, and if that works, I could see this team jumping up ahead of the Blazers, though I don’t see them surpassing the Mavericks, despite being 2-0 against them so far.
5. Harlem Globetrotters - I never count Ward out of a title run, as even when he goes through rebuild phases they seem to be more like reloads. Z-Bo and the young bigs look very good, the wings are solid, and depth is decent. Walt Hazzard isn’t currently cutting it at point guard, but the strength elsewhere may be enough to overcome that shortcoming.
Orlando Magic - It feels like this team should be better with T-Mac and Wilt, but Wilt is underperforming so far this season. Guy Rodgers was a great find at point guard, and Eddie Jones probably needs more minutes. I expected Gasol to be better out of the gate, and without him performing at an above-average level, I’m not sure this team has the second big to excel.
1. Greg Oden - Call me biased if you want. Go ahead, do it. I dare you. Please don’t actually. Oden currently has far and away the best Pts/TSA among all rookies at 1.19 (Glen Davis is second with 1.11, KD third at 1.10). He’s also averaging 13.8 rebounds per 36, 26.8 points per 36, and 3.4 bleals per 36, which are all at or near the top among rookies. He also turns it over an impressive 1.3 times per 36, an attribute which has been detrimental for most young bigs lately. He’s also only 19 with tons of room for improvement. The only real weakness in Oden’s game after his +25 inside is the subpar free throw percentage.
2. Kevin Durant - Early returns aren’t particularly promising on Durant (per 36 numbers: 14.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 bleals and .462/.808/.375 shooting percentages) but the scoring numbers should all improve with the +25 inside he just received and natural growth since he’s only 19. I have a feeling Durant has really high potential and becomes a good player, but I have him behind Oden since Oden is already there.
3. Al Horford - I was expecting to debate between Oden and Horford at 1.2, but Horford came in with pretty meh grades, and the high passing indicated in his profile was a major turn-off. It looks like the grades were good in all the right places, however, as his defense (3.8 bleals per 36) and turnovers (1.2 per 36) are great. He needs some help on offense and the glass, and he may not have the highest potential based on his age, but he should be a very good player regardless. At least one that doesn’t hurt your team.
4. Marc Gasol - Gasol’s grades looked awesome, arguably better than Oden’s, so I really toiled with who to take at 1.2. I’m glad I ended up going with Oden, as Gasol is at just 1.05 pts/TSA and only his rebounding (12.3 per 36) stands out as good right now. Nothing looks particularly bad either, but I’m not sure his ceiling is going to be very high with the numbers he’s putting up now.
5. Glen Davis - Drafted all the way in the second round, things really fell off after the four names above. Most of the remaining players in the class aren’t even averaging 1.00 pts/TSA (Big Baby is at 1.11) and/or have two glaring holes that won’t be able to both be fixed in the lab. For Davis, the only major hole is turnovers. Perfect candidate for +25 handling.
1. Kyrie Irving - It was really tough to list Kyrie over Bill Russell, but I’m taking him first overall in a fantasy draft because of positional scarcity. Kyrie is far and away the best point guard in the league and has been for years. No one else comes close. While Bill is putting up stupid D/R numbers, we see way more good bigs in the league than we do good point guards.
2. Bill Russell - This guy looks like he’s going to break rebounding and defensive records assuming he stays healthy and sticks around for a while. His offensive numbers aren’t great but they aren’t awful, while the defense is absolutely incomparable. He’s won DPOY every year he’s been in the league, made two all-league first teams, and won an MVP.
3. Kawhi Leonard - Like Kyrie, positional scarcity also plays a major role here. I thought I’d be able to sneak in and grab Kawhi on a slightly below max offer, but BK was willing to commit and it looks like it will pay off. Kawhi has always been a stud on defense, but his offense has caught up (1.156 Pts/TSA) and he’s an elite rebounder from the wing. With small forward and shooting guard eligibility, he’s a guy who would make any team better right away.
4a and 4b. Stephen Jackson and Tracy McGrady - I couldn’t decide between these two. The scoring is fantastic among both but pretty much equall. T-Mac plays better defense and turns it over less. S-Jax is a better rebounder. Between these two and Kawhi, that pretty much does it for the elite wings in the league, though Sam Jones might be able to make a case for himself.
5. David Robinson - Currently leading the league in Pts/TSA at 1.27, The Admiral also ranks in the top 10 in points per game, rebounds per game, blocks per game, field goal percentage, and PER. Turnovers are an issue, but not enough of one that he’s not going to continue to be one of the top win share guys in the league.
1. Miami Heat: Anthony Davis - Duh. Eric’s feelings on AD are well known, so I’m not sure he’ll be as good in sim league as most consider him to be in real life, but it seems like Eric isn’t usually a huge fan of completely busting clear-cut 1.1s (RIP Kobe). Odin has made it pretty clear since draft position was announced that AD was going to go 1.1 and I’m not sure if anything has happened that would change that. Pairing him and Jerry Lucas together should be a really nice combination of young bigs for the next sim decade. Grade Prediction: B C C+ A- B
2. Harlem Globetrotters: Bradley Beal - Things could go lots of different ways at 1.2, but the Globes have the pick and have three solid bigs under 25, so I don’t see them going that direction. I also don’t think there’s another big with a really strong write-up. Lillard might be the pick here, but Eric has also described Lillard as “just not very good” before, so we’ll see what the grades look like. Beal’s write-up is strong, and I think the Globes might be looking for an upgrade on the wing. Beal should provide good defense and scoring with subpar rebounding. He could be the next good wing in a league with very few. Grade Prediction: C+ B+ C B+ D+
3. Orlando Magic (from Atlanta): Damian Lillard - Skrouse is looking for a backup wing and not much else from what I can tell. However, at first glance, I’m not sure any of the other wings are going to be a good fit here. MKG, Dion Waiters, Khris Middleton - none of them get you very excited. I could see Lillard going to the Magic and perhaps playing shooting guard, moving T-Mac to small forward and giving the Magic a great young lineup. Lillard is described as an offensive weapon with low TOs, so maybe he ends up at point guard and Eddie Jones gets the nod at starting shooting guard after the solid season he’s putting up. Grade prediction: C A- B+ D D
4. Chicago Bulls (from Orlando): Dion Waiters - This pick probably becomes dependent on grades as any of the remaining profile wings are big question marks. He looks like a prospect who will have solid athletic attributes and play good defense, but likely have a low inside. If that’s all that’s missing, it’s an easy fix, but I have a feeling that there won’t be a player available here that doesn’t have at least two major holes in their game. This is most likely a pick completely based on grades and not necessarily on IRL performance or profile write-up. Grade prediction: B- C C B- C
5. Harlem Globetrotters (from Tri-Cities): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - This one is really a shot in the dark. I have a feeling that this could go a lot of ways, and if a non-profile point guard comes out with decent grades, he could certainly be the pick here. I wouldn't be shocked if one of the 19-year-old point guards in the class - Tony Wroten or Marquis Teague - have decent grades and end up being the selection. I could also see Lillard being the pick at two since he's the only really legitimate PG prospect we know of at this point, and there look to be more serviceable wings available later. If so, I could see Beal going 1.3, and then someone like Khris Middleton being the pick here. But if Beal is too good to pass up and does end up going 1.2, getting a player who should end up as one of the best D/R wings in the league could be a very good pick here at 1.5. It's tough to grab guys this high who have such a low offensive ceiling, but with three bigs who can score, it wouldn't surprise me to see a Kawhi-lite get taken in the first half of the first round. Grade prediction: C C- C A C+
Title contenders
1. Atlanta Hawks - Pretty obvious one here. They just became the third team to three-peat and, despite losing a stud wing in Kawhi Leonard in a league that is lacking good ones, they still have the best record in the league. They have a three-headed offensive monster in Jonas, Polynice, and Stephen Jackson, and may have actually improved at point guard by replacing God Shammgod with Antonio Daniels. Fortunately for JHB, other players have picked up Kawhi’s offensive output and he found a cheap wing in Jerry Sloan to replace his defensive capabilities.
2. Dallas Mavericks - I think the slow start for Dallas was a fluke, but I think they have the pieces to give the Hawks a challenge - in fact, they may be the only team I think can legitimately challenge. Kyrie is the best player in the league, though Dallas may end up with a low seed after the slow start and his injury covering the next two sims. Tim Duncan’s offensive numbers are the worst of his career, so those should come up a bit. Durant just got +25 and should pick up some of the scoring slack with Kyrie out. He also has some of the best wing depth in the league with Durant, Klay, and Ron Artest.
3. Portland Trail_Blazers - The Blazers have a big duo that can keep up with the Hawks’ duo, though I don’t think they’re quite as good. A huge hole has been fixed with the addition of NVE at point guard, and Majic has a couple solid young wings in Elgin Baylor and Grant Hill. I don’t mean to rub salt in the wound, but the loss of Hopson here is a big loss. Having him as a super-sub instead of Wesley Johnson would be a big improvement.
4. Tri-Cities Blackhawks - Despite having the second best record in the league, I’m still not incredibly high on a team that has one well-known superstar in Kawhi Leonard and then four other players who have been mediocre or relative unknowns for most of their careers in Iverson, John Wall, Paul Silas, and Vucevic. Some DC shuffling is happening to see if some guys can act as depth at multiple positions, and if that works, I could see this team jumping up ahead of the Blazers, though I don’t see them surpassing the Mavericks, despite being 2-0 against them so far.
5. Harlem Globetrotters - I never count Ward out of a title run, as even when he goes through rebuild phases they seem to be more like reloads. Z-Bo and the young bigs look very good, the wings are solid, and depth is decent. Walt Hazzard isn’t currently cutting it at point guard, but the strength elsewhere may be enough to overcome that shortcoming.
Orlando Magic - It feels like this team should be better with T-Mac and Wilt, but Wilt is underperforming so far this season. Guy Rodgers was a great find at point guard, and Eddie Jones probably needs more minutes. I expected Gasol to be better out of the gate, and without him performing at an above-average level, I’m not sure this team has the second big to excel.
2025 Re-draft
1. Greg Oden - Call me biased if you want. Go ahead, do it. I dare you. Please don’t actually. Oden currently has far and away the best Pts/TSA among all rookies at 1.19 (Glen Davis is second with 1.11, KD third at 1.10). He’s also averaging 13.8 rebounds per 36, 26.8 points per 36, and 3.4 bleals per 36, which are all at or near the top among rookies. He also turns it over an impressive 1.3 times per 36, an attribute which has been detrimental for most young bigs lately. He’s also only 19 with tons of room for improvement. The only real weakness in Oden’s game after his +25 inside is the subpar free throw percentage.
2. Kevin Durant - Early returns aren’t particularly promising on Durant (per 36 numbers: 14.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 bleals and .462/.808/.375 shooting percentages) but the scoring numbers should all improve with the +25 inside he just received and natural growth since he’s only 19. I have a feeling Durant has really high potential and becomes a good player, but I have him behind Oden since Oden is already there.
3. Al Horford - I was expecting to debate between Oden and Horford at 1.2, but Horford came in with pretty meh grades, and the high passing indicated in his profile was a major turn-off. It looks like the grades were good in all the right places, however, as his defense (3.8 bleals per 36) and turnovers (1.2 per 36) are great. He needs some help on offense and the glass, and he may not have the highest potential based on his age, but he should be a very good player regardless. At least one that doesn’t hurt your team.
4. Marc Gasol - Gasol’s grades looked awesome, arguably better than Oden’s, so I really toiled with who to take at 1.2. I’m glad I ended up going with Oden, as Gasol is at just 1.05 pts/TSA and only his rebounding (12.3 per 36) stands out as good right now. Nothing looks particularly bad either, but I’m not sure his ceiling is going to be very high with the numbers he’s putting up now.
5. Glen Davis - Drafted all the way in the second round, things really fell off after the four names above. Most of the remaining players in the class aren’t even averaging 1.00 pts/TSA (Big Baby is at 1.11) and/or have two glaring holes that won’t be able to both be fixed in the lab. For Davis, the only major hole is turnovers. Perfect candidate for +25 handling.
Top 5 players
1. Kyrie Irving - It was really tough to list Kyrie over Bill Russell, but I’m taking him first overall in a fantasy draft because of positional scarcity. Kyrie is far and away the best point guard in the league and has been for years. No one else comes close. While Bill is putting up stupid D/R numbers, we see way more good bigs in the league than we do good point guards.
2. Bill Russell - This guy looks like he’s going to break rebounding and defensive records assuming he stays healthy and sticks around for a while. His offensive numbers aren’t great but they aren’t awful, while the defense is absolutely incomparable. He’s won DPOY every year he’s been in the league, made two all-league first teams, and won an MVP.
3. Kawhi Leonard - Like Kyrie, positional scarcity also plays a major role here. I thought I’d be able to sneak in and grab Kawhi on a slightly below max offer, but BK was willing to commit and it looks like it will pay off. Kawhi has always been a stud on defense, but his offense has caught up (1.156 Pts/TSA) and he’s an elite rebounder from the wing. With small forward and shooting guard eligibility, he’s a guy who would make any team better right away.
4a and 4b. Stephen Jackson and Tracy McGrady - I couldn’t decide between these two. The scoring is fantastic among both but pretty much equall. T-Mac plays better defense and turns it over less. S-Jax is a better rebounder. Between these two and Kawhi, that pretty much does it for the elite wings in the league, though Sam Jones might be able to make a case for himself.
5. David Robinson - Currently leading the league in Pts/TSA at 1.27, The Admiral also ranks in the top 10 in points per game, rebounds per game, blocks per game, field goal percentage, and PER. Turnovers are an issue, but not enough of one that he’s not going to continue to be one of the top win share guys in the league.
2026 draft predictions
1. Miami Heat: Anthony Davis - Duh. Eric’s feelings on AD are well known, so I’m not sure he’ll be as good in sim league as most consider him to be in real life, but it seems like Eric isn’t usually a huge fan of completely busting clear-cut 1.1s (RIP Kobe). Odin has made it pretty clear since draft position was announced that AD was going to go 1.1 and I’m not sure if anything has happened that would change that. Pairing him and Jerry Lucas together should be a really nice combination of young bigs for the next sim decade. Grade Prediction: B C C+ A- B
2. Harlem Globetrotters: Bradley Beal - Things could go lots of different ways at 1.2, but the Globes have the pick and have three solid bigs under 25, so I don’t see them going that direction. I also don’t think there’s another big with a really strong write-up. Lillard might be the pick here, but Eric has also described Lillard as “just not very good” before, so we’ll see what the grades look like. Beal’s write-up is strong, and I think the Globes might be looking for an upgrade on the wing. Beal should provide good defense and scoring with subpar rebounding. He could be the next good wing in a league with very few. Grade Prediction: C+ B+ C B+ D+
3. Orlando Magic (from Atlanta): Damian Lillard - Skrouse is looking for a backup wing and not much else from what I can tell. However, at first glance, I’m not sure any of the other wings are going to be a good fit here. MKG, Dion Waiters, Khris Middleton - none of them get you very excited. I could see Lillard going to the Magic and perhaps playing shooting guard, moving T-Mac to small forward and giving the Magic a great young lineup. Lillard is described as an offensive weapon with low TOs, so maybe he ends up at point guard and Eddie Jones gets the nod at starting shooting guard after the solid season he’s putting up. Grade prediction: C A- B+ D D
4. Chicago Bulls (from Orlando): Dion Waiters - This pick probably becomes dependent on grades as any of the remaining profile wings are big question marks. He looks like a prospect who will have solid athletic attributes and play good defense, but likely have a low inside. If that’s all that’s missing, it’s an easy fix, but I have a feeling that there won’t be a player available here that doesn’t have at least two major holes in their game. This is most likely a pick completely based on grades and not necessarily on IRL performance or profile write-up. Grade prediction: B- C C B- C
5. Harlem Globetrotters (from Tri-Cities): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - This one is really a shot in the dark. I have a feeling that this could go a lot of ways, and if a non-profile point guard comes out with decent grades, he could certainly be the pick here. I wouldn't be shocked if one of the 19-year-old point guards in the class - Tony Wroten or Marquis Teague - have decent grades and end up being the selection. I could also see Lillard being the pick at two since he's the only really legitimate PG prospect we know of at this point, and there look to be more serviceable wings available later. If so, I could see Beal going 1.3, and then someone like Khris Middleton being the pick here. But if Beal is too good to pass up and does end up going 1.2, getting a player who should end up as one of the best D/R wings in the league could be a very good pick here at 1.5. It's tough to grab guys this high who have such a low offensive ceiling, but with three bigs who can score, it wouldn't surprise me to see a Kawhi-lite get taken in the first half of the first round. Grade prediction: C C- C A C+
