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Post by eric on Mar 13, 2020 16:54:47 GMT
this is a thread for posts to feel less bad from Tess Lynch's LAWeather newsletter following LA school closures: My son suggested that he could teach his sister how to read. He volunteered to make a chart for jobs, like he had at school -- line leader, caboose, table leader. He said that he could make educational toys out of his old castoffs for his sister. I asked if he knew what an optimist was, and showed him our soap dispenser. "Half empty, or half full?" "I'd say neither. I'd say it depends on why you're asking. We still have soap. Don't be sad, mom." edit: with source tinyletter.com/LAWeather/letters/march-12 |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2020 18:35:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 18:48:00 GMT
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Post by TimPig on Mar 15, 2020 18:58:35 GMT
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Post by eric on Mar 15, 2020 20:32:00 GMT
just ariana grande casually name dropping the coronavirus bill pelosi got passed after midnight friday
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 5:38:22 GMT
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Post by TimPig on Mar 19, 2020 17:35:46 GMT
I feel like more stuff like this can/should be happening.
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Post by eric on Mar 30, 2020 19:14:09 GMT
Why I Have Reason to Hope This is the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States by date. How is this hopeful? Because if we plot the logarithm of the daily number of cases through March 24th, we get this handsome fellow...  ...which has become less and less linear ever since, which means we're no longer seeing exponential growth, which because of the two week incubation period means someone did something around March 10th that put us on the blue line instead of the orange line:  The NBA closed on March 11th, which was followed quite promptly by the other sports leagues, schools, and escalating to the various stay home / shelter in place orders we've seen from various states and the widespread adoption of social distancing. We cut the cases we would have had by 40%. It's working.Why I Have Reason to Double Down This is the number of new deaths per day divided by the number of new cases per day. Clearly it's wobbly, but the trend is going up and will only continue to do so since our healthcare system is already at its limit. If only 15% of the population are exposed to coronavirus, every percentage point on this graph is another half a million dead. If it reaches all 100%, three million. We can help. We ARE helping. Stay home. Stay strong. It's going to get so much worse before it gets better, but not as worse as it would have been.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 14:10:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 14:16:22 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 17:46:38 GMT
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Post by eric on Apr 10, 2020 15:24:30 GMT
a harry potter joke
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2020 0:28:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2020 12:43:14 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2020 13:56:51 GMT
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Post by pointyegg on May 7, 2020 19:22:28 GMT
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Post by eric on May 13, 2020 20:10:15 GMT
A Reason to Have Hope for the Future a lot of people these days have been talking about the seasonal flu, the average death toll, how we don't shut down for that but what if we did? this is what the CDC reports of seasonal flu looks like for this year relative to an average of the three previous years:  we went from having a somewhat worse than average (~150%) flu season to almost nothing (~2%) in a month. so what if every year we had a one week scheduled lockdown in the middle of January? could we cut the seasonal flu season by 10%? 20%? 50%? knowing the lockdown was coming, could we cut its strain on the economy by 75%? 90%? 99%? even though flu season was already mostly over by the time we started the lockdown (78% of flu cases occurred 3/7 and earlier the previous three years) we still probably prevented something like 5,000 seasonal flu deaths. i really think we could get an even bigger effect with a shorter shutdown so long as we employed it at the right time (only 24% of flu cases occurred 1/11 and earlier) there are a LOT of far broader lessons we can learn in this crisis, but i think this would be easy to implement and extremely appealing to those of us who survive it |
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Post by 👨🏼⚕️delapandemic🚑 on May 14, 2020 0:46:25 GMT
We could also be much more vigilant about flu vaccinations.
I like a multi-prong approach, though, to public health.
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Post by killybing on May 15, 2020 15:33:23 GMT
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Post by killybing on May 16, 2020 13:42:56 GMT
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Post by eric on May 17, 2020 1:10:47 GMT
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Post by killybing on Jun 5, 2020 16:17:16 GMT
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Post by eric on Sept 11, 2020 18:29:38 GMT
a prayer paraphrased from FDR's during d-day
Almighty God, our road will be long and hard. The enemy is strong. He will hurl back our forces. Success will not come with rushing speed, but we shall return again and again, and we know that by God's grace and by the righteousness of our cause, we will triumph. We will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest. Our souls will be shaken. We are lately drawn from the ways of peace. We yearn but for the end of battle, for our return to our haven.
Some will never return.
Embrace these, Father, and receive them into your kingdom. Let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage wheresoever it may be needed. And Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in you, faith in our children, faith in each other, faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events deter us in our unconquerable purpose. With your blessing we shall prevail over the unholy forces of the enemy. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace, a peace invulnerable, a peace that will let all of us live in freedom.
AMEN
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Post by eric on Sept 21, 2020 23:27:45 GMT
"Did you rise this morning, broken and hung over with weariness and pain and rage, tattered from waving too long in a brutal wind? Draw breath deep into your lungs; you will need it, for another day calls to you. I know you ache. I know you wish the work were done and you, with everyone you have ever loved, were on a distant shore; safe, and unafraid. But remember this, tired as you are: you are not alone. Here and here and here also there are others weeping and rising and gathering their courage. You belong to them and they to you and together, we will break through."
-Rev. Audette Fulbright Fulson
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Post by eric on Oct 17, 2020 2:05:16 GMT
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Post by eric on Oct 21, 2020 21:33:26 GMT
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Post by killybing on Nov 21, 2020 14:17:24 GMT
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