Post by eric on May 7, 2019 17:21:14 GMT
(moving five year averages)
(only counting MVPs awarded in the Finals MVP era of 1969-present)
(this text is not italicized)
MVPs tend to be awarded earlier in a player's career than Finals MVPs: averages are season 7.5 vs. 8.2.
The Finals MVP is also a broader distribution with a plateau from year 6 to 13 compared to 5 to 10 for MVP.
Only twice has the MVP been awarded to a player in season 13 or later, and they happened in back to back seasons (Jordan 98 season 13 Malone 99 season 14). By comparison seven Finals MVPs have gone to such a player, most recently 2016 LeBron (season 13).
This is season 16 for LeBron - it will be historically unprecedented for him to win another Finals MVP or MVP.
This is season 12 for Durant and season 11 for Curry (and Westbrook) - they are right at the tail end of the MVP curve but still have a couple Finals MVP years left.
If the Finals MVP this year is in season 10 or later (Durant, Curry, Harden) it will be the fifth such Finals MVP in a row, tying the longest such span in the history of the award which took place from 1994 to 1998 (Hakeem, Hakeem, Michael, Jeffrey, Jordan).