Pig Proclaims!: Redrafting the lottery in greatest draft of all time (2006)
Nov 21, 2018 17:35:26 GMT
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Post by TimPig on Nov 21, 2018 17:35:26 GMT
h/t jhb for his More Fun With Win Shares article. I think we all agreed 2006 was the best draft year, but his article provides the numbers to back that up.
Draft grades are first. Current grades are in parentheses.
1. Charlotte Hornets
Original Pick - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 300 22 B C D+ A- B- C (B+ C D+ A- B C) +2
Redraft Pick - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 300 22 B C D+ A- B- C (B+ C D+ A- B C) +2
After this class' Rookie TC, it looked like Jay Williams may have been deserving of 1.1 after he went something like +6 compared to Yao's +2 if my memory serves me correctly. Fecta said as much, saying after TC he wished he would've drafted Jay #eliteGM. Looking back, Fecta made the right choice at 1.1, drafting the player who would go on to have the greatest rookie season 5.0 has seen, and one who has averaged 1.23 pts/tsa for his career, which is GOAT status. Not only that, but Yao has had led all centers in win shares in each of his first three seasons. Easily the best center in the league, though he may be challenged by Kareem eventually according to Odin.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Original Pick - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B+ C+ B C B (B A B A- C C) +8
Redraft Pick - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- A- C+ C (A- B C- A B- C) +8
I don't thinkSheezy Druce Odin GMOTY compuGM can be mad about Jay at 1.2, but I think Caron is the pick here. He's been playing shooting guard and averaging a double double with over 10 rebounds per game, which is unheard of out of a two. Butler's versatility position-wise, as well as his 1.14 pts/tsa (compared to Jay's 1.12) give him the slight edge. He also is elite defensively, averaging 2.4 steals per game for his career.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Amare Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 240 20 B+ C D+ C B C (A- A- D+ B- A- C) +10
Redraft Pick - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B+ C+ B C B (B A B A- C C) +8
Jay didn't make it to 1.3, but if he had, I'm sure Ian would've scooped him. Jay's still got +7 and I love that he's an elite rebounder for a point guard. He's averaged 27.8 points per game for his career while being surrounded by a very good supporting cast. The turnovers are *slightly* higher than you'd like, but when considering the full package, he's unquestionably a top-3 player in this draft. The Bucks ought to trade Guyton for a serious return and let Jay flourish at the point.
4. Seattle SuperSonics
Original Pick - Dajuan Wagner PG 6'2'' 190 19 B+ C+ C- C C- C (B+ B C B- C- A) +5
Redraft Pick - Amare Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 240 20 B+ C D+ C B C (A- A- D+ B- A- C) +10
Unquestionably the most disappointing pick of the top five, I had high hopes for Dajuan and his impressive scoring write-up. Turnovers unfortunately proved to be his downfall, though there's a glimmer of hope for him playing shooting guard (nice work, user TimPig ). Amare is an offensive powerhouse and the defense is coming around to the point where he may become a 2 bleal per game kind of player. Amare's 1.18 pts/tsa is pretty remarkable and would be much more talked about if he wasn't living in Yao's shadow. That efficiency was certainly helped by the +50 to three-pointers he got in the lab.
For fun, I did a calculation that is probably terribly inaccurate (what do you want? I'm not eric
) to see what Amare's pts/tsa would be if he never took a 3-pointer. Amare has shot 49.1% on 2-pointers during his career. If we move all of his 3-pointers to 2-pointers and apply that same 49.1% efficiency, his pts/tsa drops to about 1.15 (I think).
5. Portland Trailblazers
Original Pick - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- A- C+ C (A- B C- A B- C) +8
Redraft Pick - Qyntel Woods SF 6'9'' 230 20 B C+ C- B- C D (A- B- C A- C+ C) +8
Majic has to be happy with Caron falling to him, but that doesn't happen in the redraft. Still, Majic ends up with an elite small forward in Qyntel Woods, though his entire team probably looks very different as Qyntel doesn't have Caron's SG eligibility. Upon further research, Qyntel is putting up 1.20 pts/tsa, making him the fifth potential Hall of Famer from this class. The rebounding is excellent (8.5 per game for his career), the defense is getting better and on the verge of excellence (2.6 bleals per game last season), and the aforementioned scoring is Hall of Fame-worthy. Props to Andrewluck for getting Qyntel at 1.27 after he was passed on by just about everyone. I've made a number of mistakes in 5.0, but not picking Qyntel because I wanted to maintain max cap space is the one that hurts the most.
6. Golden State Warriors
Original Pick - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 245 20 B- D+ D B- C+ C (B- C- D B B- C) +3
Redraft Pick - Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 250 21 B- C C C+ B B (B+ C C B- A- B) +5
After five potential Hall of Famers filling out picks one through five, things get much murkier here. Nene was obviously not the right pick as he's good at pretty much nothing and is now withering away in Sacramento, but I'm going with Gooden here as the Warriors were in need of a big and he was the next best available. Skylar Diggins is given some thought, but with Elle Okobo at the point, Diggins isn't needed. Gooden's at a decent 1.13 pts/tsa for his career and grabs a good amount of rebounds, but the defense is lacking and the turnovers a bit higher than you like. Not a slam dunk by any means, but should be a good player for a long time.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Ryan Humphrey SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- B- C+ B (C+ C+ D+ B+ C+ B) +1
Redraft Pick - Marcus Taylor PG 6'3'' 195 20 B- C B- B- D+ B (B B- B B- C- D) +3
Humphrey is currently a free agent and looks to be out of the league in the next year or two. The scoring grades were ugly to start, but Humphrey's history of being excellent defensively in the past probably intrigued Ian. After dealing Collin Sexton, the T-Wolves were in need of a point guard, and Taylor isn't a bad one. Skylar Diggins also gets some consideration, but her turnovers give Taylor the slight edge, even though she's a better scorer and defender. Taylor, picked at 1.19, was the pick I sold to Delap to keep max cap room that I would've taken Qyntel Woods with. #neverforget
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
Original Pick - Marcus Haislip PF 6'10'' 230 22 B C D+ C B C (B- C D+ C- B- F) -3
Redraft Pick - Skylar Diggins PG 5'9'' 140 22 C B A- C+ D B (C+ A- A B+ C- B) +9
Have the Cavs had a good player in 5.0? I can't really remember one at this point other than Benji Wilson for a short time. Therefore, the Cavs take the best player available in Diggins, who is at least a serviceable point guard. Solid defender and decent enough scorer who eclipsed 9 win shares last season. Haislip is trash and hasn't played meaningful minutes since his rookie season.
9. Toronto Raptors
Original Pick - Chris Wilcox C 6'10'' 235 20 B- D C C B B (B D C+ C B- C) +1
Redraft Pick - Frank Blazejowski C 7'0'' 267 19 B- D+ C B C+ C (B C- C- A- B B) +5
Wilcox was drafted by the late Breauxcaine after his profile indicated he'd be a defensive specialist, but he's turned out to be a nothing specialist lmbo. Blazejowski probably isn't the pick if we're going best player available, where I'd go for Kareem Rush or Dajuan Wagner, but with Miles Bridges and Cuttino Mobley both firmly entrenched on the wings, the Raptors take Blazejowksi, who was an incredible value in the second round and has accumulated over 16 win shares in his first three years en route to a contract averaging 13.75 million over three years.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Original Pick - Skylar Diggins PG 5'9'' 140 22 C B A- C+ D B (C+ A- A B+ C- B) +9
Redraft Pick - Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21 C+ B- C B- C B (B B+ C+ B- C B) +5
Diggins ended up being a good value relative to the rest of the draft at 1.10, so SPL and the Lakers aren't happy having to settle for Kareem Rush instead. Rush is a good scorer at 1.12 pts/tsa for his career, but nothing else about him jumps out at you. Defense and rebounding are both decent. He might make a good third or fourth option on a good team.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Smush Parker PG 6'4'' 190 21 C+ B- B- C+ C B (C+ B+ C+ C+ C B) +1
Redraft Pick - Dajuan Wagner PG 6'2'' 190 19 B+ C+ C- C C- C (B+ B C B- C- A) +5
I liked Smush Parker's original grades when he was drafted as they showed no glaring weaknesses, but he's proven to be quite the disappointment and wore out his welcome with the T-Wolves. Ian instead grabs the original 1.4, Dajuan Wagner, at 1.11, fixes his handles, and gets a decent enough scorer who averaged 1.11 pts/tsa in his only full season at shooting guard.
1.12 Washington Bullets
Original Pick - Nikoloz Tskitishvili PF 7'0" 240 19 C B- B- C C+ B (C C+ C+ C+ C+ C) -1
Redraft Pick - Randy Holcomb SF 6'9'' 215 22 C C D A- B- C (C C+ D+ A- B B) +3
Now things get really ugly. Niko's write-up and grades (C B- B- C C+ B) had him on my no-draft list, but Kn may have been remembering Niko's 4.0 dominance too fondly. Poor Kn. I feel like I'm saying that at least once in every article I write. For some reason, Ank signed Niko for five years, so at least he'll be able to support his family. Holcomb looks like another defensive specialist a la Herb Jones and Stacey Augmon who doesn't shoot but can rebound (unlike Augmon). As a rookie Holcomb averaged nearly 3 bleals per game before Ian declined him, rejected my trade offer, then rescinded his decline. You're welcome, Odin.
1.13 Golden State Warriors
Original Pick - Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21 C+ B- C B- C B (B B+ C+ B- C B) +5
Redraft Pick - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 245 20 B- D+ D B- C+ C (B- C- D B B- C) +3
Things get even uglier here, almost to unplayable levels. The original 1.6 could at least get to playable status as a third big if he received +25. If I'm being really optimistic, he might average a double-double per 36 with investment.
1.14 Denver Nuggets
Original Pick - Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 C+ C- C C B+ C (C+ C- C C+ B D) Even
Redraft Pick - Juan Dixon PG 6'3'' 185 22 C B+ B- C C- C (C A- B- C D+ C) Even
Another player who has carved out a niche for the cap-strapped Globetrotters as their backup point guard. A measly 1.02 pts/tsa, but he's at least a positive win shares player I guess. Most of the guys left are no longer on a roster.
Draft grades are first. Current grades are in parentheses.
1. Charlotte Hornets
Original Pick - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 300 22 B C D+ A- B- C (B+ C D+ A- B C) +2
Redraft Pick - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 300 22 B C D+ A- B- C (B+ C D+ A- B C) +2
After this class' Rookie TC, it looked like Jay Williams may have been deserving of 1.1 after he went something like +6 compared to Yao's +2 if my memory serves me correctly. Fecta said as much, saying after TC he wished he would've drafted Jay #eliteGM. Looking back, Fecta made the right choice at 1.1, drafting the player who would go on to have the greatest rookie season 5.0 has seen, and one who has averaged 1.23 pts/tsa for his career, which is GOAT status. Not only that, but Yao has had led all centers in win shares in each of his first three seasons. Easily the best center in the league, though he may be challenged by Kareem eventually according to Odin.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Original Pick - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B+ C+ B C B (B A B A- C C) +8
Redraft Pick - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- A- C+ C (A- B C- A B- C) +8
I don't think
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Amare Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 240 20 B+ C D+ C B C (A- A- D+ B- A- C) +10
Redraft Pick - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B+ C+ B C B (B A B A- C C) +8
Jay didn't make it to 1.3, but if he had, I'm sure Ian would've scooped him. Jay's still got +7 and I love that he's an elite rebounder for a point guard. He's averaged 27.8 points per game for his career while being surrounded by a very good supporting cast. The turnovers are *slightly* higher than you'd like, but when considering the full package, he's unquestionably a top-3 player in this draft. The Bucks ought to trade Guyton for a serious return and let Jay flourish at the point.
4. Seattle SuperSonics
Original Pick - Dajuan Wagner PG 6'2'' 190 19 B+ C+ C- C C- C (B+ B C B- C- A) +5
Redraft Pick - Amare Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 240 20 B+ C D+ C B C (A- A- D+ B- A- C) +10
Unquestionably the most disappointing pick of the top five, I had high hopes for Dajuan and his impressive scoring write-up. Turnovers unfortunately proved to be his downfall, though there's a glimmer of hope for him playing shooting guard (nice work, user TimPig ). Amare is an offensive powerhouse and the defense is coming around to the point where he may become a 2 bleal per game kind of player. Amare's 1.18 pts/tsa is pretty remarkable and would be much more talked about if he wasn't living in Yao's shadow. That efficiency was certainly helped by the +50 to three-pointers he got in the lab.
For fun, I did a calculation that is probably terribly inaccurate (what do you want? I'm not eric
) to see what Amare's pts/tsa would be if he never took a 3-pointer. Amare has shot 49.1% on 2-pointers during his career. If we move all of his 3-pointers to 2-pointers and apply that same 49.1% efficiency, his pts/tsa drops to about 1.15 (I think).5. Portland Trailblazers
Original Pick - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- A- C+ C (A- B C- A B- C) +8
Redraft Pick - Qyntel Woods SF 6'9'' 230 20 B C+ C- B- C D (A- B- C A- C+ C) +8
Majic has to be happy with Caron falling to him, but that doesn't happen in the redraft. Still, Majic ends up with an elite small forward in Qyntel Woods, though his entire team probably looks very different as Qyntel doesn't have Caron's SG eligibility. Upon further research, Qyntel is putting up 1.20 pts/tsa, making him the fifth potential Hall of Famer from this class. The rebounding is excellent (8.5 per game for his career), the defense is getting better and on the verge of excellence (2.6 bleals per game last season), and the aforementioned scoring is Hall of Fame-worthy. Props to Andrewluck for getting Qyntel at 1.27 after he was passed on by just about everyone. I've made a number of mistakes in 5.0, but not picking Qyntel because I wanted to maintain max cap space is the one that hurts the most.
6. Golden State Warriors
Original Pick - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 245 20 B- D+ D B- C+ C (B- C- D B B- C) +3
Redraft Pick - Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 250 21 B- C C C+ B B (B+ C C B- A- B) +5
After five potential Hall of Famers filling out picks one through five, things get much murkier here. Nene was obviously not the right pick as he's good at pretty much nothing and is now withering away in Sacramento, but I'm going with Gooden here as the Warriors were in need of a big and he was the next best available. Skylar Diggins is given some thought, but with Elle Okobo at the point, Diggins isn't needed. Gooden's at a decent 1.13 pts/tsa for his career and grabs a good amount of rebounds, but the defense is lacking and the turnovers a bit higher than you like. Not a slam dunk by any means, but should be a good player for a long time.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Ryan Humphrey SF 6'7'' 220 22 C+ C+ C- B- C+ B (C+ C+ D+ B+ C+ B) +1
Redraft Pick - Marcus Taylor PG 6'3'' 195 20 B- C B- B- D+ B (B B- B B- C- D) +3
Humphrey is currently a free agent and looks to be out of the league in the next year or two. The scoring grades were ugly to start, but Humphrey's history of being excellent defensively in the past probably intrigued Ian. After dealing Collin Sexton, the T-Wolves were in need of a point guard, and Taylor isn't a bad one. Skylar Diggins also gets some consideration, but her turnovers give Taylor the slight edge, even though she's a better scorer and defender. Taylor, picked at 1.19, was the pick I sold to Delap to keep max cap room that I would've taken Qyntel Woods with. #neverforget
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
Original Pick - Marcus Haislip PF 6'10'' 230 22 B C D+ C B C (B- C D+ C- B- F) -3
Redraft Pick - Skylar Diggins PG 5'9'' 140 22 C B A- C+ D B (C+ A- A B+ C- B) +9
Have the Cavs had a good player in 5.0? I can't really remember one at this point other than Benji Wilson for a short time. Therefore, the Cavs take the best player available in Diggins, who is at least a serviceable point guard. Solid defender and decent enough scorer who eclipsed 9 win shares last season. Haislip is trash and hasn't played meaningful minutes since his rookie season.
9. Toronto Raptors
Original Pick - Chris Wilcox C 6'10'' 235 20 B- D C C B B (B D C+ C B- C) +1
Redraft Pick - Frank Blazejowski C 7'0'' 267 19 B- D+ C B C+ C (B C- C- A- B B) +5
Wilcox was drafted by the late Breauxcaine after his profile indicated he'd be a defensive specialist, but he's turned out to be a nothing specialist lmbo. Blazejowski probably isn't the pick if we're going best player available, where I'd go for Kareem Rush or Dajuan Wagner, but with Miles Bridges and Cuttino Mobley both firmly entrenched on the wings, the Raptors take Blazejowksi, who was an incredible value in the second round and has accumulated over 16 win shares in his first three years en route to a contract averaging 13.75 million over three years.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Original Pick - Skylar Diggins PG 5'9'' 140 22 C B A- C+ D B (C+ A- A B+ C- B) +9
Redraft Pick - Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21 C+ B- C B- C B (B B+ C+ B- C B) +5
Diggins ended up being a good value relative to the rest of the draft at 1.10, so SPL and the Lakers aren't happy having to settle for Kareem Rush instead. Rush is a good scorer at 1.12 pts/tsa for his career, but nothing else about him jumps out at you. Defense and rebounding are both decent. He might make a good third or fourth option on a good team.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Original Pick - Smush Parker PG 6'4'' 190 21 C+ B- B- C+ C B (C+ B+ C+ C+ C B) +1
Redraft Pick - Dajuan Wagner PG 6'2'' 190 19 B+ C+ C- C C- C (B+ B C B- C- A) +5
I liked Smush Parker's original grades when he was drafted as they showed no glaring weaknesses, but he's proven to be quite the disappointment and wore out his welcome with the T-Wolves. Ian instead grabs the original 1.4, Dajuan Wagner, at 1.11, fixes his handles, and gets a decent enough scorer who averaged 1.11 pts/tsa in his only full season at shooting guard.
1.12 Washington Bullets
Original Pick - Nikoloz Tskitishvili PF 7'0" 240 19 C B- B- C C+ B (C C+ C+ C+ C+ C) -1
Redraft Pick - Randy Holcomb SF 6'9'' 215 22 C C D A- B- C (C C+ D+ A- B B) +3
Now things get really ugly. Niko's write-up and grades (C B- B- C C+ B) had him on my no-draft list, but Kn may have been remembering Niko's 4.0 dominance too fondly. Poor Kn. I feel like I'm saying that at least once in every article I write. For some reason, Ank signed Niko for five years, so at least he'll be able to support his family. Holcomb looks like another defensive specialist a la Herb Jones and Stacey Augmon who doesn't shoot but can rebound (unlike Augmon). As a rookie Holcomb averaged nearly 3 bleals per game before Ian declined him, rejected my trade offer, then rescinded his decline. You're welcome, Odin.
1.13 Golden State Warriors
Original Pick - Kareem Rush SG 6'6'' 215 21 C+ B- C B- C B (B B+ C+ B- C B) +5
Redraft Pick - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 245 20 B- D+ D B- C+ C (B- C- D B B- C) +3
Things get even uglier here, almost to unplayable levels. The original 1.6 could at least get to playable status as a third big if he received +25. If I'm being really optimistic, he might average a double-double per 36 with investment.
1.14 Denver Nuggets
Original Pick - Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 C+ C- C C B+ C (C+ C- C C+ B D) Even
Redraft Pick - Juan Dixon PG 6'3'' 185 22 C B+ B- C C- C (C A- B- C D+ C) Even
Another player who has carved out a niche for the cap-strapped Globetrotters as their backup point guard. A measly 1.02 pts/tsa, but he's at least a positive win shares player I guess. Most of the guys left are no longer on a roster.
