Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 21:30:57 GMT
Who will win the 2020 Democratic nomination?
Thank you for joining us for this iteration of BK’s 1st annual 2020 Democratic Hot Reads. Before the summer I gave my last hot takes, showing the RCP polling average for each candidate, along with the likelihood that I think they would win the nomination on the right.
Last time:
This time:
Where I was wrong:
I was really down on Elizabeth Warren winning the nomination, because I assumed the democratic voters would be very wary of someone who can legit be told “You are like Rachel Dolezal” and have a real argument. However, she has promised free everything, and is a woman, so the liberal wings of the party, and some moderates, have started to coalesce around her banner.
I also thought Bernie Sanders would build more of a progressive coalition at the time, and while he has been peeling voters away from Joe Biden since the last few debates, Elizabeth Warren has been gaining more of Joe Biden’s detractors than he has. At this point it seems hard to imagine Bernie passing Warren up in the polls without a major even happening, or a surprise result in Iowa that is different than the polling would have you believe.
Kamala Harris has also gained less voters than I anticipated. If I had written this a few weeks ago, her polling numbers would be right on the mark, but she has lost a lot of support since the 2nd debate where she fell flat against a senile old man.
Where I was right:
In general, a lot of time has passed, and two debates, since the hot read in May, and only Tulsi Gabbard has broken through from the “Field” metric to polling above 1%. We’ve seen significant drops in support for Mayor Pete, and Beto as well, who we saw drop from 8.6 to 4.6% in the RCP polling average. Most of those votes have shifted to Elizabeth Warren.
Andrew Yang is a candidate that has a lot of steam lately. Only 10 candidates have qualified for the democrat debate this month, and Andrew Yang is one of those. While he is sure to get the least speaking time, his support continues to grow as his name recognition grows.
If I were to order the candidates from most likely to least likely to win the nomination at this point I would order them
Elizabeth Warren 32%
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Andrew Yang 13%
Kamala Harris 12%
Buttigieg 8%
Booker 3%
Field 1%
I think the odd man out here is Mayor Pete. It’s really a shame too, because he’s clearly the most intelligent and thoughtful candidate in the field, but will be dismissed because of his age. I hope to get to vote for him for President in the future.
At this point it seems like it is Elizabeth Warren’s race to lose. The Biden campaign hasn’t yet released their Q2 fundraising totals, but my guess is that they are dismal. People are starting to get hot feet too about how fucking old he is, as he keeps saying extremely dumb stuff, and is already having to be “controlled” and only out for certain hours to keep him from drooling on himself. That’s not a good look in the September before the election year, he will get demolished in the upcoming debates that are all way past his bedtime.
I’ve also ranked Bernie Sanders a lot lower, because it seems that the progressive voters he mobilized in 2016 have chosen Warren over him, and releasing competing policy proposals isn’t going to make a difference at this point. People know what Bernie is bringing to the table and they are choosing other people, it seems unlikely to think they would settle on him again.
An interesting side discussion to have is whether we think this pool of candidates will also hold our vice presidential nominee. If Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders were to win the nomination I think a person of color would be the vice presidential nominee. I assume Kamala Harris and Stacy Abrams would be both highly sought after picks for a Biden Administration. It’s more harder to predict who someone like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would pick. I think Bernie Sanders would likely pick Tulsi Gabbard as his nominee, as she is known for having resigned from her DNC leadership role to endorse him for president in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. I think Cory Booker could be a possible choice for a vice presidential role as well. If Kamala Harris were to win the nomination, I could see Beto being a possible choice as a vice presidential pick.
Thank you for joining us for this iteration of BK’s 1st annual 2020 Democratic Hot Reads. Before the summer I gave my last hot takes, showing the RCP polling average for each candidate, along with the likelihood that I think they would win the nomination on the right.
Last time:
Name Polling BillyRat
Biden 32.8 28
Sanders 19.4 21
Warren 8.4 10
Buttigie8.4 14
Harris 7.2 16
Beto 5.6 6
Booker 2.2 5
Klobucha1.4 4
Yang 1.4 9
Castro 1.2 1
Field <1 1This time:
Name Polling BillyRat
Biden 28.9 26
Sanders 17.1 15
Warren 16.5 32
Buttigie 4,6 8
Harris 7.0 12
Beto 2.4 1
Booker 2.4 3
Yang 2.5 13
Gabbard 1.4 1
Field <1 1Where I was wrong:
I was really down on Elizabeth Warren winning the nomination, because I assumed the democratic voters would be very wary of someone who can legit be told “You are like Rachel Dolezal” and have a real argument. However, she has promised free everything, and is a woman, so the liberal wings of the party, and some moderates, have started to coalesce around her banner.
I also thought Bernie Sanders would build more of a progressive coalition at the time, and while he has been peeling voters away from Joe Biden since the last few debates, Elizabeth Warren has been gaining more of Joe Biden’s detractors than he has. At this point it seems hard to imagine Bernie passing Warren up in the polls without a major even happening, or a surprise result in Iowa that is different than the polling would have you believe.
Kamala Harris has also gained less voters than I anticipated. If I had written this a few weeks ago, her polling numbers would be right on the mark, but she has lost a lot of support since the 2nd debate where she fell flat against a senile old man.
Where I was right:
In general, a lot of time has passed, and two debates, since the hot read in May, and only Tulsi Gabbard has broken through from the “Field” metric to polling above 1%. We’ve seen significant drops in support for Mayor Pete, and Beto as well, who we saw drop from 8.6 to 4.6% in the RCP polling average. Most of those votes have shifted to Elizabeth Warren.
Andrew Yang is a candidate that has a lot of steam lately. Only 10 candidates have qualified for the democrat debate this month, and Andrew Yang is one of those. While he is sure to get the least speaking time, his support continues to grow as his name recognition grows.
If I were to order the candidates from most likely to least likely to win the nomination at this point I would order them
Elizabeth Warren 32%
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Andrew Yang 13%
Kamala Harris 12%
Buttigieg 8%
Booker 3%
Field 1%
I think the odd man out here is Mayor Pete. It’s really a shame too, because he’s clearly the most intelligent and thoughtful candidate in the field, but will be dismissed because of his age. I hope to get to vote for him for President in the future.
At this point it seems like it is Elizabeth Warren’s race to lose. The Biden campaign hasn’t yet released their Q2 fundraising totals, but my guess is that they are dismal. People are starting to get hot feet too about how fucking old he is, as he keeps saying extremely dumb stuff, and is already having to be “controlled” and only out for certain hours to keep him from drooling on himself. That’s not a good look in the September before the election year, he will get demolished in the upcoming debates that are all way past his bedtime.
I’ve also ranked Bernie Sanders a lot lower, because it seems that the progressive voters he mobilized in 2016 have chosen Warren over him, and releasing competing policy proposals isn’t going to make a difference at this point. People know what Bernie is bringing to the table and they are choosing other people, it seems unlikely to think they would settle on him again.
Kamala Harris is ranked so highly, again, because of the chance I think she gets the votes through if there is a contested convention.
Also I really wanted to put Hillary Clinton on this list because of the convention chances, or even her just declaring her candidacy is tangible at this stage, but I felt weird doing it, but I would peg her at 3%. Definitely more likely than Beto.
______An interesting side discussion to have is whether we think this pool of candidates will also hold our vice presidential nominee. If Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders were to win the nomination I think a person of color would be the vice presidential nominee. I assume Kamala Harris and Stacy Abrams would be both highly sought after picks for a Biden Administration. It’s more harder to predict who someone like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would pick. I think Bernie Sanders would likely pick Tulsi Gabbard as his nominee, as she is known for having resigned from her DNC leadership role to endorse him for president in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. I think Cory Booker could be a possible choice for a vice presidential role as well. If Kamala Harris were to win the nomination, I could see Beto being a possible choice as a vice presidential pick.