Post by eric on Feb 3, 2020 22:37:08 GMT
There were some perhaps overly credulous predictions re: Zion Williamson:
"While it may seem unlikely that Williamson will continue [74 TS%] production during the regular season, it’s worth noting that, collectively, high-scoring rookies don’t see huge decreases in their point totals and efficiency metrics when the real games start."
Williamson has, of course, seen a huge decrease in his efficiency metrics, plummeting to 64 TS%. It might seem that only 6 three point attempts out of 92 true shot attempts couldn't shift the numbers much, but if he had missed all 6 instead of missing 2 his efficiency would be 57 TS%. What's good for the goose isn't good for the gander, either, as rebounding from his 53 FT% to his preseason 69% would only bring him up from 64% to 66%.
I think one illustrative exercise is looking at all the players to manage 70+ FG% on 10+ PPG in NBA history...
1973 Wilt Chamberlain (and promptly retired)
2015 DeAndre Jordan
2016 DeAndre Jordan
2017 DeAndre Jordan
...and though we don't have the figures for 1973 let's look at the values for dunks / field goals for DAJ's three and ending with Zion this year...
66%
64%
61%
23%
...23%! Now I'm not saying this is a bad number - if we look at other super-athletic not-quite-primary-playmaker forwards like Kevin Durant pre-injury Blake Griffin and pre-injury Paul George and perform the same quotient we get 16% 31% and 16% respectively, so he's certainly in the right territory to be a star. (LeBron James illustrates the issues with using this metric for absolutely-primary-playmakers, since his number went from 15% in Cleveland all the way up to 19% one he was on a real team in Miami - he probably didn't get better at jumping in his late 20s.)
What I am saying is that there have been a lot of hyper athletic guys in the NBA, and if Zion's athleticism isn't far enough past them to compensate for his shooting being that far behind them it's unlikely he's going to be shattering any efficiency records. For reference, here are the 60+ FG% 20+ PPG seasons:
2006 Shaq 20 60.0%
2005 Shaq 23 60.1%
1988 McHale 23 60.4%
1980 Kareem 25 60.4%
1987 McHale 26 60.4%
1967 Wilt 24 68.3%
And here are the top six TS% 20+ PPG seasons:
1987 Barkley 23 66.0%
1990 Barkley 25 66.1%
1983 Dantley 31 66.1% (and missed the playoffs)
1988 Barkley 28 66.5% (him too)
2016 Curry 30 66.9%
2018 Curry 26 67.5%
Zion's not a more dominant athletic presence than Wilt.
He's certainly not a better shooter than Curry.
Charles Barkley was a notoriously terrible 3P shooter but after a shaky college 65 FT% he shot in the mid 70s from the jump in the Association, recording 73.3% in his first season and 73.5% on his career. If Zion can get back into the 60s from the line or(/and?) establish even a mediocre three point shot, that seems like the plausible model for him, not 'look he's running a lay up line on the preseason Knicks, he can probably do that for 82 regular season games'.
"While it may seem unlikely that Williamson will continue [74 TS%] production during the regular season, it’s worth noting that, collectively, high-scoring rookies don’t see huge decreases in their point totals and efficiency metrics when the real games start."
Williamson has, of course, seen a huge decrease in his efficiency metrics, plummeting to 64 TS%. It might seem that only 6 three point attempts out of 92 true shot attempts couldn't shift the numbers much, but if he had missed all 6 instead of missing 2 his efficiency would be 57 TS%. What's good for the goose isn't good for the gander, either, as rebounding from his 53 FT% to his preseason 69% would only bring him up from 64% to 66%.
I think one illustrative exercise is looking at all the players to manage 70+ FG% on 10+ PPG in NBA history...
1973 Wilt Chamberlain (and promptly retired)
2015 DeAndre Jordan
2016 DeAndre Jordan
2017 DeAndre Jordan
...and though we don't have the figures for 1973 let's look at the values for dunks / field goals for DAJ's three and ending with Zion this year...
66%
64%
61%
23%
...23%! Now I'm not saying this is a bad number - if we look at other super-athletic not-quite-primary-playmaker forwards like Kevin Durant pre-injury Blake Griffin and pre-injury Paul George and perform the same quotient we get 16% 31% and 16% respectively, so he's certainly in the right territory to be a star. (LeBron James illustrates the issues with using this metric for absolutely-primary-playmakers, since his number went from 15% in Cleveland all the way up to 19% one he was on a real team in Miami - he probably didn't get better at jumping in his late 20s.)
What I am saying is that there have been a lot of hyper athletic guys in the NBA, and if Zion's athleticism isn't far enough past them to compensate for his shooting being that far behind them it's unlikely he's going to be shattering any efficiency records. For reference, here are the 60+ FG% 20+ PPG seasons:
2006 Shaq 20 60.0%
2005 Shaq 23 60.1%
1988 McHale 23 60.4%
1980 Kareem 25 60.4%
1987 McHale 26 60.4%
1967 Wilt 24 68.3%
And here are the top six TS% 20+ PPG seasons:
1987 Barkley 23 66.0%
1990 Barkley 25 66.1%
1983 Dantley 31 66.1% (and missed the playoffs)
1988 Barkley 28 66.5% (him too)
2016 Curry 30 66.9%
2018 Curry 26 67.5%
Zion's not a more dominant athletic presence than Wilt.
He's certainly not a better shooter than Curry.
Charles Barkley was a notoriously terrible 3P shooter but after a shaky college 65 FT% he shot in the mid 70s from the jump in the Association, recording 73.3% in his first season and 73.5% on his career. If Zion can get back into the 60s from the line or(/and?) establish even a mediocre three point shot, that seems like the plausible model for him, not 'look he's running a lay up line on the preseason Knicks, he can probably do that for 82 regular season games'.