cf3234
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Post by cf3234 on Apr 15, 2020 17:28:47 GMT
Point 1: People who stay quiet are suspect Point 2: People who are too loud are suspect "All mafia needs to do is stay quiet and hope the RNG doesn't fall on them"
I didn't read this as
"People who stay quiet are suspect"
this. on day 1, the smart play by everyone is to take your shot and hope for the best. the people who are forcing activity day one are usually attempting to muddy the waters so when people look back, it's hard to decipher and everyone looks suspect. as the game progresses, the people who stay silent look more and more suspect. |
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Post by eric on Apr 15, 2020 17:29:24 GMT
3 bill - tim canes odin
2 ank - skrouse delap
2 odin - jhb bill
1 skrouse - soup
1 jhb - ank
no vote - druce
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soup
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Post by soup on Apr 15, 2020 17:31:56 GMT
"All mafia needs to do is stay quiet and hope the RNG doesn't fall on them"
I didn't read this as
"People who stay quiet are suspect"
this. on day 1, the smart play by everyone is to take your shot and hope for the best. t he people who are forcing activity day one are usually attempting to muddy the waters so when people look back, it's hard to decipher and everyone looks suspect. as the game progresses, the people who stay silent look more and more suspect. not really if you go back and look at our games |
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 17:34:20 GMT
If BK is executed and comes back town, who is under suspicion on day 2?
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soup
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Post by soup on Apr 15, 2020 17:36:54 GMT
I don't really think anyone comes back suspicious based on who is voted off day 1. It's too easy to hide two votes in all this.
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cf3234
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Post by cf3234 on Apr 15, 2020 17:40:48 GMT
does setting up tie votes get us anywhere?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2020 17:41:30 GMT
does setting up tie votes get us anywhere? it never has |
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Post by skrouse on Apr 15, 2020 17:41:42 GMT
I don't really think anyone comes back suspicious based on who is voted off day 1. It's too easy to hide two votes in all this. Agreed |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 15, 2020 17:48:28 GMT
does setting up tie votes get us anywhere?
only if the people tied are unable to vote-change and save themselves by killing the other. self-preservation is a heckuva cover.
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Post by jhb on Apr 15, 2020 18:02:17 GMT
I agree, saying what the maf could do to win and also what they could do to be sus is not contradictory. Am I missing something soup TimPig ? Point 1: People who stay quiet are suspect Point 2: People who are too loud are suspect There's a happy middle you've got to be in |
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Post by TimPig on Apr 15, 2020 18:10:17 GMT
Point 1: People who stay quiet are suspect Point 2: People who are too loud are suspect There's a happy middle you've got to be in Which is funny because that happy middle is different for everyone. |
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soup
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Post by soup on Apr 15, 2020 18:13:09 GMT
that's racist
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 18:28:13 GMT
Activity is pro-town.
That's different than shit-posting though.
Activity should be encouraged
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 18:34:08 GMT
does setting up tie votes get us anywhere?
only if the people tied are unable to vote-change and save themselves by killing the other. self-preservation is a heckuva cover.
It's really not. If someone blatantly acts in the interest of self-preservation at the deadline, they are either mafia or a shitty town. Only exception that immediately comes to mind is if we're in the late game where there's only 1-2 missed executions left. |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 15, 2020 18:43:41 GMT
only if the people tied are unable to vote-change and save themselves by killing the other. self-preservation is a heckuva cover.
It's really not. If someone blatantly acts in the interest of self-preservation at the deadline, they are either mafia or a shitty town. Only exception that immediately comes to mind is if we're in the late game where there's only 1-2 missed executions left.
I disagree... that only matters if there are power roles and they are choosing to save themselves as a normie over possibly killing a power. If you know you are town, self-preservation is a) rational (because you KNOW you are saving a town-member) and/or b) explainable to everyone else.
So... I think we could learn something from actions if there is a tie and the vote change to kill has to come from someone not involved in the tie.
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 18:55:39 GMT
It's really not. If someone blatantly acts in the interest of self-preservation at the deadline, they are either mafia or a shitty town. Only exception that immediately comes to mind is if we're in the late game where there's only 1-2 missed executions left.
I disagree... that only matters if there are power roles and they are choosing to save themselves as a normie over possibly killing a power. If you know you are town, self-preservation is a) rational (because you KNOW you are saving a town-member) and/or b) explainable to everyone else.
So... I think we could learn something from actions if there is a tie and the vote change to kill has to come from someone not involved in the tie.
A big part of telling who is town vs mafia is willingness to die. Town should be more willing to be executed as a general posture. Mafia should almost never be willing to die. Mafia are trying to survive. Town is trying to find the mafia. Deciphering the posts/actions of the players in that context is how you read games. What I think you aren't taking into account is how saving yourself can easily get you killed the next day: 1. On Day 2, Delap saves himself in a tie or near-tie situation. He does this because he KNOWS he's town. The person he votes up instead is executed and turns out to be town (this will happen a majority of the time). 2. On Day 3, Delap is voted out due to his previous actions of self-preservation that killed a Townie. That is a very possible order of events. Also, I would argue that there is almost a 0% chance that a vote change to kill from someone not involved in the tie would generate much useful info. There is only 2 mafia. Odds are low they'd so plainly reveal their connection. |
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Post by TimPig on Apr 15, 2020 18:58:23 GMT
1. On Day 2, Delap saves himself in a tie or near-tie situation. He does this because he KNOWS he's town. The person he votes up instead is executed and turns out to be town (this will happen a majority of the time). 2. On Day 3, Delap is voted out due to his previous actions of self-preservation that killed a Townie. This is why tying in this setup doesn't seem very helpful. It'd be one thing if the person who moved to saved himself could be investigated at some point, but now anyone can make the argument that they were just doing it because they know they're town. |
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 19:00:25 GMT
1. On Day 2, Delap saves himself in a tie or near-tie situation. He does this because he KNOWS he's town. The person he votes up instead is executed and turns out to be town (this will happen a majority of the time). 2. On Day 3, Delap is voted out due to his previous actions of self-preservation that killed a Townie. This is why tying in this setup doesn't seem very helpful. It'd be one thing if the person who moved to saved himself could be investigated at some point, but now anyone can make the argument that they were just doing it because they know they're town. Which is why, as a collective, the town should agree to punish self-preservation in this setup. |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 15, 2020 19:02:05 GMT
again... my original point was that a tie ONLY helps if neither of the people tied could flip to kill. Forcing someone else to make the choice is much more telling.
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 19:04:13 GMT
again... my original point was that a tie ONLY helps if neither of the people tied could flip to kill. Forcing someone else to make the choice is much more telling. Please explain how you would interpret someone not involved in the tie, breaking that tie, and ultimately executing a Townie. |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 15, 2020 19:08:39 GMT
again... my original point was that a tie ONLY helps if neither of the people tied could flip to kill. Forcing someone else to make the choice is much more telling. Please explain how you would interpret someone not involved in the tie, breaking that tie, and ultimately executing a Townie.
I would believe them to be reckless and suspicious.
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 19:09:34 GMT
Please explain how you would interpret someone not involved in the tie, breaking that tie, and ultimately executing a Townie.
I would believe them to be reckless and suspicious.
So you don't think anyone should break ties? |
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Post by jhb on Apr 15, 2020 19:10:40 GMT
Yeah I'm not sure what you're getting at
Unless you've somehow gotten half of the mafia in a tie (which, I think, is about a 1 in 6 chance) someone from the town is going to be forced to cast a vote out of necessity and that won't tell you anything because they'll just be guessing
If you've got two town in a tie no mafia is going to be bold enough to make a vote and risk it blowing up in their face.
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on Apr 15, 2020 19:11:03 GMT
I would believe them to be reckless and suspicious.
So you don't think anyone should break ties?
I don't see a real reason someone would in this set-up, no. But we have reckless folk about and they might.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2020 19:18:51 GMT
So you don't think anyone should break ties?
I don't see a real reason someone would in this set-up, no. But we have reckless folk about and they might.
Imagine playing mafia where the only traps you set are ones that a genius could fall into...
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Post by 👼Saint Panktrick's Day👼 on Apr 15, 2020 19:19:58 GMT
So you don't think anyone should break ties?
I don't see a real reason someone would in this set-up, no. But we have reckless folk about and they might.
Does recklessness signal that someone is mafia? If so, why? |
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Post by Druce on Apr 15, 2020 19:21:45 GMT
going delap on a hunch
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Post by jhb on Apr 15, 2020 19:24:27 GMT
Is the hunch that he hadn't really logically thought his position through? |
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Post by eric on Apr 15, 2020 19:30:45 GMT
3 bill - tim canes odin
2 ank - skrouse delap
2 odin - jhb bill
1 skrouse - soup
1 delap - druce
1 jhb - ank
30 minutes left
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soup
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Post by soup on Apr 15, 2020 19:34:18 GMT
I disagree... that only matters if there are power roles and they are choosing to save themselves as a normie over possibly killing a power. If you know you are town, self-preservation is a) rational (because you KNOW you are saving a town-member) and/or b) explainable to everyone else.
So... I think we could learn something from actions if there is a tie and the vote change to kill has to come from someone not involved in the tie.
A big part of telling who is town vs mafia is willingness to die. Town should be more willing to be executed as a general posture. Mafia should almost never be willing to die. Mafia are trying to survive. Town is trying to find the mafia. Deciphering the posts/actions of the players in that context is how you read games. What I think you aren't taking into account is how saving yourself can easily get you killed the next day: 1. On Day 2, Delap saves himself in a tie or near-tie situation. He does this because he KNOWS he's town. The person he votes up instead is executed and turns out to be town (this will happen a majority of the time). 2. On Day 3, Delap is voted out due to his previous actions of self-preservation that killed a Townie. That is a very possible order of events. Also, I would argue that there is almost a 0% chance that a vote change to kill from someone not involved in the tie would generate much useful info. There is only 2 mafia. Odds are low they'd so plainly reveal their connection. All this coming from the guy who at the buzzer inferred he was the cop and that timpig was mafia (later confirmed civ). |
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