Post by eric on May 8, 2019 20:07:18 GMT
FIRST OF ALL, what if players who shoot more close to the rim draw more free throws in the first place? If those players tend to be bad free throw shooters we'll have an occluded variable, and we don't want another Helsinki episode of 1919.
So first let's look at stats.nba.com's breakdown of how many of a player's field goal attempts occurred within ten feet and how many free throw attempts they drew per overall field goal attempt, requiring a minimum of 400 field goal attempts to be included.
Yes! Pretty much yes. We can see some players draw fouls more or less than their mere rim distance would indicate, though, is there a correlation between their free throw percentage and that gap?
Kiiiind of. At the edges we see Thad Young and Rajon Rondo draw way fewer free throw attempts than they oughta and are middling free throw shooters (64%). On the other hand, Rudy Gobert draws way way more than he oughta and he's at 64% too. On the other hand, the rest of the top six are Joel Embiid (80%) Danilo Gallinari (90%) James Harden (88%) Giannis Antetokounmpo (73%) and Lou Williams (88%). On the other hand, it certainly seems like bigger names tend towards the "more" side - Durant, Kawhi, Butler, PG13, Blake, CP3, LeBron, Westbrook are all at least .05 higher than you'd expect from their shot distribution alone. The biggest name I see on the "less" side is maybe Al Horford? Clint Capela? Klay Thompson?
Here's the full list:
So first let's look at stats.nba.com's breakdown of how many of a player's field goal attempts occurred within ten feet and how many free throw attempts they drew per overall field goal attempt, requiring a minimum of 400 field goal attempts to be included.
Yes! Pretty much yes. We can see some players draw fouls more or less than their mere rim distance would indicate, though, is there a correlation between their free throw percentage and that gap?
Kiiiind of. At the edges we see Thad Young and Rajon Rondo draw way fewer free throw attempts than they oughta and are middling free throw shooters (64%). On the other hand, Rudy Gobert draws way way more than he oughta and he's at 64% too. On the other hand, the rest of the top six are Joel Embiid (80%) Danilo Gallinari (90%) James Harden (88%) Giannis Antetokounmpo (73%) and Lou Williams (88%). On the other hand, it certainly seems like bigger names tend towards the "more" side - Durant, Kawhi, Butler, PG13, Blake, CP3, LeBron, Westbrook are all at least .05 higher than you'd expect from their shot distribution alone. The biggest name I see on the "less" side is maybe Al Horford? Clint Capela? Klay Thompson?
Here's the full list:
10- pct FTA/FGA FT% gap PLAYER
76% .161 64% -.200 Thaddeus Young
49% .083 64% -.187 Rajon Rondo
71% .180 74% -.164 Elfrid Payton
87% .237 63% -.162 JaVale McGee
84% .230 72% -.158 Robin Lopez
45% .111 76% -.144 E'Twaun Moore
37% .088 78% -.140 T.J. McConnell
35% .085 73% -.137 Kevin Huerter
53% .151 75% -.132 Miles Bridges
39% .105 42% -.128 Lonzo Ball
56% .168 79% -.126 Nikola Vucevic
24% .059 77% -.124 Quinn Cook
43% .127 76% -.123 Ish Smith
46% .136 80% -.121 Kris Dunn
28% .078 70% -.120 Cory Joseph
44% .131 82% -.120 Al Horford
50% .155 76% -.119 Nemanja Bjelica
68% .217 75% -.116 Deandre Ayton
27% .079 67% -.114 Mike Scott
48% .154 79% -.112 Bobby Portis
29% .090 85% -.112 Malik Beasley
67% .221 64% -.109 DeAndre' Bembry
29% .092 50% -.108 Dion Waiters
86% .288 79% -.106 Enes Kanter
25% .082 86% -.105 Avery Bradley
45% .153 58% -.103 OG Anunoby
34% .115 80% -.102 Monte Morris
59% .203 93% -.100 Malcolm Brogdon
47% .163 74% -.098 Frank Jackson
19% .070 84% -.096 Danny Green
44% .156 72% -.095 Rodney McGruder
41% .145 78% -.095 Stanley Johnson
47% .167 70% -.095 Jake Layman
49% .183 63% -.085 Justise Winslow
99% .357 64% -.085 Clint Capela
55% .205 78% -.085 Rodions Kurucs
39% .155 84% -.079 Tyus Jones
32% .132 77% -.078 Marvin Williams
22% .099 88% -.077 Bryn Forbes
39% .163 84% -.073 Jordan Clarkson
46% .188 83% -.071 Norman Powell
23% .113 69% -.069 PJ Tucker
37% .161 77% -.067 Will Barton
38% .166 53% -.067 Austin Rivers
42% .178 83% -.067 Joe Harris
24% .118 73% -.066 Terrance Ferguson
29% .135 78% -.065 D'Angelo Russell
29% .140 78% -.062 Terry Rozier
48% .203 81% -.062 T.J. Warren
47% .202 76% -.059 Serge Ibaka
45% .195 71% -.059 Dorian Finney-Smith
33% .159 81% -.057 Evan Fournier
20% .113 82% -.056 Klay Thompson
49% .215 81% -.056 Dewayne Dedmon
49% .212 79% -.055 JaMychal Green
31% .153 71% -.054 Joe Ingles
86% .343 55% -.053 Willie Cauley-Stein
70% .289 67% -.051 Shaquille Harrison
15% .101 80% -.051 Iman Shumpert
33% .162 78% -.051 Eric Gordon
91% .361 50% -.051 Steven Adams
18% .112 85% -.050 Seth Curry
26% .142 89% -.050 Buddy Hield
42% .197 82% -.048 Rudy Gay
19% .117 84% -.048 Luke Kennard
47% .216 69% -.047 Draymond Green
40% .190 77% -.047 Markieff Morris
29% .154 83% -.047 CJ McCollum
39% .190 73% -.045 Wayne Selden
46% .212 86% -.045 Derrick Rose
63% .273 78% -.045 Thomas Bryant
80% .330 76% -.044 Taj Gibson
14% .107 80% -.044 Wayne Ellington
31% .163 78% -.043 Justin Jackson
44% .208 69% -.043 Shelvin Mack
44% .212 73% -.040 Jalen Brunson
60% .269 79% -.039 Delon Wright
50% .234 77% -.039 Jrue Holiday
86% .357 45% -.039 Hassan Whiteside
22% .141 71% -.037 Vince Carter
52% .242 72% -.037 Tyreke Evans
15% .118 84% -.037 Gerald Green
21% .136 90% -.036 Justin Holiday
47% .227 77% -.036 Derrick White
48% .230 75% -.036 Kyle Kuzma
30% .169 68% -.036 Lance Stephenson
62% .280 72% -.035 Larry Nance Jr.
31% .172 69% -.035 Josh Hart
27% .158 87% -.034 Nicolas Batum
24% .149 81% -.034 Otto Porter Jr.
74% .320 76% -.033 John Collins
51% .243 75% -.033 Eric Bledsoe
21% .140 74% -.032 Damyean Dotson
34% .187 84% -.031 Doug McDermott
53% .255 69% -.029 Caris LeVert
36% .197 87% -.028 Kyrie Irving
50% .246 71% -.028 Jabari Parker
40% .216 88% -.024 Dario Saric
32% .188 83% -.024 Bogdan Bogdanovic
28% .174 88% -.023 Malik Monk
56% .269 71% -.023 Jerami Grant
39% .211 84% -.023 Collin Sexton
77% .344 79% -.022 Jonas Valanciunas
47% .239 71% -.021 Evan Turner
91% .392 59% -.021 Andre Drummond
33% .192 84% -.021 Fred VanVleet
47% .240 63% -.021 Dennis Smith Jr.
26% .169 84% -.021 Brook Lopez
70% .320 78% -.020 Pascal Siakam
61% .292 82% -.019 Nikola Jokic
18% .143 86% -.018 Reggie Bullock
31% .190 85% -.018 Jamal Murray
37% .210 81% -.017 Mikal Bridges
49% .253 67% -.017 Josh Jackson
14% .132 88% -.017 Davis Bertans
38% .214 78% -.016 Cedi Osman
41% .226 80% -.016 Gary Harris
47% .246 76% -.016 Mario Hezonja
43% .234 70% -.016 Trey Lyles
35% .206 82% -.016 Dennis Schroder
37% .220 86% -.010 Jayson Tatum
44% .242 73% -.009 Aaron Gordon
37% .221 81% -.009 Jonathan Isaac
30% .195 82% -.008 Taurean Prince
18% .155 85% -.008 Patty Mills
41% .233 78% -.007 Goran Dragic
20% .164 84% -.006 Langston Galloway
38% .226 83% -.005 Trey Burke
45% .255 66% -.002 Jaylen Brown
42% .245 87% -.002 Tobias Harris
68% .334 77% -.001 Jaren Jackson Jr.
49% .268 73% .000 Tony Parker
41% .243 71% .000 Dwyane Wade
11% .140 88% .000 Terrence Ross
35% .223 79% .003 Trevor Ariza
45% .259 81% .005 Donovan Mitchell
40% .245 70% .005 Andrew Wiggins
28% .205 84% .008 Marcus Morris
16% .167 81% .010 Landry Shamet
39% .245 87% .010 Lauri Markkanen
51% .290 77% .013 Kelly Oubre Jr.
30% .217 75% .013 Garrett Temple
64% .333 65% .014 Alex Len
32% .225 86% .014 Reggie Jackson
31% .225 84% .016 Khris Middleton
42% .266 89% .019 Jeremy Lamb
44% .272 80% .019 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
17% .180 90% .020 Marco Belinelli
74% .376 64% .020 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
38% .253 73% .020 Kent Bazemore
38% .251 77% .021 Emmanuel Mudiay
39% .258 74% .021 Myles Turner
56% .315 75% .022 Zach Collins
34% .241 75% .022 Tyler Johnson
7% .147 79% .023 Darius Miller
71% .368 68% .023 Derrick Favors
29% .225 86% .024 Josh Richardson
35% .247 72% .025 Kevin Knox
29% .228 81% .026 Marcus Smart
5% .151 82% .031 Kyle Korver
22% .209 87% .032 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
28% .231 88% .033 Rodney Hood
23% .214 92% .035 Stephen Curry
39% .271 82% .035 Harrison Barnes
45% .292 87% .035 Al-Farouq Aminu
26% .229 85% .037 Nikola Mirotic
29% .240 73% .038 Victor Oladipo
48% .302 82% .038 Tomas Satoransky
59% .342 84% .038 Karl-Anthony Towns
46% .297 82% .039 Alec Burks
44% .290 81% .039 Bojan Bogdanovic
34% .258 78% .040 Patrick Beverley
67% .371 69% .040 Marvin Bagley III
88% .446 60% .043 Ben Simmons
88% .448 56% .046 Mason Plumlee
48% .312 85% .046 LaMarcus Aldridge
28% .244 87% .048 Ryan Arcidiacono
34% .267 84% .048 Kemba Walker
77% .416 71% .051 Domantas Sabonis
59% .355 71% .051 Noah Vonleh
23% .234 81% .055 Wesley Matthews
90% .466 64% .055 Montrezl Harrell
35% .278 81% .055 Bradley Beal
50% .330 83% .057 Zach LaVine
26% .247 72% .058 Jae Crowder
82% .442 77% .061 Jusuf Nurkic
42% .306 66% .062 Russell Westbrook
45% .317 70% .062 John Wall
37% .291 76% .063 Marc Gasol
43% .319 73% .069 Josh Okogie
40% .309 87% .071 D.J. Augustin
58% .374 73% .073 Paul Millsap
35% .294 83% .073 Gordon Hayward
91% .489 71% .077 Jarrett Allen
35% .300 89% .079 Jeff Green
24% .263 83% .080 Kyle Lowry
31% .288 83% .082 Darren Collison
82% .465 73% .084 Bam Adebayo
53% .368 80% .086 Jeff Teague
43% .336 83% .087 DeMar DeRozan
41% .330 83% .087 Trae Young
26% .278 84% .088 Tim Hardaway Jr.
73% .447 73% .097 Julius Randle
36% .328 82% .103 Kelly Olynyk
12% .248 89% .106 JJ Redick
31% .312 86% .106 Ricky Rubio
50% .378 73% .107 De'Aaron Fox
48% .382 67% .114 LeBron James
19% .282 86% .114 Chris Paul
35% .335 91% .115 Damian Lillard
10% .251 85% .115 Jamal Crawford
29% .317 83% .117 Shabazz Napier
58% .422 79% .121 Anthony Davis
53% .410 75% .128 Blake Griffin
49% .396 67% .129 Brandon Ingram
29% .335 84% .136 Paul George
44% .388 84% .136 Jeremy Lin
35% .362 87% .141 Devin Booker
34% .363 84% .145 Mike Conley
45% .404 85% .148 Jimmy Butler
36% .377 85% .152 Kawhi Leonard
97% .592 70% .157 DeAndre Jordan
41% .409 71% .168 Luka Doncic
28% .366 89% .170 Kevin Durant
46% .430 81% .171 Spencer Dinwiddie
70% .523 77% .181 Dwight Powell
43% .431 80% .182 Allonzo Trier
36% .421 76% .197 DeMarre Carroll
37% .426 88% .199 Lou Williams
70% .550 73% .207 Giannis Antetokounmpo
39% .449 88% .214 James Harden
31% .459 90% .251 Danilo Gallinari
52% .541 80% .260 Joel Embiid
97% .733 64% .300 Rudy Gobert