Post by jhb on Jul 30, 2018 15:04:29 GMT
Hello and welcome to this Free Agency Preview.
No-Brainer Maxes:
These are the players that, in my opinion, deserve max money.
DeAndre Ayton - What a fucking stud muffin.
Gary Bossert - As of writing, he hadn't been accepted yet. I imagine that will change. If not, here's a high powered wing-scorer literally every team in TMBSL could use.
Daniel Taurasi - Another high-octane wing scorer that any team would be happy to add into the fold. Only this one has the added intrigue of being close to being point guard eligible. Could someone pick him/her up and try to make a PG?
Reach Maxes:
These are the players that will likely get max money and their GM will regret it by year 3.
Luke Maye - I hesitate to put Maye in this category because I think he's a really solid player. I'm just really concerned about giving him an escalating max contract and having to pay that money as he turns the clock past age 30. So I have Maye here but he's a fringe "No-Brainer Max" guy.
Chuck Person - I think someone loses their head and throws a max to Person after missing on their Day 1 targets hoping that the A- A- scoring starts to shine through after having to take a back seat to the likes of Guy Beahm, Brain Winter, and Harry Gallatin. If that isn't the case, whichever GM does this will be begging someone to buy him out by year 3.
Veterans that can still go and should get midlevel or better:
These are the guys that range from those that would get max money if they weren't 30+ and GMs weren't concerned about regretting the deal by year 3 to the guys who get an MLE or higher mid-level deal on a team with a need and have a comeback year that reminds everyone how good they were in their prime to the guys that fill in as an elite role player on very good teams.
Theodosios Cathasach - Will definitely get just short of max money for a couple of seasons to anchor someone's defense and rebounding.
Harry Gallatin - Still an all-star player, it will be interesting to see what he gets on the market as a 35 year old who can still play at a very high level. This will be some intense bidding, but I imagine the advantage will go to the incumbent on a multi-year, flat deal at or near starting max-level.
Jon Pierce - Pierce has certainly lost some of the luster that he had when he entered the league but he still put up 1.11 pts/tsa, 11 reb/36, and good block/steal numbers with a solid ast/to ratio for a big. Should be a solid role player for a contender.
Paul Young Thomas - This dude gets it done. Play PYT, baby. Good block numbers, passable rebounding, solid efficiency for a big that won't be counted on to be a scorer. Another solid depth piece on a contender.
Dan Cortezzeee - Will likely be resigned way below market before the FA period opens but as of writing it does not appear he is resigned. Can provide a solid scoring punch off the bench as a backup combo guard.
Juan Keaney - He's flown under the radar since leaving Atlanta for Boston, but Keaney can still give you 20 per game as a starter. He isn't too big a liability as a defender or rebounder and won't turn it over too much to be unplayable. Pts/tsa were only 1.07 last year but that should be good enough to slot somewhere as a backup 2/3 at worst.
Juwanna Mann - Another veteran wing that should be able to provide a scoring punch off the bench.
Chalky Studebaker - He isn't a great scorer and his turnovers are more than you'd like, but I think his defense and rebounding at the 3 can make him someone who is a solid backup wing and injury fill-in and will more than payoff an MLE investment.
Speculative deals just above Mid-level:
These are the younger veterans that could become max players but aren't quite there yet so they'll get long-term speculative deals between 6-10 million dollars.
Udoka Azubuike - He has some obvious flaws as his FT shooting (and knack for getting to the line) drain his offensive officiency and his rebounding is sub-optimal. But he does provide a scoring punch from down low and his defense can play. He will likely get above MLE level from a GM looking to make sure they have someone that has to be reckoned with in the post.
Jesus Shuttlesworth - Despite him getting benched in his last season with the Rockets, someone who is in desperate need of a wing player goes after Jesus because he's a name brand. I think that the lowered expectations and change of scenery will lead to a bit of a career renaissance.
Seventh Woods - Has one really good skill in his passing/handling ability but will likely get paid higher than MLE level because he's a top 11 PG by win shares and people like to over-project how they can improve someone with their upgrades...and Seventh has taken none so far.
Jordan McLaughlin - Does everything just well enough to continue getting paid to be the PG that does just enough to let other good players on their team shine.
Alex Schmidt - Looked pretty good in his debut with the Timberwolves last year. Don't be surprised to see someone pay this guy and make him their starter while trying to work out some of the minor flaws in his game since he's only 23 and looked solid in limited time.
MLE All-Stars:
These are the guys that will deliver the most value to their teams on a likely MLE-level contract.
LiAngelo Ball - Not a guy I would ever want to start with the low defense grade despite high steals (and I haven't), but definitely someone who can score at an efficient rate off the bench while not turning it over, so someone who would easily be worth the MLE for a team looking to add a bench scorer.
Theo Hilinski - I think he's a really solid backup PG at an MLE level and I think he could slot in as a passable starter on a team with no star PG.
Roy Devyn White - Can be a do-it-all supersub across the 1, 2, and 3 and fill in as a passable starter at any if need be (although his scoring efficiency has been going the wrong way lately).
Thomas Wilder - Was passable as the Magic's starting PG last year and could do the same for another team this season.
Jeff Hornacek - He's been pretty meh as a SG, but I look for someone to take him at a midlevel deal and try to make a PG out of him while having the option to extend him out to bird years. Could be an interesting experiment.
Under the radar:
These are the guys that I think aren't falling into the categories above that someone should take a chance on.
Christ Koumadje - I don't think he deserves what he tried to resign for and I don't know that a lot of people will want to pay even an MLE for him, but I think he can provide some solid D/R type depth at one of the big spots and not be a tremendous liability. Scoring efficiency is passable for a low usage player, not a lot of turnovers, and the blocks and rebounds are okay. Would be a good LLE pickup if you could swing it.
Freddie McSwaim Jr. - Another guy that I think has some D/R to his game but seems to fly under everyone's radar.
Ayo Dosunmu - Really up and down from year to year, but I think the combo of grades, size, and potential is worth it for someone who isn't trying to compete to try and lock-down on a low AAV long-term deal and try to develop.
Won't get a lot and will still be overpaid:
You know you've seen a deal around MLE level or lower that still made you cringe and wonder why the hell someone was paying this player that much. These are those guys.
Brad Daugherty - He is great if you're looking for a scoring big that doesn't really provide the volume, sub-elite rebounding, lots of turnovers, and absolutely no defense. Would be good for an LLE big to come off the bench and provide some efficient scoring on an inside-focused team, but I imagine someone will pay him more.
Austin Wiley - Scoring isn't that efficient, turnovers aren't great, defense is improving but still sub-optimal. Seems like someone Fecta would overpay. *checks notes*
Stojko Vrankovic - Same story as above. Big with no defense and high turnovers that can put up some points and will probably get paid too much to bring that to the table.
Bol Bol - Someone who got drafted too high because of a name and potential, got too many chances because of a good performance in a small sample size, and then failed to get a lot better over the years. Not really sure how this guy keeps getting chances. He's an Eric min big IMO.
No-Brainer Maxes:
These are the players that, in my opinion, deserve max money.
DeAndre Ayton - What a fucking stud muffin.
Gary Bossert - As of writing, he hadn't been accepted yet. I imagine that will change. If not, here's a high powered wing-scorer literally every team in TMBSL could use.
Daniel Taurasi - Another high-octane wing scorer that any team would be happy to add into the fold. Only this one has the added intrigue of being close to being point guard eligible. Could someone pick him/her up and try to make a PG?
Reach Maxes:
These are the players that will likely get max money and their GM will regret it by year 3.
Luke Maye - I hesitate to put Maye in this category because I think he's a really solid player. I'm just really concerned about giving him an escalating max contract and having to pay that money as he turns the clock past age 30. So I have Maye here but he's a fringe "No-Brainer Max" guy.
Chuck Person - I think someone loses their head and throws a max to Person after missing on their Day 1 targets hoping that the A- A- scoring starts to shine through after having to take a back seat to the likes of Guy Beahm, Brain Winter, and Harry Gallatin. If that isn't the case, whichever GM does this will be begging someone to buy him out by year 3.
Veterans that can still go and should get midlevel or better:
These are the guys that range from those that would get max money if they weren't 30+ and GMs weren't concerned about regretting the deal by year 3 to the guys who get an MLE or higher mid-level deal on a team with a need and have a comeback year that reminds everyone how good they were in their prime to the guys that fill in as an elite role player on very good teams.
Theodosios Cathasach - Will definitely get just short of max money for a couple of seasons to anchor someone's defense and rebounding.
Harry Gallatin - Still an all-star player, it will be interesting to see what he gets on the market as a 35 year old who can still play at a very high level. This will be some intense bidding, but I imagine the advantage will go to the incumbent on a multi-year, flat deal at or near starting max-level.
Jon Pierce - Pierce has certainly lost some of the luster that he had when he entered the league but he still put up 1.11 pts/tsa, 11 reb/36, and good block/steal numbers with a solid ast/to ratio for a big. Should be a solid role player for a contender.
Paul Young Thomas - This dude gets it done. Play PYT, baby. Good block numbers, passable rebounding, solid efficiency for a big that won't be counted on to be a scorer. Another solid depth piece on a contender.
Dan Cortezzeee - Will likely be resigned way below market before the FA period opens but as of writing it does not appear he is resigned. Can provide a solid scoring punch off the bench as a backup combo guard.
Juan Keaney - He's flown under the radar since leaving Atlanta for Boston, but Keaney can still give you 20 per game as a starter. He isn't too big a liability as a defender or rebounder and won't turn it over too much to be unplayable. Pts/tsa were only 1.07 last year but that should be good enough to slot somewhere as a backup 2/3 at worst.
Juwanna Mann - Another veteran wing that should be able to provide a scoring punch off the bench.
Chalky Studebaker - He isn't a great scorer and his turnovers are more than you'd like, but I think his defense and rebounding at the 3 can make him someone who is a solid backup wing and injury fill-in and will more than payoff an MLE investment.
Speculative deals just above Mid-level:
These are the younger veterans that could become max players but aren't quite there yet so they'll get long-term speculative deals between 6-10 million dollars.
Udoka Azubuike - He has some obvious flaws as his FT shooting (and knack for getting to the line) drain his offensive officiency and his rebounding is sub-optimal. But he does provide a scoring punch from down low and his defense can play. He will likely get above MLE level from a GM looking to make sure they have someone that has to be reckoned with in the post.
Jesus Shuttlesworth - Despite him getting benched in his last season with the Rockets, someone who is in desperate need of a wing player goes after Jesus because he's a name brand. I think that the lowered expectations and change of scenery will lead to a bit of a career renaissance.
Seventh Woods - Has one really good skill in his passing/handling ability but will likely get paid higher than MLE level because he's a top 11 PG by win shares and people like to over-project how they can improve someone with their upgrades...and Seventh has taken none so far.
Jordan McLaughlin - Does everything just well enough to continue getting paid to be the PG that does just enough to let other good players on their team shine.
Alex Schmidt - Looked pretty good in his debut with the Timberwolves last year. Don't be surprised to see someone pay this guy and make him their starter while trying to work out some of the minor flaws in his game since he's only 23 and looked solid in limited time.
MLE All-Stars:
These are the guys that will deliver the most value to their teams on a likely MLE-level contract.
LiAngelo Ball - Not a guy I would ever want to start with the low defense grade despite high steals (and I haven't), but definitely someone who can score at an efficient rate off the bench while not turning it over, so someone who would easily be worth the MLE for a team looking to add a bench scorer.
Theo Hilinski - I think he's a really solid backup PG at an MLE level and I think he could slot in as a passable starter on a team with no star PG.
Roy Devyn White - Can be a do-it-all supersub across the 1, 2, and 3 and fill in as a passable starter at any if need be (although his scoring efficiency has been going the wrong way lately).
Thomas Wilder - Was passable as the Magic's starting PG last year and could do the same for another team this season.
Jeff Hornacek - He's been pretty meh as a SG, but I look for someone to take him at a midlevel deal and try to make a PG out of him while having the option to extend him out to bird years. Could be an interesting experiment.
Under the radar:
These are the guys that I think aren't falling into the categories above that someone should take a chance on.
Christ Koumadje - I don't think he deserves what he tried to resign for and I don't know that a lot of people will want to pay even an MLE for him, but I think he can provide some solid D/R type depth at one of the big spots and not be a tremendous liability. Scoring efficiency is passable for a low usage player, not a lot of turnovers, and the blocks and rebounds are okay. Would be a good LLE pickup if you could swing it.
Freddie McSwaim Jr. - Another guy that I think has some D/R to his game but seems to fly under everyone's radar.
Ayo Dosunmu - Really up and down from year to year, but I think the combo of grades, size, and potential is worth it for someone who isn't trying to compete to try and lock-down on a low AAV long-term deal and try to develop.
Won't get a lot and will still be overpaid:
You know you've seen a deal around MLE level or lower that still made you cringe and wonder why the hell someone was paying this player that much. These are those guys.
Brad Daugherty - He is great if you're looking for a scoring big that doesn't really provide the volume, sub-elite rebounding, lots of turnovers, and absolutely no defense. Would be good for an LLE big to come off the bench and provide some efficient scoring on an inside-focused team, but I imagine someone will pay him more.
Austin Wiley - Scoring isn't that efficient, turnovers aren't great, defense is improving but still sub-optimal. Seems like someone Fecta would overpay. *checks notes*
Stojko Vrankovic - Same story as above. Big with no defense and high turnovers that can put up some points and will probably get paid too much to bring that to the table.
Bol Bol - Someone who got drafted too high because of a name and potential, got too many chances because of a good performance in a small sample size, and then failed to get a lot better over the years. Not really sure how this guy keeps getting chances. He's an Eric min big IMO.
