Post Weighted Lotto (244 views)

[eric]

As announced at the time of the lotto change, "If there has been no improvement in # of GMs in the league by the 2022 draft, we will go back to unweighted lotto."

Some people have asked for a wheel instead of the unweighted lotto, which is fine by me. Here is how I would implement it.

Take the IRL 30 team NBA wheel:



Assign teams slots with the unweighted lotto applied to the 2021 standings scaled by the number of teams in the league, so 1 is 1, 12 (or however many teams we have) is 30, and so on in between.

Whenever an expansion team joins they get an unoccupied slot in that year's draft assigned at random.
Whenever a team is contracted their slot is vacated.

The actual draft simply skips any vacated slots.

This means that a team scheduled to have the #1 pick will always have it regardless of other contraction/expansion.
However, a team could be scheduled to have the closest non skip pick to #1 and lose it to an expansion team.

.

Illustration:

The unweighted lotto and standings give us an initial order of...

cougars
heat
pistons
lakers
hornets
buccaneers
bulls
bullets
mavericks
trail blazers
magic
globetrotters
...which works out to wheel slots of...

1 CAR
4 MIA
6 DET
9 LAL
12 CHA
14 NOB
17 CHI
19 WAS
22 DAL
25 POR
27 ORL
30 HAR
.

If nothing changes, the next three draft orders are...

CHA NOB DAL
LAL CHI WAS
CHI WAS HAR
NOB DAL POR
DAL ORL ORL
WAS POR MIA
HAR HAR DET
POR CAR CAR
ORL DET CHA
DET MIA LAL
MIA LAL CHI
CAR CHA NOB
.

Hypothetically, suppose Tim quits and the Celtics join next year. The Celtics are randomly assigned 21 which changes the order to...

CHA
LAL
NOB
DAL
WAS
HAR
BOS*
POR
ORL
DET
MIA
CAR
The Bulls slot would have gone 17 -> 8 and been ahead of Buccaneers 14 -> 11, but since they contracted they are skipped. Similarly, the Globetrotters go 30 -> 19 and so are ahead of the Celtics 21, but the Trail Blazers only went 25 -> 23 so they aren't.

The next year, the Pelicans join and are randomly assigned 12 (note that even though the Hornets started with 12 they have now wheeled 12 -> 1 -> 30 and no other team happens to be occupying 12). The third and fourth year order is now...

NOB NOP
WAS DAL
DAL WAS
NOP HAR
ORL BOS
POR POR
BOS ORL
HAR MIA
CAR DET
DET CAR
MIA CHA
LAL LAL
CHA NOB
Note how the Buccaneers were scheduled for the #2 pick but since that's still the first non skip they get the #1 in year three, but the Mavericks who were scheduled for the first non skip pick at #3 in year four get jumped by the Pelicans.

[Majic]

who actually wants unweighted?

think we should start there.

[Majic]

feel like we should first vote whether we want to change from current.

if the vote is Yes for change, we can then vote for what we change to.

[TimPig]

Wheel sounds kind of fun.

For those of us bad at following along with all of this, would you be able to keep an updated list of who has what picks for the next 5 seasons, since that is how far in advance we can trade picks?

[eric]

Jun 4, 2019 17:54:48 GMT Majic said:

feel like we should first vote whether we want to change from current.

if the vote is Yes for change, we can then vote for what we change to.

moving to weighted at all was contingent on a finite window, as stated at the time. we are not going back on our word. the only outcomes are

1. more GMs in the league
2. change from the weighted lotto

i anticipated (2) to be back to unweighted lotto, but wheel would satisfy the disincentivize tanking parameter too, and it's easily workable on my end, so if people prefer wheel to unweighted that would be fine too.

[eric]

Jun 4, 2019 18:21:31 GMT TimPig said:

Wheel sounds kind of fun.

For those of us bad at following along with all of this, would you be able to keep an updated list of who has what picks for the next 5 seasons, since that is how far in advance we can trade picks?

yeah for sure, i'll probably keep one post up to date with all five years and then on sim 1 (i.e. after any potential expansion/contraction) post that specific year into the relevant draft board.

[wee2dee]

i'm all for mixing it up a bit for at least awhile to see what happens.

[Majic]

Jun 4, 2019 18:21:55 GMT eric said:

Jun 4, 2019 17:54:48 GMT Majic said:

feel like we should first vote whether we want to change from current.

if the vote is Yes for change, we can then vote for what we change to.

moving to weighted at all was contingent on a finite window, as stated at the time. we are not going back on our word. the only outcomes are

1. more GMs in the league
2. change from the weighted lotto

i anticipated (2) to be back to unweighted lotto, but wheel would satisfy the disincentivize tanking parameter too, and it's easily workable on my end, so if people prefer wheel to unweighted that would be fine too.

who is the "we" is that agreed to the idea of going back? I feel like multiple people were asking to go back to unweighted and you chose to set a finite limit on it based on a factor completely unrelated to it.

this is why i would prefer we vote on whether we as a collective want to change the format before just deciding on a new format.

[eric]

Jun 4, 2019 18:40:27 GMT Majic said:

Jun 4, 2019 18:21:55 GMT eric said:

moving to weighted at all was contingent on a finite window, as stated at the time. we are not going back on our word. the only outcomes are

1. more GMs in the league
2. change from the weighted lotto

i anticipated (2) to be back to unweighted lotto, but wheel would satisfy the disincentivize tanking parameter too, and it's easily workable on my end, so if people prefer wheel to unweighted that would be fine too.

who is the "we" is that agreed to the idea of going back? I feel like multiple people were asking to go back to unweighted and you chose to set a finite limit on it based on a factor completely unrelated to it.

this is why i would prefer we vote on whether we as a collective want to change the format before just deciding on a new format.

the case made over and over for the weighted lotto is that it would increase GM interest
the case made over and over against the weighted lotto is that it would encourage tanking

we've got the tanking, we don't have the higher GM interest, and we had an agreement on when we'd make that measurement. things could change by 2022 draft, but better to know ahead of time which way we're gonna go.

if you want to start a new poll, go ahead, no one's stopping you.

[bk]

Jun 4, 2019 18:21:55 GMT eric said:

Jun 4, 2019 17:54:48 GMT Majic said:

feel like we should first vote whether we want to change from current.

if the vote is Yes for change, we can then vote for what we change to.

moving to weighted at all was contingent on a finite window, as stated at the time. we are not going back on our word. the only outcomes are

1. more GMs in the league
2. change from the weighted lotto

i anticipated (2) to be back to unweighted lotto, but wheel would satisfy the disincentivize tanking parameter too, and it's easily workable on my end, so if people prefer wheel to unweighted that would be fine too.

you suck

sseriously

[Mike]

[skrouse]

I am disappointed league