Post by eric on Mar 15, 2018 19:19:08 GMT
Every NBA team that wins the championship will eventually not win the championship. Is there a way we can map the end of a team's window? Alright boys, let's take some pictures.
So what I did was I identified the six main players on a team that won multiple championships in a short span.
I calculated each of their ws/48 over the three year span (even if the player was not on the team all three years).
Then I divided each year's ws/48 by the average, and so saw if they were above or below their own average.
This approach stresses not how good a player is, but how good that player is relative to their own personal standard.
On the left are the Miami Heat from 2012-2014: LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers, Allen, Battier.
Their lines all go down.
It's not monotonic, in fact the team overall went up slightly in 2013.
But comparing 2014 to 2012 everyone's line went down.
They never won again.
.
On the right are the Golden State Warriors from 2016-2018: Klay, Curry, Draymond, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston.
Their lines all go down in the same way.
Will they ever win again?
.
I'm going to extend this approach to other multiple title winning teams in the past and see how it goes. Stay tuned!
So what I did was I identified the six main players on a team that won multiple championships in a short span.
I calculated each of their ws/48 over the three year span (even if the player was not on the team all three years).
Then I divided each year's ws/48 by the average, and so saw if they were above or below their own average.
This approach stresses not how good a player is, but how good that player is relative to their own personal standard.
On the left are the Miami Heat from 2012-2014: LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers, Allen, Battier.
Their lines all go down.
It's not monotonic, in fact the team overall went up slightly in 2013.
But comparing 2014 to 2012 everyone's line went down.
They never won again.
.
On the right are the Golden State Warriors from 2016-2018: Klay, Curry, Draymond, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston.
Their lines all go down in the same way.
Will they ever win again?
.
I'm going to extend this approach to other multiple title winning teams in the past and see how it goes. Stay tuned!
