Post by eric on Jun 8, 2019 0:42:05 GMT
Starting next year I'm going to post sim by sim updated title odds. Here's how it would have looked this season...
sim 12
(note that these numbers are different than what I posted in sim 12 because i messed up the math then)
.
playoff round 1 sim 1
(note that the Hornets still had a nonzero chance of winning the title, but one that was less than 1 in 2,000 so it was rounded to zero)
.
playoff round 1 sim 2
(note how each team to win has a check mark for the first round)
(note also how the Globes' chances go down even though they won because the better Magic who had been slightly unlikely to come back from 1-2 in fact did)
.
playoff round 2 sim 1
(note nothing remarkable, both favorites take 2-1 leads and so increase their chances of winning...)
.
playoff round 2 sim 2
(...and having won their respective division finals the two finalists get checkmarks in that column too...)
.
playoff finals sim 1
(...and with a 2-1 lead the globetrotters are even heavier favorites...)
.
playoff finals final
(...and it's a wrap)
sim 12
Chp 2R 1R
.603 .779 .967 Globetrotters
.001 .007 .034 Hornets
.061 .127 .560 Mavericks
.033 .080 .437 Bullets
.095 .307 .621 Trail Blazers
.030 .141 .376 Pistons
.151 .414 .685 Magic
.027 .130 .312 Bulls(note that these numbers are different than what I posted in sim 12 because i messed up the math then)
.
playoff round 1 sim 1
Chp 2R 1R
.649 .798 .998 Globetrotters
.000 .000 .002 Hornets
.080 .151 .728 Mavericks
.021 .044 .271 Bullets
.015 .051 .096 Trail Blazers
.076 .378 .903 Pistons
.107 .303 .453 Magic
.052 .262 .544 Bulls(note that the Hornets still had a nonzero chance of winning the title, but one that was less than 1 in 2,000 so it was rounded to zero)
.
playoff round 1 sim 2
Chp 2R 1R
.600 .788 √ Globetrotters
- - - Hornets
.096 .206 √ Mavericks
- - - Bullets
- - - Trail Blazers
.064 .317 √ Pistons
.240 .680 √ Magic
- - - Bulls(note how each team to win has a check mark for the first round)
(note also how the Globes' chances go down even though they won because the better Magic who had been slightly unlikely to come back from 1-2 in fact did)
.
playoff round 2 sim 1
Chp 2R 1R
.643 .867 √ Globetrotters
- - - Hornets
.058 .130 √ Mavericks
- - - Bullets
- - - Trail Blazers
.035 .196 √ Pistons
.264 .803 √ Magic
- - - Bulls(note nothing remarkable, both favorites take 2-1 leads and so increase their chances of winning...)
.
playoff round 2 sim 2
Chp 2R 1R
.712 √ √ Globetrotters
- - - Hornets
- - √ Mavericks
- - - Bullets
- - - Trail Blazers
- - √ Pistons
.288 √ √ Magic
- - - Bulls(...and having won their respective division finals the two finalists get checkmarks in that column too...)
.
playoff finals sim 1
Chp 2R 1R
.822 √ √ Globetrotters
- - - Hornets
- - √ Mavericks
- - - Bullets
- - - Trail Blazers
- - √ Pistons
.178 √ √ Magic
- - - Bulls(...and with a 2-1 lead the globetrotters are even heavier favorites...)
.
playoff finals final
Chp 2R 1R
√ √ √ Globetrotters
- - - Hornets
- - √ Mavericks
- - - Bullets
- - - Trail Blazers
- - √ Pistons
- √ √ Magic
- - - Bulls(...and it's a wrap)
