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Post by eric on Nov 30, 2020 20:19:43 GMT
This came up in shout and I wanted to illustrate what I was talking about.
A wheel with X slots for X teams and X years is perfectly fair when all X are the same.
When evaluating two given wheels for cases when all X aren't, it's important to look at multiple permutations.
For example, an 18 slot wheel with 18 teams is always going to do better than a 30 slot wheel with 18 teams, but if we look at a 12 year span we see a spread in the average draft slot of teams of .25 for the 18 and 2.10 for the 30, and if we look at a 30 year span we see a spread of .10 for the 18 and .40 for the 30 - the 18 is still better, but only barely.
For another example, an 18 slot wheel with 16 teams is better than the 30 slot wheel in the 12 year span (.92 to 1.08) but worse in the 30 years span (.77 to .60).
For another example, an 18 slot wheel with 15 teams is going to do worse than a 30 slot wheel over both those spans: in the 12 year the 18 wheel has a spread of 1.25 while the 30 wheel has a spread of 1.00, and in the 30 year the 18 wheel has a spread of 1.10 while the 30 wheel has a spread of .50. And of course, over an 18 year span the 18 wheel is still better at 1.00 to 1.17.
The # of years we look at can make differences seem huge tiny or even the other way around, and a smaller distance from the # of slots to # of teams does not mean that wheel will distribute picks more fairly.
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Since our league runs about 50 seasons, I think it makes the most sense to look at a 50 season span. When we do that the 18 slot wheel has a spread of .60 and the 30 slot wheel has a spread of .60. Since there is literally no difference, I think giving the most leeway for expansion (both in terms of # of teams and in terms of options to reduce the spread) is the only choice.
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Post by Majic on Nov 30, 2020 20:24:14 GMT
I would love to see a clear breakdown of how many of each picks the team gets.
The main issue that Druce found was the in-equality of #1 overall picks for certain teams. Some teams got 2 of them while another team got 1, or none, in that same time frame.
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Post by jhb on Nov 30, 2020 20:24:34 GMT
#math
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Post by jhb on Nov 30, 2020 20:26:09 GMT
How are you going to argue about teams having different amounts of #1 picks are unfair when the spread is so tight and also argue that wheel in general is unfair because sometimes a #1 in one draft is equivalent to a much lower pick in another draft
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Post by Majic on Nov 30, 2020 20:30:40 GMT
How are you going to argue about teams having different amounts of #1 picks are unfair when the spread is so tight and also argue that wheel in general is unfair because sometimes a #1 in one draft is equivalent to a much lower pick in another draft Well first off, I was never the one arguing anything, that was Druce. Druce feel free to jump in with your previous concerns. I was sharing what Druces concern was in relation to pick distribution when he returned. When he did a breakdown of the next 10-15 years (cant remember the exact number) he was not receiving a first round pick, yet other teams were set to get multiple. I also think seeing a breakdown of the picks is important to seeing a difference, at least in my opinion. Actual pick position matters. |
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Post by eric on Nov 30, 2020 20:47:38 GMT
I would love to see a clear breakdown of how many of each picks the team gets. The main issue that Druce found was the in-equality of #1 overall picks for certain teams. Some teams got 2 of them while another team got 1, or none, in that same time frame. in the 50 year span with 16 teams the 30 team wheel sees a range of 1 to 5 #1 picks and the 18 team wheel sees a range of 2 to 8 but for #2 picks, the ranges are 0 to 7 and 0 to 6 respectively looking at any arbitrary # pick is a worse way of doing this, because as the above shows whether one is better than the other depends on where you stop. i have no doubt if we looked at #3 or #4 or #5 picks we'd get different answers each time too. that's not helpful to our decision making process |
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Post by skrouse on Nov 30, 2020 21:15:39 GMT
I would love to see a clear breakdown of how many of each picks the team gets. The main issue that Druce found was the in-equality of #1 overall picks for certain teams. Some teams got 2 of them while another team got 1, or none, in that same time frame. in the 50 year span with 16 teams the 30 team wheel sees a range of 1 to 5 #1 picks and the 18 team wheel sees a range of 2 to 8 but for #2 picks, the ranges are 0 to 7 and 0 to 6 respectively looking at any arbitrary # pick is a worse way of doing this, because as the above shows whether one is better than the other depends on where you stop. i have no doubt if we looked at #3 or #4 or #5 picks we'd get different answers each time too. that's not helpful to our decision making process I believe this only accounts for missing teams and not adding/removing teams due to expansion/contraction which leads to picks sliding up or down.
I think the short answer is, it won't be perfect, some teams will get a slight advantage but it's the best system we have. And based on the feedback received thus far, it's the preferred system for our current GMs.
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Post by Druce on Dec 1, 2020 6:15:11 GMT
How are you going to argue about teams having different amounts of #1 picks are unfair when the spread is so tight and also argue that wheel in general is unfair because sometimes a #1 in one draft is equivalent to a much lower pick in another draft Well first off, I was never the one arguing anything, that was Druce. Druce feel free to jump in with your previous concerns.I was sharing what Druces concern was in relation to pick distribution when he returned. When he did a breakdown of the next 10-15 years (cant remember the exact number) he was not receiving a first round pick, yet other teams were set to get multiple. I also think seeing a breakdown of the picks is important to seeing a difference, at least in my opinion. Actual pick position matters. hard pass |
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Post by killybing on Dec 1, 2020 14:10:42 GMT
Well first off, I was never the one arguing anything, that was Druce. Druce feel free to jump in with your previous concerns.I was sharing what Druces concern was in relation to pick distribution when he returned. When he did a breakdown of the next 10-15 years (cant remember the exact number) he was not receiving a first round pick, yet other teams were set to get multiple. I also think seeing a breakdown of the picks is important to seeing a difference, at least in my opinion. Actual pick position matters. hard pass
look at the cool kid being 2 cool 4 skool
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Post by Druce on Dec 1, 2020 14:49:06 GMT
look at the cool kid being 2 cool 4 skool
it's not worth re-hashing. there is an entire thread |
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Post by Logan on Dec 1, 2020 15:31:11 GMT
lets use a 300 slot wheel
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Post by killybing on Dec 1, 2020 15:35:05 GMT
When you create a bicycle wheel, how many spokes do you add? Is it the minimum required to support the structural integrity of your wheel?! NAY! You add many spokes. Such that if one or two spokes were to break, or excess weight were to be added, the wheel will still be supported and maintain it's functionality.
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Post by jhb on Dec 1, 2020 16:38:06 GMT
When you create a bicycle wheel, how many spokes do you add? Is it the minimum required to support the structural integrity of your wheel?! NAY! You add many spokes. Such that if one or two spokes were to break, or excess weight were to be added, the wheel will still be supported and maintain it's functionality.  |
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Post by eric on Dec 1, 2020 17:59:07 GMT
look at the cool kid being 2 cool 4 skool
it's not worth re-hashing. there is an entire thread do you feel that the concerns you brought up in that thread are addressed by what i put in the OP? if not, which ones remain unaddressed? |
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 16:33:55 GMT
I have an idea. Mixing draft classes! I volunteer to do it even! Various ways we could do it, take a top 50 best players of all time list and give them each their own class, pair up randoms like #1 from 2004 with #2 from 1974 with #3 from 1953 etc.
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Post by skrouse on Dec 4, 2020 17:03:52 GMT
I like mixing up classes some, not sure I'm for a complete shuffle but I'm open to discussions
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Post by Logan on Dec 4, 2020 17:05:31 GMT
ive been wanting to mix the entire player pool to pull randomly from since 4.0
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Post by skrouse on Dec 4, 2020 17:06:08 GMT
would we weight it some how, like X # of each position or something?
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Post by Logan on Dec 4, 2020 17:11:30 GMT
that would probably makes sense
could also be worth having a pool thats top 5 picks and a pool for everyone else
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Post by skrouse on Dec 4, 2020 17:22:26 GMT
that would probably makes sense could also be worth having a pool thats top 5 picks and a pool for everyone else Oooo I like that, even out the top 5 across all drafts. |
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 17:23:30 GMT
could literally take like the top x # of winshare players of all time or ws/48 and put them in lists, rng a number from each list and those are the top 5 for the draft
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 17:24:15 GMT
say top 250 ws/48 players of all time with a minimum number of minutes played, put them in groups of 50 and bada bing bada boom
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 17:24:58 GMT
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Dec 4, 2020 17:26:09 GMT
with the caveat that player builds will be different and we have a competent, consistent draft profile writer.
predictability is not the end goal.
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 17:29:57 GMT
i've said i would dm, im sure others are interested too
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Dec 4, 2020 17:38:45 GMT
i've said i would dm, im sure others are interested too you qualify as competent and consistent |
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Post by Logan on Dec 4, 2020 17:44:05 GMT
could literally take like the top x # of winshare players of all time or ws/48 and put them in lists, rng a number from each list and those are the top 5 for the draft thats a decent option as well |
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Post by Druce on Dec 4, 2020 17:48:05 GMT
i've said i would dm, im sure others are interested too you qualify as competent and consistent ehhhhhhhh maybe |
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Post by eric on Dec 4, 2020 19:23:11 GMT
I have an idea. Mixing draft classes! I volunteer to do it even! Various ways we could do it, take a top 50 best players of all time list and give them each their own class, pair up randoms like #1 from 2004 with #2 from 1974 with #3 from 1953 etc. said this in shout but for posterity - i'd like to see let's say 3 classes to demonstrate whether this would help. like if we end up with lebron and MJ in the same class that doesn't help, but if we can split up bill and wilt that would help. this would also help us see whether it's too cumbersome to implement for a ~50 draft class league |
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Post by Logan on Dec 4, 2020 19:27:16 GMT
I have an idea. Mixing draft classes! I volunteer to do it even! Various ways we could do it, take a top 50 best players of all time list and give them each their own class, pair up randoms like #1 from 2004 with #2 from 1974 with #3 from 1953 etc. said this in shout but for posterity - i'd like to see let's say 3 classes to demonstrate whether this would help. like if we end up with lebron and MJ in the same class that doesn't help, but if we can split up bill and wilt that would help. this would also help us see whether it's too cumbersome to implement for a ~50 draft class league we could set up the pools and do some rng to see what the results would look like |
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