Post by Deleted on May 3, 2019 20:51:39 GMT
For the democrats this election cycle, defeating trump is the be-all end-all goal in most people’s minds. The question then lies, in how to get there. In February, 56% of democrats said they would rather have a candidate that they don’t agree with on most issues, but who was stronger against Trump; as opposed 33% who gravitated to a candidate they agreed with but who would have a difficult time defeating Trump. 11% of respondents certainly have some type of brain damage.
So, where does this leave us?
In last times 2020 Democratic Nomination Hot Reads, we saw that Joe Biden was on top of the pack for the moment, mostly because of his ‘electability’. So where does that stand up against Trump? Well, we have a new poll released today that will shed some light on this. This poll puts Beto O’Rourke leading Trump by 10 points in a general election matchup. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are TIED with a 6 point lead over Trump. Harris and Buttigieg each squeak by in a general election vote total of 3-5% points, with Warren within the margin of error with a 1% victory over Trump.
Common sense, and sentiment among most voters and pundits, is that the election is not nearly in the bag as these statistics suggest. Why is this? Well, the reason, quite simply, is voter’s do not approve of the job Trump is doing as president at the current moment.
In the poll we just mentioned where Biden beats Trump, there is one metric that will shake out who votes for whom even stronger than party allegience: Trump Approval Rating. Of voters who “approve” of the job Trump is doing as president, they vote for him in a general election with a 92% to 5% gap. In the same vein, Biden won the votes of people who dissaprove of Trump with a 95% to 3% gap.
Trump currently sits at a 44% approval rating, with a 53% disapproval rating.
We saw the same results in the 2018 elections, where Democratic House candidates won 90% of those who disapproved of Trump, while Republicans took 88% of those who approved. Combining these with the fact that his approval-disapproval spread was 45-55% during the election, means the Republicans lost control of the house.
Oh, but wait, you say. What about in 2016? Trump’s approval numbers have been just as bad since before the election, but yet he won a large number of votes, and a CRUSHING electoral college victory. Yay verily, his “favorable” to “unfavorable” rating before the election stood at a scant 38-60 in November.
So where’s the rub?
He was able to win 95% of the votes of those who held a favorable view of him, while Hillary Clinton was only able to nab 77% of those who held an unfavorable view of him.
During the election, Clinton’s favorability rating was at 43%, with her unfavorable rating at 55%. There was a large number of voters who disapproved of both candidates (18%), and he won the election thanks to them.
If the democratic party wants to win, and they want to elect the most “electable” candidate, they shouldn’t look much further past the favorability rating, or at least the “projected” favorability rating you could assume a candidate would have after a barrage of negative attacks. This “projected” notion is valuable, because for example, Bernie Sanders has an extremely high approval rating, that is likely to slip after moderate and independent voters get a better view of some of his past positions and statements on a variety of things.
Even Joe Biden’s net favorability has dropped from +27 in late 2017, to only +10 in the last few weeks according to a recent CNN poll.
It seems the goal here might be to nominate someone who everyone doesn't hate.
Who knew?
