Post by eric on Jun 8, 2019 19:48:47 GMT
Sometimes people say Bill Russell doesn't have great stats.
WRONG! You absolute CLOWN!
Let's look at players who had at least seven top-five WS regular seasons and post seasons:
Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Magic Johnson
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan
LeBron James
I've done this before and that was the list then too. I was curious how close other players were getting there so here are the actives with at least three of one or the other. This counts the current playoff rankings as set, but it doesn't really matter because only Siakam and maybe Marc Gasol can catch Giannis for #5.
So it's looking pretty safe. Nobody's exactly breathing down the 7/7 necks. Durant could have made it mildly interesting with a #5 playoffs this year but he hasn't had a top five regular season since 2016, which is what happens as players get old and start managing their load. Harden is probably the highest % chance because he'll almost certainly get a #7 regular season next year, but five Conference Finals or later runs is no never a gimme.
.
It's also interesting to me how predictive this measurement is of HoF, and it turns out the regular season is far stronger.
Of the 42 players with at least three top five regular seasons 31 are already in and the other 11 are LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, and Steph Curry. I would be shocked if any of them didn't make it. 100%
By comparison, of the similarly sized cohort of 45 with at least three top five post seasons there are additional locks like Kawhi Leonard, Dwyane Wade, and Paul Pierce, but also the other names of Chauncey Billups, Draymond Green, Ben Wallace, Gus Williams, and Horace Grant. For what it's worth basketball-reference lists their HoF chances at 84% 27% 45% 11% 15% - while Billups and Wallace are both on the ballot this year and you never know how Draymond's career will shake out, ol' Gus and Horace are clearly not getting in so at best it's only a paltry 96%. To be fair, Ben and Draymond have 0 top five regular seasons between them and Gus and Horace only have one apiece, so adding a minimum 2 top five regular seasons requirements guarantees us 100% if Chauncey gets in, but as shown above we could just as easily do minimum 3 top five regular seasons and ignore the playoffs entirely.
Makes you wonder.
WRONG! You absolute CLOWN!
Let's look at players who had at least seven top-five WS regular seasons and post seasons:
Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Magic Johnson
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan
LeBron James
I've done this before and that was the list then too. I was curious how close other players were getting there so here are the actives with at least three of one or the other. This counts the current playoff rankings as set, but it doesn't really matter because only Siakam and maybe Marc Gasol can catch Giannis for #5.
reg po name
0 4 Draymond Green
5 4 Kevin Durant
2 4 Kawhi Leonard
7 3 Dirk Nowitzki
3 3 Steph Curry
6 2 James Harden
6 1 Chris Paul
3 0 Russell WestbrookSo it's looking pretty safe. Nobody's exactly breathing down the 7/7 necks. Durant could have made it mildly interesting with a #5 playoffs this year but he hasn't had a top five regular season since 2016, which is what happens as players get old and start managing their load. Harden is probably the highest % chance because he'll almost certainly get a #7 regular season next year, but five Conference Finals or later runs is no never a gimme.
.
It's also interesting to me how predictive this measurement is of HoF, and it turns out the regular season is far stronger.
Of the 42 players with at least three top five regular seasons 31 are already in and the other 11 are LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, and Steph Curry. I would be shocked if any of them didn't make it. 100%
By comparison, of the similarly sized cohort of 45 with at least three top five post seasons there are additional locks like Kawhi Leonard, Dwyane Wade, and Paul Pierce, but also the other names of Chauncey Billups, Draymond Green, Ben Wallace, Gus Williams, and Horace Grant. For what it's worth basketball-reference lists their HoF chances at 84% 27% 45% 11% 15% - while Billups and Wallace are both on the ballot this year and you never know how Draymond's career will shake out, ol' Gus and Horace are clearly not getting in so at best it's only a paltry 96%. To be fair, Ben and Draymond have 0 top five regular seasons between them and Gus and Horace only have one apiece, so adding a minimum 2 top five regular seasons requirements guarantees us 100% if Chauncey gets in, but as shown above we could just as easily do minimum 3 top five regular seasons and ignore the playoffs entirely.
Makes you wonder.