|
|
Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 16, 2020 18:03:43 GMT
:throws chairs: :kicks over tables:
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 18:06:21 GMT
is jhb right then? no kill today? right now we have a 2/6 (33%) chance of hitting a mafia... no kill today and we have a 2/5 (40%) tomorrow... so a slight improvement. That would then leave 3 players alive on Day 5 and the remaining town would need to sort it out and guess right. Which scenario is better? current odds. 2/6 chance of hitting. 33% of hitting mafia, 66% of GG If we hit Mafia, day 4 has a 25% chance of hitting mafia 75% chance of GG. If we no kill day 4 we go to day 5 and have a 33% chance of winning and 66% chance of GG If we no kill day 3, mafia kills at night leaving 3 v. 2 Day 4 starts with a 40% chance of mafia kill and 60% chance of GG. Kill day 4 leaves us 2 v. 1 33% chance of victory. I think this math is right. somebody check it. |
|
soup
New Member
Posts: 343
Likes: 22
Joined: March 2018
|
Post by soup on Apr 16, 2020 18:09:41 GMT
Canes for referring to it as GG.
|
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:11:31 GMT
Canes for referring to it as GG. I feel this so hard |
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:13:16 GMT
2 delap - druce, ank
2 canes - jhb, soup
1 soup - delap
1 jhb - canes
I think this is the updated tally
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 18:16:19 GMT
Canes for referring to it as GG. I feel this so hard rude |
|
soup
New Member
Posts: 343
Likes: 22
Joined: March 2018
|
Post by soup on Apr 16, 2020 18:19:07 GMT
whatever we do it needs to be unanimous or the two mafia can just switch last minute and seal our fate.
|
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:23:04 GMT
whatever we do it needs to be unanimous or the two mafia can just switch last minute and seal our fate. Or we could make the wrong move unanimously here and let them cruise to the win I feel a little better at least having one hand on the wheel |
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:24:27 GMT
Well no I guess pushing to make a unanimous move would give us an idea if we're on the right track because if there's not a lot of objection we're probably making the wrong move
|
|
|
|
Post by Druce on Apr 16, 2020 18:25:48 GMT
Well no I guess pushing to make a unanimous move would give us an idea if we're on the right track because if there's not a lot of objection we're probably making the wrong move or the mafia decides to let one of their own die to further hide the other in a sea of agreement |
|
|
|
Post by Druce on Apr 16, 2020 18:26:07 GMT
anywho i don't plan on moving off of delap, thats been my feeling the whole time
|
|
soup
New Member
Posts: 343
Likes: 22
Joined: March 2018
|
Post by soup on Apr 16, 2020 18:26:12 GMT
I also meant possibly going unanimously no execution.
|
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:27:01 GMT
Well no I guess pushing to make a unanimous move would give us an idea if we're on the right track because if there's not a lot of objection we're probably making the wrong move or the mafia decides to let one of their own die to further hide the other in a sea of agreement I would think the mafia would be fighting somewhat hard to avoid having to take that path since they're basically on the doorstep of victory with the wrong kill here |
|
|
|
Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 16, 2020 18:27:27 GMT
Vote off Delap guys. This one should be straightforward.
|
|
|
|
Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 16, 2020 18:28:09 GMT
We could be wrong, but Soup is right in that we should be decisive today. Keeping it close at the deadline could backfire bigly.
|
|
|
|
Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 16, 2020 18:31:01 GMT
canes
|
|
|
|
Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 16, 2020 18:32:04 GMT
as I stated, he's been in on the town kills both days, but hasn't led the charge on either. he's adding nothing to the discussion and pops in to complain.
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 18:35:10 GMT
is jhb right then? no kill today? right now we have a 2/6 (33%) chance of hitting a mafia... no kill today and we have a 2/5 (40%) tomorrow... so a slight improvement. That would then leave 3 players alive on Day 5 and the remaining town would need to sort it out and guess right. Which scenario is better? current odds. 2/6 chance of hitting. 33% of hitting mafia, 66% of GG If we hit Mafia, day 4 has a 25% chance of hitting mafia 75% chance of GG. If we no kill day 4 we go to day 5 and have a 33% chance of winning and 66% chance of GG If we no kill day 3, mafia kills at night leaving 3 v. 2 Day 4 starts with a 40% chance of mafia kill and 60% chance of GG. Kill day 4 leaves us 2 v. 1 33% chance of victory. I think this math is right. somebody check it. If this math is right, the correct move is No kill |
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 18:41:12 GMT
delap
Canes and soup, make the same switch and let's be decisive
|
|
soup
New Member
Posts: 343
Likes: 22
Joined: March 2018
|
Post by soup on Apr 16, 2020 18:43:24 GMT
delap
|
|
|
|
Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 16, 2020 18:46:27 GMT
That’s a timer. I’m off to golf. Nice knowing you all.
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 18:56:37 GMT
Vote off Delap guys. This one should be straightforward. why are we all in on delap now? |
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 18:58:16 GMT
I don't like this move but we need unanimity so delap
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 19:58:48 GMT
We better be right. Oh well.
|
|
|
|
Post by eric on Apr 16, 2020 20:33:35 GMT
5 delap - jhb ank canes soup druce
1 canes - delap
delap is executed
he was MAFIA
night 3 ends 5:30 pm
if the numbers of town and mafia are tied, as delap pointed out, the stated rules mean the game continues
|
|
|
|
Post by eric on Apr 16, 2020 21:30:00 GMT
the sun rises on ank's body
he was TOWN
day 4 ends 10 pm
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 21:39:17 GMT
[/quote] If we hit Mafia, day 4 has a 25% chance of hitting mafia 75% chance of GG. If we no kill day 4 we go to day 5 and have a 33% chance of winning and 66% chance of GG by my previous math, the best play is no kill. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by Druce on Apr 16, 2020 21:40:32 GMT
Yesterday my read was Delap and either Ank or Jhb, so at this point I believe it’s Jhb. A lazy mafia play would be trying to frame me based on Ank’s read of me and Delap. I’m not nearly as confident in Jhb as I was in Delap though I will say that
|
|
cf3234
New Member
Posts: 219
Likes: 19
Joined: February 2018
|
Post by cf3234 on Apr 16, 2020 21:52:37 GMT
Yesterday my read was Delap and either Ank or Jhb, so at this point I believe it’s Jhb. A lazy mafia play would be trying to frame me based on Ank’s read of me and Delap. I’m not nearly as confident in Jhb as I was in Delap though I will say that My read was JHB. But that’s based on him coming after me with minimal real evidence. Soup reads clean to me |
|
|
|
Post by jhb on Apr 16, 2020 22:36:29 GMT
Yesterday my read was Delap and either Ank or Jhb, so at this point I believe it’s Jhb. A lazy mafia play would be trying to frame me based on Ank’s read of me and Delap. I’m not nearly as confident in Jhb as I was in Delap though I will say that My read was JHB. But that’s based on him coming after me with minimal real evidence. Soup reads clean to me He said after also repeatedly reminding everyone in every other post we have no actual info to play with |
|
