Post by eric on Jan 19, 2019 15:00:10 GMT
Entering the season with a career 42 3P% and never having a season below 40%, Klay sits at 37% so far this year, which is just into statistically significant territory with a 2.1 z-score.
Another notable difference is that after shooting 26% of his threes from the corners his first six years in the league, last year he took only 18% and so far this year 12%(!), even though his 44 3P% from the corners is right in line with his career 46% mark. Could the lower 3P% be explained by simply taking geographically harder threes?
No.
basketball-reference.com gives us overall 3P%, 3P% from the corners, and % of 3P taken from the corners, and it is necessarily the case that 3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners + 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere = overall 3P%, so to get out the 3P% from elsewhere we can just do...
3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners + 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere = overall 3P%
3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners - overall 3P% = - 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere
(3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners - overall 3P%) / (- % taken from elsewhere) = 3P% from elsewhere
...and when we plug that value back in to a hypothetical Klay Thompson 2019 where he still took 26% of his threes from the corners, he only gets bumped up to an overall 38%.
It certainly doesn't help that he's taking less from the corners, but the main issue is that he's making non-corner threes at a mere 36% after a career of 41%.
.
Free throws and long twos can be useful as peripherals for shooting ability, but in this case they don't offer much help clearing up the mystery: his 81 FT% is well below his 85% career par but not to a statistically significant degree, and his 48% on long twos is actually above his career 45% mark.
Another notable difference is that after shooting 26% of his threes from the corners his first six years in the league, last year he took only 18% and so far this year 12%(!), even though his 44 3P% from the corners is right in line with his career 46% mark. Could the lower 3P% be explained by simply taking geographically harder threes?
No.
basketball-reference.com gives us overall 3P%, 3P% from the corners, and % of 3P taken from the corners, and it is necessarily the case that 3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners + 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere = overall 3P%, so to get out the 3P% from elsewhere we can just do...
3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners + 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere = overall 3P%
3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners - overall 3P% = - 3P% from elsewhere * % taken from elsewhere
(3P% from the corners * % taken from the corners - overall 3P%) / (- % taken from elsewhere) = 3P% from elsewhere
...and when we plug that value back in to a hypothetical Klay Thompson 2019 where he still took 26% of his threes from the corners, he only gets bumped up to an overall 38%.
It certainly doesn't help that he's taking less from the corners, but the main issue is that he's making non-corner threes at a mere 36% after a career of 41%.
.
Free throws and long twos can be useful as peripherals for shooting ability, but in this case they don't offer much help clearing up the mystery: his 81 FT% is well below his 85% career par but not to a statistically significant degree, and his 48% on long twos is actually above his career 45% mark.
